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Old 12-14-2005, 04:50 PM
Nomad84 Nomad84 is offline
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Default Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

I apologize up front for the excessive length of this post. I wrote this recently, and have been debating over whether or not to post it. You can skip the first two paragraphs if you like. They mostly give you a little bit of my background along with a little bit of work history/job options stuff.

First I should probably give you a little background about me. I have always been an overachiever. I'm a perfectionist. I try to challenge myself, but in doing so, I don't give myself enough of a break to just relax. In middle school, I started taking more advanced classes (mainly in math) and I finished my high school's math curriculum freshman year. I went to a different school during my junior year, where I took much more advanced courses in math and science. I had spent a lot of my time studying and doing homework before that, but that year was way more than I cared to work, so I went back to my home high school to take things easy and enjoy my senior year. During that year, I took several college courses. I ended up graduating high school with 46 hours of college credit.

The summer after graduation, I had a wreck, which forced me to miss a semester of college. Since then, I've been at OU studying mechanical engineering. I've always been interested in building things, designing things, and understanding how things work. I've had an internship the past two summers, so I've seen how their engineers work and what they do during the course of a normal work week. I didn't like what I saw. I don't want to work 50-60 hrs/wk fixing broken equipment. I could do it, and I could make decent money at it, but it doesn't interest me much. Ultimately, I think I would like to work for NASA or some sort of aerospace company. I can't say for sure though, since I don't know enough about exactly what it would be like working there. Even so, I am pretty sure I would enjoy working there. I am very interested in space and the related technology. In fact, I'd probably be willing to work there for very low pay as long as it covered my expenses. I would probably stand a much better chance getting a job there if I had a master's degree, but I haven't really looked into it enough to know for sure. I am somewhat interested in getting a master's just for the sake of learning, but I haven't done much about it. I will graduate from OU in May 2006, but I don't have any real plans for getting a job (I should be looking now) or going to grad school (should have already made plans). I'm looking into a couple of options with the Air Force (civilian) or the Navy (officer), but I'm not sure that's what I want to do. I figured the AF deal would probably be a good stepping stone to working with NASA eventually.

Right now, I'm at a point where I just really don't know for sure what I want to do with my life. That brings me to poker. I don't have any delusions of playing poker long term, but I think it might be best for me after I graduate. I am seriously considering taking a semester or two off of school to play poker, travel, and enjoy life for a little while. After that, unless I am making lots and lots of money playing poker, I think I want to go to grad school. I just feel like I need a break. Aside from my semester that I spent laid up in front of the TV unable to move without hurting my arm (after my wreck), I haven't had any significant amount of time to relax and enjoy life since middle school. I think part of my problem is that I try too hard at most everything I do. I don't really allow myself to half-ass anything. In a way, I think that keeping this "semester long break" or "year long break" frame of mind will allow me to give pro poker a shot without any substantial strings attached.

I've read Ed's "Going Pro" articles. I think I fit his criteria well:

[ QUOTE ]
1. You have no dependants. You have no children, parents, significant others, or otherwise whose lives will be adversely affected if you end up broke. I’m not saying that going pro is impossible if you do have dependants, but my advice in these articles is inappropriate for someone who supports others.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check.

[ QUOTE ]
2. You have a Plan B. If you do go broke, do you have an alternate plan? Can you easily pick back up where you left off with your old job? These articles are for you only if leaving your job will not set you back significantly should you fail as a pro.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no job now. I don't think it would be significantly more difficult to get a job in the future than it would be immediately after graduation, but I'm not sure about this. Also, as I said, I would like to go to grad school anyway, I think.

[ QUOTE ]
3. You are healthy with no chronic problems or risk factors. Jobs usually provide health insurance, and playing poker does not. While you should buy health insurance on your own as a professional, your insurance probably won’t be as good or economical as what you would get with work. Don’t play games with your health.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am young and in good health. If I need routine health care, I believe I can get it at a relatively low price because I am Chickasaw, but I need to look into this. I used to be quite a bit overweight, and I still am to some extent, but I have changed my eating and exercise habits and lost quite a bit of weight. This should have positive effects on my health as well.

