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Old 12-28-2005, 03:31 PM
winky51 winky51 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 122
Default Only logical play IMO

Ok heres one to shoot at you. I sat down and nodded my head to all the answers but then they all can't be right. So I stopped and put myself in the bad player shoes.

Now since we are sure SB has an ace whats the chance any of the bad players having an ace? Not too much. thats 3 aces out of 4 with 4 players at the table. So my guess is that none of them besides the SB has an ace.

So since none probably have an ace why would they call if you called? I think probably a draw only.

If they had 2 pair or better they would push anyways. Bad players push with 2 pair or better on drawing flops. They think "I got 2 pair, I better push so no one draws out on me".

So SB bets 100, we call and 1 donk calls with his draw, the SB will push on the turn for 550 into the pot of 420. So its 550 to win 970. Not correct odds on the turn to call. if I was SB and 2 players called that flop I'd guess my ace was good and push the turn. Even if they had me out kicked a lot of times the pot will be tied and I will at least get my money back.

So my conclusion is to raise 300.

Scenarios: SB bets you raise
A. No one wants to play, SB folds you win.
B. Donk has a hand and pushes, SB folds, you call with 15 outs, good! Figure the SB would realize he is beat by at least one and fold.
C. Donk calls with a draw, SB would push I think. SB might think the big stack is trying to push him out but because of pot odds he pushes, good now you push.
D. Donk calls with a draw, SB folds feeling he is beat. Turn comes you push, good. Most of the Donks draws are beat by your high card and him pairing makes you your draw, good!

If you call and a donk pushes the SB will probably fold my guess. Now you are heads up with the donk. if the donk just calls the SB will will push the turn and now you don't have odds.

I think raising gets you the best of all worlds.
You either win right there with the suspicious raise to 300 giving the SB equity to fold his weak ace. If the donk calls for a draw and the SB pushes you have enough to reraise all in and got dead money in the pot. If the SB folds you can push the turn and win vs the draw. You showed strength on the flop and on the turn. donk aint calling an all in with 1 card to come and if he is he's probably behind.

If for whatever reason the donk cold calls with 2 pair or a set he is giving you odds (CC because he is scared you have a biger set or 2 pair. Now on the turn SB goes all in you call and donk calls still giving you odds.

So I say raise 300 logical?
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