Flushes are easy 20/40 - Page 2

blumpkin22 · #11 11-25-2005, 12:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just a thought, no deep analysis here, but a quick skim of your hand made me think to call 6th and raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

lstream · #12 11-25-2005, 12:49 PM

I think a "decent but not great" player will call fifth without the king, especially if he doubts you have the flush. Now if this was Chef for example, I would give her credit for a proper read, and decide that she very likely has the king.

If I was drawing to a flush and saw your board, I would fold the hand without the king, especially considering that the queen of spades is no where in sight.

blumpkin22 · #13 11-25-2005, 01:03 PM

You definitely have a point about him putting Hero on aces rather than spades. But I still think a fold has to be correct without the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If Hero catches another spade on sixth, are you still going to draw? It could get ugly. But definitely many players will call there, putting Hero on aces because they want that to be his hand...

Now, if Seat 1 reraises 6th street, is there any way Hero's hand is good? Is getting the extra bet on fifth street worth losing the extra bets when Seat 1 didn't draw to a sucker hand?

I guess Hero has some straight flush outs...ha.

lstream · #14 11-25-2005, 01:35 PM

Well, I have never played 20/40 so I don't know how many players there are capable of making the all important misread here. Down in the minor leagues of 5/10 where I hang out, there are enough mediocre players for me to go out on the limb and raise on sixth. Unless of course, the hand is against a known solid player.

jon_1van · #15 11-25-2005, 01:41 PM

Remeber, the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is dead. So he can't have the Q. And you are showing JT. So its alot harder for you to beat him if he has a flush (and he thinks you have a flush).

I'd probably 3-bet here. But it's close.

blumpkin22 · #16 11-25-2005, 03:54 PM

Let us suppose:

1. If Hero raises and Seat 1 has the higher flush, he will reraise, and Hero will call down.
2. If Hero raises and Seat 1 does not have the higher flush, he will not reraise but will call down.
3. Also, suppose that Seat 1 has a flush; if he actually has two pair the situation is in fact slightly worse since he has redraws.

That is, by raising sixth street, Hero gains one bet if ahead and loses two bets if behind. Thus, Hero needs to be correct (i.e., have the better hand) 2/3 of the time for a raise to be correct.

(I am neglecting the 1/17 chance that Hero makes a straight flush. If this happens, and case 1 occurs, and Hero will gain 3 bets: two extra bets will be put in on sixth street, and one extra one on the river. If case 2 occurs there is no difference.)

You still like a raise?

benwood · #17 11-26-2005, 02:53 AM

6th:He expects you to bet if he checks.If he felt confident that his hand was best,it is likely that he would check-raise.I think your hand is still good.

#18 11-26-2005, 04:52 AM

I say raise givin the info you provided with the hand and player involved. He is very unlikely to be full; the 8's are dead and he would've raised on 3rd with trips. There is a good chance he has a flush also, but probably not AK. Anything lower you have dominated, plus you still have the one card (K) royal draw for back up if he does have the K. The odds are with you to make it 2 to go on 6th.

blumpkin22 · #19 11-26-2005, 08:54 PM

I think you are missing the point. The point is that if Seat 1 should not draw to a flush without the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] if he thinks there is a good chance that Hero has a flush. Given the information of the exposed cards, I think it is clear that Seat 1's most likely starting hand was 3 hearts. Thus although on third street there was no reason to think he had the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], on fifth street there is some reason to believe he does have it. Now, certainly he won't always have that card, and he sometimes he will not even have the flush. And as lstream mentioned, Seat 1 could very well be misreading Hero's hand. But he has to at least give strong consideration to the possibility that Hero has a made flush.

But the point is he has to have the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fewer than one third of the time (see previous post) for raising sixth street to be correct. It's close, but I think calling may be a better option than raising.

Perhaps this is giving my opponent too much credit, but it is not a situation where giving him too much credit is costing the pot. At worst it is costing Hero one bet.

#20 11-26-2005, 11:51 PM

The main reason that villain may not have the king of hearts is that he puts hero on split aces, with a possible flush draw here, and thus he thinks that any flush is good. The betting sequence could be identical if you did have a high pair.

I think that the question of whether to raise or not is quite close, however. If you raise villain may well assume you have the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole, and not three-bet even if he does have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

There are nine hearts missing, and assuming villain has two in the hole, then the chance that he has the AK high flush is 2/9. This is assuming he is not good enough to fold an A high four flush on 4th or fifth without the King. In that case, a raise is correct.

The question seems to me then just to be a read. Is the player good enough to fold an ace high flush draw on fourth or fifth without the king of hearts. If yes, then call down. If he is unlikely to think of things like this, then raise.