[ QUOTE ]
4. You really want to play poker for a living. You want to play poker fulltime because you love the game and hope to spend more time playing. You aren’t looking for a quick or easy buck. You play poker for fun first and money second.

[/ QUOTE ]

I enjoy it a lot. I don't know if I enjoy it enough to play it for the rest of my life, but that isn't my goal.

[ QUOTE ]
5. You already play fairly well. You don’t have to play particularly well to be a professional these days. This is one area where old material on going pro is obsolete. Three years ago, you had to be quite a good player to generate enough income to live on. Now, with online play and so many terrible players, you merely have to play decently to generate significant income. But you do have to be a winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have enough hands at my current level to be able to say for sure what my win rate is, but I am confident that I am a winning player and that I play significantly better than my competition. One of my goals for the next semester is to more up a couple of levels, hopefully, and to put in more hands to confirm my ability.

[ QUOTE ]
Specifically, I have in mind a young, single person with relatively few expenses. If you quit your job, you can find an equivalent after six months to a year of layoff with relatively little trouble. Your response to the idea going through every dime you have is, “Oh well, I guess I’ll just have to go get a job,” not, "That would be a disaster."

[/ QUOTE ]

That pretty much sums it up.

[ QUOTE ]
I feel that long-term success as a poker pro requires strength in four areas:

1. Financial Planning
2. Self Discipline
3. Emotional Control
4. Playing Ability

The first three are truly crucial, and they are mostly what I will discuss in this series of articles. Nowadays, most failures can be attributed to deficiencies in the first three areas: A mediocre player who is otherwise completely solid will likely succeed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always been pretty tight with my money, and I am very confident in my money management ability. I have enough money right now that I could make it for a year without doing anything at all if I wanted to, so I won't be in bad shape if I lose my bankroll. I have no college loans to worry about. My parents paid for my car, but I will begin making the payments after I graduate. That will only take about 15 more payments at around $400. I have no other debt that to worry about. My conservative estimate is that I can get by comfortably on $2000/month, plus taxes and savings. I don't expect to have any problems making 50% more than that easily, which will help with my savings goals. If I do well enough, I'd like to go to Europe for a couple of months while I still can (read: while I don't have a job to worry about). I think that my self discipline and emotional control are good. Losing sucks, but I don't feel that I let it get to me. I don't expect the first three points to be any problem for me.

I don't have enough experience to know where I stand in terms of playing ability. All I know is that I am capable of winning up to the 3/6 level. I play 5/10 now, but I only have about 2500 hand so far, so I can't say for sure what I am capable of there. So far, I feel that I have a definite advantage over the opponents that I have played. I would like to play higher than that, and I am being more aggressive about moving up that I was in the past. I don't know the level of play at the higher limits, but I suspect that I can make it at least one or two levels higher before I hit a wall, and possibly more than that. Regardless, I think I can earn enough money playing the 3/6 to live on, even if I can't hack it at the higher levels.

[ QUOTE ]
If you play well and plan well, you have a great chance to succeed. Never forget that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am confident that I can succeed at playing professionally for at least a year, which will probably be my goal if I decide to go through with it, but I am still not sure that it's what I am going to do. What I am really looking for is a discussion of why I should or should not give it a shot. What effect will this have on my life as an engineer, if I do in fact decide to get a "real" job afterwards? What about grad school? What are the cons of being a professional? (I know most of the pros of it.)

