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  #31  
Old 12-19-2005, 03:01 AM
Joe Tall Joe Tall is offline
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Default Re: A8o

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your like a man possessed...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true, however, it's not at all w/protecting my hand. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I believe it's the correct line in this particular situation.

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scared of a little variance, quit playing SH LHE

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It's been 25yrs of SH play and I'm not going to stop now, nor will I ever.

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i like to get value when i flop the nuts.

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I hear you, but it's not like you have AT on a T-high flop, [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

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OP, river, ez ez call. of course call.

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At least you and I actually answered Sublime's original question as many avoided it and we agree on the call too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #32  
Old 12-19-2005, 03:13 AM
flawless_victory flawless_victory is offline
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Posts: 144
Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
scared of a little variance, quit playing SH LHE

[/ QUOTE ]

It's been 25yrs of SH play and I'm not going to stop now, nor will I ever.

[/ QUOTE ]
wow, really? i thought you were a 20something...


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OP, river, ez ez call. of course call.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least you and I actually answered Sublime's original question as many avoided it and we agree on the call too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
ya, its not the best spot ever... but we have only three decisions and 2 of them look pretty silly against described player, so i dont see what there is to discuss.
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  #33  
Old 12-19-2005, 04:04 AM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
The likely hand is overcards and his read indeed was...
[ QUOTE ]
There are lots of gungho LAG-TAGs who will raise this flop because they are the PFR and it's their turn

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That's what the OP was tying to do.

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OP really has no read beyond roughly TAG. Consider that 18/17/5 over 60 hands means roughly 10 VP$IPs and 9 PFRs preflop. He's probably seen about 12 flops total and his postflop AF = 5 is probably about 10 bets+raises divided by 2 calls.

The statistical significance of all this is roughly nil. I assume Villain is probably some sort of TAG and I'll bias that range a little toward the tight side. That's my read.

If sublime doesn't think that's a fair assessment of what he knows about Villain then he can adjust my play advice accordingly.

[Side note: that Villain only called once preflop in 60 hands really looks like a fluke. We all have to defend our big blinds and complete the small blind sometimes. If all your playable starting hands in a small sample happen to be PFRs then of course the AF is apt to be abnormally high.]
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  #34  
Old 12-19-2005, 04:11 AM
PokerBob PokerBob is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
c/r that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i cannot believe i wrote that. After looking at the stats of button, i want to bet and have him pop the flop. wow am i weird.
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  #35  
Old 12-19-2005, 05:54 AM
kiddo kiddo is offline
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Default Re: A8o

Everyone seems to think that a TAG will raise AK on this flop so when he raises turn we have to call it down.

When BB bets out he normally got a pair, even if this flop is pretty drawish. And if he got a pair, he will not give this up, and if he got 8 we are often getting 3bet if we raise on button with our overs.

But if TAG on button call and SB (auto)calls, we got a pot of 9SB and since we probably have to hit anyway I dont see the problem of keeping another guy in.

Also, on turn BB will normally not bet a draw again if both players call flop, but more often if its HU. And if BB was betting a really weak pair he will bet this to less often, maybe he will give up if turn is a bit scary, maybe thinking its to big chance SB is hit by a better pair.

But lets say TAG raises this flop with good overs like AK or AQ. What will he do on turn those 7/8 when he dont hit? Bet again when he just thought other guy flopped a pair? Take a freecard and call river since now we showed weakness? Check and fold river?

If SB folds and BB calls we get 1 to 4 on our flopraise, if we are 3bet even worse. If we just call and SB calls we are getting 1 to 8.

Also: If the TAG on button really wanted the other guy to fold because he thought he was behind attacking on this ragflop with a loose guy in SB got to be wrong? A turnraise if a scary card hit is much stronger, that will often make SB fold and can make BB fold a small pair (or even a pair of 8s). Call flop and raise turn if it is J or higher is a good line, at leat if we think BB is capable of folding a pair.

Maybe what everyone says is that other players - but not me! - would raise this flop with overs. But I think I see it a bit to often from TAGs to really believe this.
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  #36  
Old 12-19-2005, 06:33 AM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe what everyone says is that other players - but not me! - would raise this flop with overs. But I think I see it a bit to often from TAGs to really believe this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I certainly wouldn't raise this flop with AK. There is no reason why a TAG BB would bet out unless he wanted to be raised. If he just wanted to have the flop value bet he would checkcall or checkraise. That's really all Button needs to know about his overcards.

It's also very worth remembering this is a button steal. AK or the like is an unlikely hand. Could be K7 or T9 or ...

I'll fold a lot of steal hands in this situation when BB bets. Why should I try and make something out of QT when I think the BB has a pair and SB is still to act? Thanks for the warning.
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  #37  
Old 12-19-2005, 07:12 AM
kiddo kiddo is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
It's also very worth remembering this is a button steal. AK or the like is an unlikely hand. Could be K7 or T9 or ...

I'll fold a lot of steal hands in this situation when BB bets. Why should I try and make something out of QT when I think the BB has a pair and SB is still to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, good points, agree with both
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  #38  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:02 AM
Wynton Wynton is offline
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Default Re: A8o

I'll probably get flamed for this, but is the turn an obvious call?

With very little info on villain other than that he might be somewhat reasonable, doesn't his turn raise tell us we're likely beat?

Maybe this is an easy decision for most of you anyway, but my uncertainty about the turn is another reason I'd prefer to c/r the flop.
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  #39  
Old 12-19-2005, 11:36 AM
Joe Tall Joe Tall is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
wow, really? i thought you were a 20something

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes, really, I'm a 30-something, easy decade on the average 2+2er.
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  #40  
Old 12-19-2005, 12:21 PM
sqvirrel sqvirrel is offline
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Default Re: A8o

[ QUOTE ]
i felt like he had a hand on the turn for sure, but getting 7 and change to call with 4+ outs + the bluff % and i figured i should call.


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But you aren't getting that much if you intend to call a river bet as well. And considering that if you improve you probably only get one additional bet out of villain since you are oop, your implied odds to peel aren't all that great either.

Villain has to be bluffing around 40% of the time for calling down to be correct here because around 15% - 20% of the time he will improve to win anyway.

With implied odds and discounted outs you are getting around 7.5:1 to either peel then check-fold the river unimprovedor to peel and bet/call the river if you hit one of your 5 outs. Your hand is barely good enough to do this.
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