q10s, river flush meets giant c/r

[wdeadwyler]

If my hand is good enough to call this river, is it good enough to push.

Villain is 73/10/1.23 and 24 wtsd after 50 hands. He appears very loose and quite aggresive. His range includes any sort of flush or maybe air? Probably a flush.

Fold? Call? Push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($65.85)
Button ($45)
SB ($60.40)
BB ($79.40)
UTG ($45)
MP ($169.03)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $30</font>, Hero ??

[4_2_it]

I'm pushing here. Your river bet looks like a weak steal attempt. If he has an overflush, then he takes my stack. The straight also hit so it's hard to put him on the nuts here.

[ajmargarine]

That's a tough spot, because to villian it doesn't look like you have a flush. After all, who bet's that flop with a flush draw? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] (nice play there btw) I'm not pushing this. I error on the side of caution. If he can c/r a better flush on the river, he can have $30 from me there; but, I don't see any reason to give him another free $30 on top of that.

[kurto]

It might help to know how he got his stack that high. Stealing a lot or showing down good hands.

A lot of aggressive players make huge stacks bluffing or who are willing to put all their money in with a low flush and are up against people who will call them with 2 pair, a straight, etc.

Is he bluffing at every scare card?

Also... regarding the overbet he's making; is this standard for him? Presumeably he's done this before and there's been some showdowns... how strong was his hand?

I'm certainly not folding my hand to a guy that loose. The question is do I reraise. And to answer that, I want to know the answers to my questions above.

If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river? Tough spot if you don't know where you stand (and if you're beat and you push; you're set to lose a lot of money)

I'm inclined to push because of his stats

[kurto]

"If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river?"

I suspect I could answer that question if I'd been sitting at the table for awhile. I'm willing to bet if he's willing to make this overbet with something like a straight or a really weak flush, he's not going to fold to the allin (which would be nothing more, at this point, then a minraise)

Do you think the villain is going to raise it $30 then fold for $30 more?

I'm not worried about being beaten in this spot by an opponent with those stats, and therefor I push. I think its more likely that you have HIM overflushed here if a flush is what he has. His hand range for this can be HUGE given the action. If he planted this elaborate trap on me while im holding the 3rd nuts, he can pat himself on the back for his brilliance and take that extra 30 off me. He calls with a lot of holdings you beat here.

[wdeadwyler]

Actually I hadnt seen him show down much of anything, and I suspect he stole two hands from me, so I think he thinks he can push me around. If villain HAD a set or 2pair, he is NOT folding to the push, just my read at least.

[Rockatansky]

All you can eat, baby. He's not folding a baby flush, a set, or probably even top two for $30 more.