How should I approach my parents about it? They already know that I play a lot and that I'm fairly successful at it. Of course, they were skeptical when I first started, but they've begun to accept the fact that maybe I actually can make money at this. I think that they would be supportive, but I think that they would be very concerned at the same time. I talk to my mom regularly, and I tell her how I'm doing. I've been making good money over the last couple of weeks. Everytime I talk to her, it seems like I'm up another few hundred bucks. She jokingly asked "What are you going to school for again?" last time I talked to her, but I'm not sure how she'd take it if I just said, "You know, you're right." If I decide to go through with this, when should I tell them? I'm thinking it might be best if I waited until I have more hands in so that I can show them more data (graphs, etc.) to support the decision. Also, if you know of any other great threads or articles besides Ed's, please let me know. I would also like suggestions on books to read regarding playing professionally. I believe that Gambling Theory and Other Topics has some related content. Is this correct?

Thank you for reading this far. I would appreciate any thoughts and input you have on this.
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  #2  
Old 12-14-2005, 05:03 PM
ZenMusician ZenMusician is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Are the Queens called Quoons?
Posts: 77
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

I appreciate you sharing your story. Thank you.
I am a very cynical person...but I am going to be
very nice here. You fit the profile for the lifestyle
necessary to play. Good. I have a huge problem with
your experience.

If I was hiring an auto mechanic would I choose the
hard-working perfectionist who has really only
worked on his own car or the indifferent jerk who
has 2500 cars under his belt and does the job
well?

Pro is short for professional, yes it is a profession.
I like electronics, but I would never consider going
pro because I am not an expert at it and could not
compete with better more trained technicians.

You do not get performace reviews or yelled at
when you don't do well at poker...all you have
are your own tools to monitor and improve
your success.

With your small sample of playing and win rate
you are excited by the prospect of the card life.
I have done it. It was not exciting. You do not
have the tools yet to decide whether you are
BOTH a winning player and truly can handle
the pressure of HAVING to making a profit.
Yes, some days you will lose...and some weeks
AND some months!

The effort you would put into becoming a great
player could honestly translate into a fantastic
job with a better lifestyle. Rewards come to those
who work hard - no matter what field you are in.

You must ask yourself: What do I love the most?

Best of luck

-ZEN
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  #3  
Old 12-14-2005, 06:09 PM
ianlippert ianlippert is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 88
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have enough hands at my current level to be able to say for sure what my win rate is, but I am confident that I am a winning player and that I play significantly better than my competition. One of my goals for the next semester is to more up a couple of levels, hopefully, and to put in more hands to confirm my ability.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most people are going to come down on you for this. I've played for just over a year. I'm not a pro, and I doubt I would want poker as a career but I would love to be able to make some serious money off of this. I can beat the small stakes games but have been having trouble breaking into the bigger games. I have had months where I was making $60/hr and months where I broke even, and I'm still basically a break even player. I have a job so when I have a losing month I dont start freaking out, I can move down a level. But those kinds of pressures are what you are going to have to deal with.

I'm sure there are lots of talented poker players that cant go pro because they dont have the skill to handle the pressure. You may be able to beat individual games, but you may not be able to beat the psychological aspects of long term poker. Your lack of hands suggests that you have no idea whether or not you are capable of playing successfully long term. You really shouldnt be thinking of going pro until you have over 100K hands or have played for for 1-2 years. Most people that are going to respond to you are going to say something along these lines.
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  #4  
Old 12-14-2005, 06:18 PM
sdc sdc is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 61
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

i say get ur masters and play cards

if ur good enough at cards u should not have to work to support urself and should leave u plenty of time to play

take the summer off and begin classes in the fall, take the minimum load to remain full time

or maybe get an internship for the summer, and play during off time

at this particular time in ur life u have the advantage of not having to put all ur eggs in 1 basket....

u can do both, probably for another year or two while u get ur masters
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  #5  
Old 12-14-2005, 09:17 PM
Nomad84 Nomad84 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 194
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
With your small sample of playing and win rate
you are excited by the prospect of the card life.

[/ QUOTE ]

More precisely, I am excited by the thought of taking some time off to enjoy myself, while making a little bit of money at the same time.

[ QUOTE ]
I have done it. It was not exciting. You do not
have the tools yet to decide whether you are
BOTH a winning player and truly can handle
the pressure of HAVING to making a profit.
Yes, some days you will lose...and some weeks
AND some months!

