Hand in the cookie jar

tardigrade · #1 07-24-2004, 01:38 AM

I don't see many posts about stone cold bluffs, but I attempt them occasionally and get away with them more often than I deserve to.

The read on this table is loose, but a bit skittish. Unraised flops get a lot of callers. A preflop raise often results in a ghost town. This was my last orbit at this table.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks,

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Looks like it missed everybody. If I can pair up on the turn, I think I'm going to take down this pot.

Turn: (3 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Anyone slowplaying a 3? If so, there's not much time left to get your payoff.

River: (3 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero ???

Here comes the scare card. The river is the highest card out there, it's a spade, it checks to me. There's no way my 7 high is going to win this pot, so I have a 100% chance of winning $0 if I check. If I can bet and drag the pot one time in 4, I break even. But there are 5 players I'd have to fold out, and there may be some low pairs out there that will make a crying call, especially considering I'm last to act and my actions are suspect. Do I win this 1 time in 4? Or am I going to end up having a 100% of winning -$1 instead of $0?

bisonbison · #2 07-24-2004, 01:41 AM

3BB. Six opponents. You have 7 high. I'm thinking this is -EV.

Jaran · #3 07-24-2004, 01:48 AM

Hey tardigrade,
If I were going to bluff at this pot, I would do it on the turn. I think the 3 pairing up is a huge scarecard for a lot of party players.

-Jaran

tardigrade · #4 07-24-2004, 01:52 AM

Unlike many of these boards, where there could be 3 or 4 low pairs, I think I can rule out trip threes, pair of jacks, a flush, a pair of nines. The only two playable hands left are a pair of twos and ace high. I should calc the odds and see how many are likely to be out there in a field of 6, then it would be a matter of estimating how often they call. As it was, there was only one player who thought for a few seconds before folding. I was hopeful, but still surprised to see it happen. Perhaps she thought it was unlikely anyone would attempt a bluff into a field that big.

huxbux · #5 07-24-2004, 01:54 AM

This is a definitely a -EV play. You would have to fold everyone out 1 in 2.5 times just to show a slight +EV.

tardigrade · #6 07-24-2004, 01:56 AM

I believe it's one in 4 (or 3.5 to show a decent win margin) ... If I lose three in a row, I'm down $3, and if the 4th is a win, then I'm even again.

(EDIT: Another way to think of it is that when I bet, it's now a 4BB pot that I win when successful.)

bdk3clash · #7 07-24-2004, 01:56 AM

What mistake do Party opponents make more often: folding when they should call, or calling when they should fold?

No way a bluff here is +EV.

Danenania · #8 07-24-2004, 03:18 AM

This is a bluff that will LOOK like a bluff to most party players. They'll call you with anything. Or with nothing. Either way they'll call you a high percentage of the time. Don't get fancy in small pots. Bet when you got it, fold when you don't.