UB 5/10 NL river decision

[Ulysses]

4-handed. Not super-aggressive. Villain is not very aggressive, but not a pushover either.

I am SB with $2423 .
Villain is CO with $4190.

Villain standard opens for $35. I call w/ Qs Js.

Flop 4d 6s Qd

I check, he bets pot $80, I call

Turn (4d 6s Qd) 4s

I check, he checks

River (4d 6s Qd 4s) 7s

I pot $240, he pot-raises to $960 straight.

Your move?

[AZK]

Just out of curiousity, why don't you bet the turn? Because you really want to see the river if he raises?

[Jeebus]

something tells me he is on a busted diamond draw and/or two pair possibly even AQ but i doubt that. The pot sized bet tried to steal the pot then, it didn't work so he checked hoping to hit the flush. I would call this bet assuming that I would lose 10-20% of the time to a higher flush. Definatly wouldn't reraise as the only hand that is going to call is the nut flush.

edit:I just noticed the pair of fours, that looks like boat play there but i still think i call.

[ninjia3x]

I think there is a good chance that he was holding QQ

His pot size bet was prob to charge you for u'r flush draw or any other draw you may have.

At this point, he prob put you on a diamond's flush draw, and when the board pairs, he prob was just waiting for you to hit your flush so he can win a huge pot.

But in this case u didn't hit u'r diamnd flush, but the spades flush, but i guess that works for him too.

of course AKs is also possible, but a raise that large with the board paired seems unlikely.

[Big_Jim]

Obviously, you're only beat by the A and K high flushes, both of which are backdoor, or a boat.

On the flop, I'm assuming that he would probably throw out a continuation bet with most holdings, so we can't narrow down his hand range much based on that.

His check behind on the turn says that he either has a boat, and is trying to trap, he is giving up on his continuation steal and has nothing good, or he caught a flush draw and doesn't want to risk getting check-raised.

If you raise on the river, you have to raise it to at least $2000, which gives you no room to fold to his re-raise. Furthermore, there are only a few hands that can call this raise that you have beat, and you're not folding anything better than your hand, except for maybe the K high flush.

With the stack sizes and the action so far, I call. If my read on villian says that he is really tight, I think you might actually find a fold here.

[Big_Jim]

Furthermore, would he really raise the pot with a boat? Not much that he can really put you on to call that raise with.

[Jman28]

I would call.

Firstly, I think a reraise is out of the question, as I can't put him on any hand that you beat and would call you.

The was it played out looks a lot like AdKd. AsKs is possible, but his flop bet makes it look like he likes his hand more than that, at least to me. Worst case, they're each just as likely, which gives you odds to call.

As for the boat, I find it very unlikely. Firstly, there are only 2 Qs left in the deck. Next, he checks the turn with two flush draws on board, which is ill-advised (in my inexperienced opinion) with the boat. He should give you good enough odds to call on either draw, but not just check and let you fold when you miss.

The straight-flush would be very likely on Party, but on UB, I think they don't rig it as hard, and their RNG isn't as predictable.

[Swede]

How often will you see TT or JJ here? I would strongly consider laying this down.

[Jman28]

Now I'm having second thoughts, as I'm not sure what he could put you on. I would think he would put you on either a flush, boat, or bluff... maybe AQ?

With that in mind, AK might just call your river bet, which would hurt my original theory.

Man, I knew I shouldn't have tried analyzing a hand in Mid-High Stakes.

[Atropos]

I dont play that high and my thoughts are totally worthless but:

a) Raising is out of question, cant get a better hand to fold or worse hand to call.

b) Calling/Folding is close, but I think that calling is better. I suspect that your opponent had a full house and tried to trap, because the turn card was very safe for him he checked. The only reason he would check the turn without a full house is if he picked up the flush draw. Considering you are a good player and your call on the flop and pot bet on the river cant give him any real information about your possible hand ranges a bluff would not be profitable for him there. That's why I think he has you beat and fold is best.