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that I don't yet have a large enough amount of experience to say for sure that I can beat my current limit long-term. However, I do know that I can beat the lower limits. I addition, I won't have the pressure of having to make a profit. I have enough savings that I just don't "need" the income. I don't expect it to be too much different from my current situation in that regard. Right now, I'm a student with no job, who happens to play poker. I am living off of my savings, primarily, but I am also making more than I am spending each month. If I don't, it isn't a problem. If I do, great. I expect to have a year's worth of living expenses when I graduate, which should result in relatively low financial pressures. If I have to move down in limits, it won't be a problem. As painful as it would be, I could make enough money to get by just by 4-tabling the .5/1, although obviously I don't want to do that. Also, as far as poker being "exciting," I don't expect it to be a lot of fun to put in hundreds of thousands of hands, but I expect it to be better than the alternative, at least for a while. Keep in mind that I really am only interested in doing this for a year or so. I also think it would be worth it for the freedom it would provide for vacations, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
The effort you would put into becoming a great
player could honestly translate into a fantastic
job with a better lifestyle. Rewards come to those
who work hard - no matter what field you are in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand this, and I know that I will most likely make more money as an engineer, but I expect to work as an engineer anyway eventually. I am really just interested in taking a break to get a better idea of what I really want to do. I still think I would like to go to grad school, but I think I may have waited too late to start in the fall, since I haven't taken the GRE or submitted any apps. I'm not even sure exactly what I'd like to study if/when I do go to grad school.

[ QUOTE ]
You must ask yourself: What do I love the most?

Best of luck

-ZEN

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the advice and kind words.
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  #6  
Old 12-14-2005, 09:44 PM
Nomad84 Nomad84 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 194
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have enough hands at my current level to be able to say for sure what my win rate is, but I am confident that I am a winning player and that I play significantly better than my competition. One of my goals for the next semester is to more up a couple of levels, hopefully, and to put in more hands to confirm my ability.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most people are going to come down on you for this. I've played for just over a year. I'm not a pro, and I doubt I would want poker as a career but I would love to be able to make some serious money off of this. I can beat the small stakes games but have been having trouble breaking into the bigger games. I have had months where I was making $60/hr and months where I broke even, and I'm still basically a break even player. I have a job so when I have a losing month I dont start freaking out, I can move down a level. But those kinds of pressures are what you are going to have to deal with.

I'm sure there are lots of talented poker players that cant go pro because they dont have the skill to handle the pressure. You may be able to beat individual games, but you may not be able to beat the psychological aspects of long term poker. Your lack of hands suggests that you have no idea whether or not you are capable of playing successfully long term. You really shouldnt be thinking of going pro until you have over 100K hands or have played for for 1-2 years. Most people that are going to respond to you are going to say something along these lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your response. As I mentioned in my response to Zen, I don't expect to have too much in the way of financial pressure. If I really wanted to, I could take the year off and do nothing and still have enough money to get by, so even if I had to grind it out at the micros, I wouldn't be hurting for cash. Obviously I'd rather not do that, though.

Regarding the last point, I agree that I should have a great deal more hands. I currently only have around 35K total at all limits, which is obviously not enough to say anything conclusive about any particular limit. I've also only been playing seriously since the end of February, and I didn't play much over the summer since I was working full-time. I plan to put in a lot of hands next semester, so hopefully I will have a better idea of where I stand before I graduate. I understand that most people will find my limited experience to be a problem, but that's not what I'm most concerned about. As I said above, I could grind it out at the micros if I absolutely had to, but I don't expect to need to.

