"A Pair of Fours" Again

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

A while back, I played a hand which featured a pair of fours. When I posted the hand on these forums, the response was simply incredible. I noticed on our Gossip forum that it was mentioned again, so I thought I would post the essay, that I wrote about it (from my book Poker Essays, Volume III.)

By the way, this is copyrighted material, so I would appreciate it that no one repost this essay anyplace else. But all comments are welcome.

Best wishes,
Mason

A Pair of Fours

Perhaps the most famous hand I was ever involved with occurred in a $15-$30 hold ’em game at The Bellagio in late May of 1999. I thought the hand was interesting and casually posted it on one of our Internet forums. By the time the smoke cleared, the hand was all over the Internet, and there were several hundred posts discussing the pros and cons of my play. Because of this I thought that it would be worth repeating here, and give some of the reasons for my strategy. Here goes:

Four players had limped in and I had

4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

one off the button. I called, the player on the button raised, both blinds called, and all remaining players, including me, called. (Eight of us saw the flop for two bets each.)

The flop came

9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The player in the small blind bet, two players to his left called, I called, and the player on the button called.

The turn was the 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It was checked to me and I bet. Only the player in the blind called. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] came on the river. We both checked and I won the pot with my two fours. (The player in the blind had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].)

As innocuous as this hand might first appear, it stirred up a hornet’s nest. Here are the reasons why I played as I did, plus some other comments.

First, it should be obvious to most readers that I am suppose to call before the flop with my pair of fours. I am simply getting enough multiway action to try to flop a set. (And calling the subsequent raise is of course a no brainer.)

My call on the flop is much more controversial. Generally, calling on the flop in a multiway pot with a pocket under pair is a mistake that only weak players make. But I felt that this situation was an exception since there were 19 (small) bets in the pot. It is only 22-to-1 for me to turn a set. There are 19 bets in there already, and if a four comes I could win as many as 35 bets, assuming my hand holds up. So at first this appears to be a very easy and profitable call. (However, note that if I did not hold the 4♦ my call would be wrong. This is because I don’t want to turn a set at the same time someone else makes a flush since two diamonds flopped.)

But there is a problem. The before the flop raiser is behind me and if I knew that he would raise again it would cut my immediate odds down to 12-to-1 assuming everyone calls and no one else reraises. If this happens my call will become a mistake.

Nonetheless, it was still right to call. There are three reasons for this. First, the before the flop raiser doesn’t have to raise again. Since my implied odds were overwhelming, it seemed like I had enough cushion to chance the raise. Second, if the player behind me raises again, he may just have two big cards and is trying to buy a free card. If this is the case and he succeeds, his raise has helped me as much as it has hurt me because I now get to look at fifth street for free and given that 12-to-1 is easily worth it. Third, his raise may tie on other players who may now be drawing close to dead assuming the four does come. So even though my immediate odds may drop, I may gain some extra bets which will partially counter balance this.

Well this call stirred up a firestorm. Some posters pointed out that I play terribly and am a known steamer. Others said that this was a highly fluctuating play which should be avoided or that the call could be made by an expert since he would be able to play the hand well enough to show a profit, while a typical player can’t.

Let’s answer these one at a time. First, whether I play badly or steam has nothing to do with whether the play was correct. Even terrible players or those on high tilt can accidentally make the right play, and even if the negative comments are true, there is no reason why my strategy can’t still be correct.

Second, this is actually a low fluctuating play. The vast majority of the time I will put my money into the pot (on the flop) and throw my hand away on the turn. Occasionally I will win a big pot, and on very rare occasions I will hit my four and proceed to lose a few more bets. This is not what causes big swings to your bankroll.

(Straying from the subject a little, big swings are usually caused by hands like suited connectors. This is because you frequently flop a draw and then have to put a lot of money into the pot on both the flop and the turn in pursuit of completing it. Now you either win a lot or lose a lot, though you usually win more than you lose.)

Third, an expert player and a mediocre player should play this hand exactly the same. If a four comes you will either bet or raise, and if a four doesn’t come you usually fold when someone else bets. There is very little “real” skill in your fourth street strategy.

But something totally unexpected happened on fourth street. The bottom card paired and there was no bet. When it was checked to me I realized that there was a chance I had the best hand and therefore betting was absolutely mandatory.

In fact, this is the key to my fourth street bet. If I do have the best hand, and with no bet to me there is a reasonable chance that this is the case, I must knock out every hand that might be drawing to beat me. Since anyone who stays will have at least 6 outs to my hand, I need to eliminate them.

The concept here is simple. When the pot is very large, I must do everything possible to increase my chances of winning it. For example, if one of the callers has a hand like K7 he has six outs to beat me. Since three people folded when I bet, I may have eliminated as many as 18 outs against me. (Note that if someone has better than six outs, such as a flush draw, they won’t fold.) In addition, if I get someone to fold a hand like two fives (which beats me), I have just made a hugely profitable play.

Notice that there is almost no reason to bet on the end. If my remaining opponent has a better hand than I do, he will simply pay me off and I will just lose another bet. If his hand is worse than mine, he will simply fold and I gain nothing by betting the best hand.