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  #11  
Old 12-09-2005, 11:18 PM
plus_man plus_man is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

[ QUOTE ]
I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure this wasnt Baltimores total after teasing it? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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  #12  
Old 12-09-2005, 11:20 PM
plus_man plus_man is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

Im sorry. I misread.
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  #13  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:08 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

I seriously doubt they include totals. I checked, and teasing the over with 21 points hits at 95.61% (counting ties as losses). That's enough to make it +EV to blindly tease all overs. Remove the highest 3rd of the totals, and you're up to 96.34% and a teaser win-rate of about 69%.
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  #14  
Old 12-10-2005, 09:06 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

I don't have time to read all the responese - likely someone else answered correctly but just in case . . .

A teaser is a parlay of 2 [or more] events; these events range in likelyhood of occurrence from ~ 68% (6 point line move) to upwards of 90% in the case of this 21 point line move.

In order for this wager to be +EV, the [average] chance of each individual selection winning must be > 95.5%.

I'll leave it to someone else to explain how one arrives at this exact figure.

- Also, the use of the word "average" is not technically correct but the precise explanation would be extremely complex (translation: I might very possibly botch it [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

*

A 6 point teaser must feature two selections that each have an expected success rate greater than the square root of .5 (50%) to be +EV since this bet pays even money.

The sq. root of .5 is ~ .7071 (sq root of 50% is 70.71%)

Did this help ?
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  #15  
Old 12-10-2005, 09:17 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default There are

several sites that offer this wager.

WWTS used to, and still may.

5dimes offers teasers from +6 to +21 and everything in between. (5, 5.56, 6.5, 7, . . . 9.5, 10 10.5 . . . 14, 15, 16, 17 . . . 21).

The payoffs at 5dimes are about as good as any you'll find on the 'net.

I don't play teasers so it's a moot point for me but if you do this is a good place to do so.

They also have reverse teasers (aka "pleasers") where you GIVE 6, 6.5 or 7 points and get an inflated payoff rather than a reduced one.

There the outcome of any event is less than 100% you'll find a line on it here.

Division III football ?

- Uh huh

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL ?

- Uh huh

*

And they pay !
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  #16  
Old 12-10-2005, 09:25 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

Do ties lose ?

Never noticed that before.

Better stick to the half-point games [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #17  
Old 12-10-2005, 09:32 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

Totals are allowed; team totals are not.

I am checking as we speak to make certain this has not changed but it has been this way for years.
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  #18  
Old 12-10-2005, 09:37 PM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Default Re: 21 point teaser EV question

All their other teasers use the "ties count as no action and the teaser reverts to a one-fewer-selection bet" - it's not likely they'd have one rule for 6 point teasers and a different one for 20 pointers.
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  #19  
Old 12-11-2005, 05:29 AM
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Default Info

I have been looking into this further. 5 dimes offers monster teasers up to 20 points. A ten team teaser lays odds of -250. In the NFL you can tease sides, totals, and team totals. In the same bet you can also tease 1st half totals and 1st half sides.

Its a little late now but you can also use the 20 points on college totals and sides but not team totals. Do it in the same bet as NFL games.

Interesting numbers for this week you could bet-
Chicago o2
chicago/pitt o5.5 for the first half
texas +27
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  #20  
Old 12-11-2005, 07:00 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: Info

[ QUOTE ]

Interesting numbers for this week you could bet-
Chicago o2
chicago/pitt o5.5 for the first half


[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, these are interesting.
[ QUOTE ]

texas +27

[/ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem so interesting to me.
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