I guess my point is really that my ability to make a living playing poker isn't even my main deciding factor. I am really more interested in what effect this might have on my career. How much more difficult will it be to get a job a year after graduation if I have a solid resume minus that year? Is it more difficult to get accepted into grad school after taking a break? Is it more difficult to get a fellowship? These are really bigger considerations. Based on my 35K hand sample, I can say with 99.6% confidence that I am a winning player. I'm positive that I can at the very least not lose too much money playing poker, and that's all that I actually would need to do.
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  #7  
Old 12-14-2005, 10:02 PM
Nomad84 Nomad84 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 194
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
i say get ur masters and play cards

if ur good enough at cards u should not have to work to support urself and should leave u plenty of time to play

take the summer off and begin classes in the fall, take the minimum load to remain full time

or maybe get an internship for the summer, and play during off time

at this particular time in ur life u have the advantage of not having to put all ur eggs in 1 basket....

u can do both, probably for another year or two while u get ur masters

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if I play poker for a while, I still plan to get my masters degree, and I will probably play poker while I do that also. I could intern at the same place I have for the past two summers if I wanted to. The pay was pretty decent for a summer job. I think it was around $21/hr or something. I didn't have much off time to play this past summer. I had an hour long drive each way to work, so I was basically gone 11 hours/day. I spent time in the evenings visiting with my family, which basically left weekends. I spent some time playing on the weekends, but that's about it, and I don't imagine it would be much different this summer. I'm really not too interested in working there again, but I can if I need to. They've already invited me back for the next summer.

I considered starting grad school next fall. I don't even know if that's possible now since I haven't really prepared to do that. I haven't taken the GRE yet and I haven't applied anywhere. I don't even know where I want to go yet, or what exactly I want to study. That's part of what I want some time to consider. As I mentioned in the OP, I do have a couple of possibilities for jobs after graduation, but I don't know if it's really the direction I want to go. I think this really just boils down to me being unsure of what I want to do with my life, so I'm considering playing poker for a while until I can figure it out.

Thanks for your suggestions.
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  #8  
Old 12-14-2005, 10:42 PM
pokerjunky pokerjunky is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 163
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

All I can say it's tough, it's stessful, and it starts to suck really bad after about the fourth month. I went pro for about 6 months, made about 25K four tabling 3/6, then took a nine to five job for considerably less money. Although you may be skilled enough to earn a living at it, you have to be emotionally prepared for a roller coaster ride. Turned out I wasn't. Grinding out 30 - 40 hours a week only to break even for that week is tough, and believe me, it will happen to you if you play long enough. I may be making less money now, but at least I have peace of mind and can play poker as a hobby rather than a job.

Of course, theres other problems that go along with going pro:

1. Forget about getting a loan or credit card

2. No health insurance or 401K

3. You can't really enjoy the money you make since most of it belongs to your bankroll anyway

4. You become too obsessed

5. You get an uneasy feeling when somebody asks what you do for a living.

Anyway, good luck! By the way, if you need 2K/month to live on, you need to expect to win at least 4K to make up for the bad swings, unexpected expenditures, and the fact that no one will let you borrow money (except maybe your parents).
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  #9  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:13 AM
lighterjobs lighterjobs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 908
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Forget about getting a loan or credit card

2. No health insurance or 401K

3. You can't really enjoy the money you make since most of it belongs to your bankroll anyway

4. You become too obsessed

5. You get an uneasy feeling when somebody asks what you do for a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

these are all really good points you should take into consideration. btw, which OU do you go to?
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  #10  
Old 12-15-2005, 12:26 AM
EStreet20 EStreet20 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Sayreville, NJ
Posts: 109
Default Re: Is pro poker right for me? [LONG]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your response. As I mentioned in my response to Zen, I don't expect to have too much in the way of financial pressure. If I really wanted to, I could take the year off and do nothing and still have enough money to get by, so even if I had to grind it out at the micros, I wouldn't be hurting for cash. Obviously I'd rather not do that, though.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey dude,
Good luck either way but looking at this paragraph I;m wondering about how much you;ve taken into account as far as living expenses go. Many people can make great livings playing online living off "mommy and daddy" but looking at your estimated income/savings plan in previous post you won;t be making a killing playing and paying for a place. Not that it's not livable, but compared to the potential you have according to your other posts, as far as academcins/career prospects go, your poker career would pale in comparison by far.

Good luck,
Matt
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