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#21
08-24-2004, 04:26 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
BB had AK or TT-88 maybe? [/ QUOTE ] When he didn't 3-bet me on the flop and just checked the turn, I figured TT. Oh, he only had AA! Outplayed! 
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#22
08-24-2004, 04:59 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
The total win percentage is an interesting statistic. I suspect it provides some insight into whether a player is running well or badly. If you have a good BB/100 rate over a few thousand hands but your win rate is high that is some indication that you may have been more lucky that good.
LAGs win the most pots and tight/passives win the fewest. Any tight player should expect to be well below average. Note that average is not 10% because 1) PT doesn't handle splits correctly (partial or side pot = whole win) and 2) my average Party hand has only about nine active players. Win rate does not compare well between different good players. Most of a player's winnings come from the core hands that "everyone" plays. Beyond that there are a lot of slightly +EV/neutral/slightly -EV hands that some people play. The more of those you play the higher your win rate but profits are not significantly affected. Also some players (like me) tend to avoid tables with a few empty seats while others enjoy them or even seek them out. This greatly improves their win rate. Another use of win rate is comparing games. One way I can tell that Paradise is tougher than Party is because my win rate is higher at Paradise. Yes, that does make perfect sense if you think about it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
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#23
08-24-2004, 06:39 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BB had AK or TT-88 maybe? [/ QUOTE ] When he didn't 3-bet me on the flop and just checked the turn, I figured TT. Oh, he only had AA! Outplayed! [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, like you would have folded at any point in that hand.
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#24
08-24-2004, 07:09 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
No, but if I were him, I'd take a different approach starting on the flop. I'd either...
A) 3-bet and lead the turn. B) Call and check/raise the turn. There's just no good reason for him to start calling down yet after I raised his flop bet. He's seeing monsters under the bed.
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#26
08-24-2004, 08:18 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
i'm usually a little over 7%...
when im at 4-5% i've been running really bad. when i'm at 10-12% that means the cards have been pretty gush-darn good. i've had a couple of 0-2% streaks in there too.
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#27
08-24-2004, 09:51 PM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
[ QUOTE ]
At the card barn I play at in NYC, they did a promotion where for every pot you won you got a ticket, and once you had 100 tickets you qualified for a freeroll tournament for a plasma TV or something. Anyway, it was really interesting to see the loose/bad/losing players with a mountain of tickets in front of them. They'd be stacking their little tickets and yelling "chips!" at the same time. It was like a physical manifestation of the concept that bad players win way more pots than good players, but still end up losing money. [/ QUOTE ] 14th St.? Gypsies?
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#29
08-25-2004, 01:02 AM
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Re: What\'s a \"reasonable\" long-term win-rate at Party $1/$2?
Thanks, this is very much the kind of info I was looking for. I'm looking at this basically as an indicator of "running good" vs. "running bad" (as opposed to anything more significant), but I've been finding myself more and more unsure of my basic reference points, and wondering if rather than "running bad" I'm simply playing too tight for the situation. From the responses I'm seeing here, it looks like my overall experience is pretty consistent with what should be expected, which helps put my mind at ease.
I also appreciate the responses about 1/2 vs. 2/4. I actually prefer to play at larger limits (up to about 10/20, with the occasional 15/30 session), but my bankroll is WAY down this year (due to a nasty non-poker-related situation), so I'm stuck playing lower limits for now (I am working to build up a bankroll, but I'm literally playing to pay my bills right now, so the outflow makes it tough). I figured they'd be easier games, and they are, but the adjustments (not to mention the "playing for my rent" situation) are clearly messing with my head a bit.
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