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#1
08-24-2004, 09:59 AM
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What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
Yeah yeah, I know ... ridiculously broad question. But still ...
Today alone, I've had two runs of 300-400 hands running at a 2% win-rate (playing 2 tables @ $1/$2). This doesn't strike me as unusual, cold streaks happen, but I mentioned it to another player and he expressed "shock" at such a low-percentage run. Anyway, it seems that the more I work on my play, the more I find myself wondering just where that line between "normal" and "playing too tight" really is, in terms of overall win-rate (assuming competent preflop play), especially on loose games like party 1/2. In thinking about this, I know that if we just draw it out on every hand, I should win about 10% on a 10-handed table. Of course, that number includes hands that a competent player would toss preflop, plus others that wouldn't be worth calling to the river, so it seems to me that the number should actually be somewhere below 10%. How much below, I can't say. OTOH, a good player should also be able to use steals and other strategic plays to gain wins where just drawing it out would not get one, so there's an offset the other way, too. In my own experience, if I'm playing well and getting a reasonable card-distribution, I typically run between 8% and 11% (seeing 17-21% of flops, winning maybe 30% when I do). I think I'm playing reasonably well (or maybe a little tight?), but I'm really curious how this compares to others' experiences here. Do you think this is high? Low? About right? I know it's a very broad question, but any feedback would be greatly appreciated, as I'm still struggling a bit to find the zone at these loose low-limit tables. 
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#2
08-24-2004, 10:47 AM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
FWIW, from 900 hands in Poker Tracker I've seen 19.66% of all flops and won money 36.42% when seeing a flop. So I've won money 7.2% of all hands dealt to me. I've never really heard anyone reference this stat and I don't think it's that important. Numbers like VP$IP, PFR and Won $ at SD are much more important I think. If you want to improve your game, focus on those and everythign else will fall into place.
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#3
08-24-2004, 11:21 AM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
As evan said, i think youre focusing on the wrong stats. VP$IP, PFR and money won at showdown definiteily should have more importance. Also, 300-400 hands is an incredibly small sample and wont really tell you anything wortwhile.
As for your friend who is appalled by a losing streak of 300-400 hands, I'm guessing he hasnt played much limit?
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#4
08-24-2004, 11:49 AM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
... especially on loose games like party 1/2. [/ QUOTE ] Party 1/2 isn't that loose, compared to .5/1 or 2/4. As far as win rate, your only concern should be BB/100, not % of hands won. I only win around 6% of my hands at all levels. But my BB/100 at 1/2 right now is about 3.2, which I've been told is very good. Not sure how much higher is sustainable (over the long term... like 50K hands) at that level... maybe 4 BB/100 if you do a really good job selecting loose passive tables. I wouldn't recommend spending the "long-term" at 1/2, when 2/4 is much juicier. More players to the flop; less pre-flop raising in my experience. 1/2 is good practice, but you should aspire to 2/4, IMO.
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#5
08-24-2004, 12:12 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
if your goal is to win a lot of hands, then just stop folding.
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#6
08-24-2004, 12:57 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
if your goal is to win a lot of hands, then just stop folding. [/ QUOTE ] this is pretty funny. not very nice, but funny enough that it's worth it.
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#7
08-24-2004, 01:50 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
You won't win 8%-11% of the hands in the long run. More like 5-7% with very little variance on this number in the long run.
These types of posts are very meatless. Post some hands, going through 300-400 hands of a bad streak of cards doesn't mean anything. Try going through 2500-5000 which can happen. So to recap, post hands where you think your play was either great, bad, or questionable. Don't look at stats much, as they mean little until you have around 30k or above (there are a few stats that poke their head up around 10k).
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#9
08-24-2004, 01:52 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
11K and counting .... [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I forget how many my friend (played tons) either had 10k or 15k of bad cards or just bad turn/river jobs. Hard to stay in there mentally. But you got the skills and abilities. Stick in there!
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