KK, top set and I'm bet into by EP...wait for turn to raise? - Page 3

car ramrod · #21 10-06-2005, 04:27 PM

Raise the flop.
You are lucky eveyone is trapped right now, I doubt they will all call the turn bet.

#22 10-06-2005, 04:29 PM

Even UTG is getting a little more than 8-1 on the turn if we just call, and BB bets. You could make a case even for lone gutshots calling at that point. I think the question is this: what could they fold on the turn that they would call on the flop? This pot is pretty big whether we raise or not.

The variables have been laid out here, though there is some disagreement over where to peg them. For me, I figure:

Chance the BB bets again on the turn if I call: Good, assuming a straight card doesn't come down

Chance that most if not all of those in between us call the turn bet: Good

Even the prospect of BB's flop 3-bet is a little overrated, if there's even much of a chance it will happen. UTG is getting almost 10-1 calling those two cold. Tough to fold a decent draw.

DCWildcat · #23 10-06-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop.
You are lucky eveyone is trapped right now, I doubt they will all call the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 wannabe · #24 10-06-2005, 04:32 PM

you raise this flop and embrace the $$$$$$$$$$ dancing around your head

waiting until the turn gives up WAY too much value you know you already have - and replaces it with an amount of value you're not sure of (albeit, at double the reward). you could also get the best of both worlds (i.e. getting bet into or check-raised on the turn), or re-raised on the flop.

#25 10-06-2005, 04:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But I have more value waiting for the turn don't I? I'm getting value on a BB raise, not a SB raise aren't I?

[/ QUOTE ]

If EP bets the turn AND several people call on the turn, then yes a turn raise will give you more value. But that is not super likely and you're giving up too much flop value to take that chance.

tor · #26 10-06-2005, 05:09 PM

With so many trapped between, I raise. Most, I find are more willing to dump on the turn, but will almost always call just one more on the flop. Against two or less opponents, I'll call.

#27 10-06-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
They call flops, not turns. Raise it up.

[/ QUOTE ]Best logic here. You are going to get 3 sb's that are going to be folding on the turn to any bet. So the cost is, in reality, minimal, for good hand protection.

MN_Mime · #28 10-06-2005, 05:18 PM

*grunch*

I'm raising it now. The pot is already big and your hand is too strong to worry about protection; you want value.

Calling the flop may well result in everybody checking to the PFR and you bet and the flop bettor may raise knocking everyone out and losing you bets.

Raising even disguises the strength of your hand from people who will expect you to cold-call so you can pop a safe turn card with your 'AK'.

SCfuji · #29 10-06-2005, 05:21 PM

do it nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Felipe · #30 10-06-2005, 05:31 PM

Ya..raise right now. There are no guarantees EP will be again. See the problem here. I didn't raise cause I thought no body will call without something. Slowplaying low limits has not be exceptionally good for me. I think playing it straightforward is ++ev. They don't know they are drawing (near) dead.

PokerStars (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB calls.
 Ya, questionable CC here. I could outplay these guys post flop though.
Flop: (8.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds.

River: (9.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 12.20 BB