Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

[bobhalford]

Nice clear post Deranged. I attempted to make a similar argument when I wasn't so clear as to what I was saying. Reading your post makes it clear to me that this is definitely not a situation where you would wait until the turn because as you say: "We have a monster, and we need to extract value. In a huge pot where protection is difficult, sacrificing obvious value for marginal improvements in protection is really not the right way to go."

My answer was correct, but my thought process was no where near this level.

[JojoDiego]

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I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

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Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[W. Deranged]

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[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

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You're right. Waiting until the turn makes much more sense in situations where we aren't sure whether we have a lot of equity or not, and seeing a turn card will greatly define the strength of our hand. With monsters, pushing immediately is usually correct.

[bobhalford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. I think when I wrote that I meant that in general I will wait for the turn to put in a raise with a set. But that doesn't at all apply to this particular hand and situation.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. I think when I wrote that I meant that in general I will wait for the turn to put in a raise with a set. But that doesn't at all apply to this particular hand and situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Though it's off-topic, if you're always waiting until the turn to put in a raise with a set, in my opinion you're probably making a mistake like 80% of the time. Considering playing more aggressively on the flop with sets. I think you might like the results, particularly in multiway pots.

[bobhalford]

haha. good point. I often raise the flop with sets, probably more often than I should. Ironically the one thing that I'm now trying to incorporate in my game is waiting for the turn more often. I want to be able to identify these situation more clearly because I often jam the flop and worry that I'm losing money because of it.

[Toonces]

I agree that you should NOT wait until the turn to raise. For you to be willing to forego your flop equity, 2 factors need to be in effect:

1) You need to know that villian is going to bet the turn. I think that he is about 50% or less to bet the turn here.

2) You need to know what your "scare" cards are to know when to slow down on the turn. Clearly the spade is a scare card. however, a Q, J, or T could be bad, but is more likely to be very good, as it makes someone a worse 2 pair. If you don't know whether to slow down on paint, the flop call loses a LOT of value.

Finally, your flush callers are going to profitably call all the way, whatever you do. While the nut flush caller may profit from each additional bet, he's not making the money from you as you have equity as well. At least one person out there is probably drawing dead and providing you with equity.

[JojoDiego]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wait for the turn when I have a really strong hand like a set and there are no big draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this exactly the opposite of what SSHE advocates? I don't have the text in front of me, but doesn't it say if you have a really strong hand, you've got a big equity edge and need to push it immediately (except in rare slowplay situations)? And if you have a weak/vulnerable hand, you have a small equity edge and therefore it MAY prove worthwhile to wait until the turn before you push that edge?

My first thought was we have a pretty strong hand here and therefore a pretty significant equity edge, and therefore we must raise this flop to push that edge. However, I'm not great at estimating the total outs against us or factoring in the fairly remote chance we're already behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. Waiting until the turn makes much more sense in situations where we aren't sure whether we have a lot of equity or not, and seeing a turn card will greatly define the strength of our hand. With monsters, pushing immediately is usually correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hypothetical: What if instead of A-Ko, the Hero held A-Qo on this flop? Are we getting close to wait-until-the-turn territory then?

[WalkAmongUs]

I see your point but I disagree. Your analysis only takes into account 1 person with a weak draw, DwG. I think you must try to protect here against any hand with 6 outs or less. You didn't take into account any of these hands. You gained at most 3.5 SB on the flop. Winning this pot more often (even if its only 5% more often) will MORE than surpass this.

I'll say it again, the pot is larger, we should be trying to win it rather than extract every last SB.

Also, read on MP3 is aggressive. He also was raiser PF. I'm almost certain if you had just called on the flop MP3 would have bet this a large amount of the time. I think seeing him fold to the reraise may be influencing the estimation of the amount of times he will bet the turn if just called on the river.