80/160 hand against J.A. Sucker

[MNpoker]

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River c/r time.

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Why?

Seems to me there are two ways to get one more bet on the river.
- You bet he makes a crying call
- You check he makes a bluff bet

(If number 1 > number 2 then a bet is in order)

Other possibilities:
He has a ace (smaller or bigger) or some other hand that beats you (not sure how this is possible).
- You bet he raises you call (win or lose 2 bets)
Usually I would expect you win, but will be unwilling to risk a 3 bet.

- You check raise he 3 bets (Are you laying it down?). Lose 3 bets almost always.
Usually I would expect you lost.

I would do the hand combo thing but I find that the assumptions of creating what's possible is so wide that a 'feel' is better in this case than some numbers with potentially large errors.

[daryn]

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not to be rude (we all have to try and be on best behavior lately) but this looks like a yawner

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Is my play standard then? I feel like I botched one street.

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the turn? are you thinking you should have led out because he checked behind, possibly with a draw?

[James282]

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Bay 101

I've been in the game about an hour or two and I talked to Sucker briefly before he got in the game so he knows who I am, and I know him, etc... He also knows that I haven't played a whole lot of the 80 game, I've usually been playing the 40.

Sucker sits down and posts behind the button, it's folded to him and he raises, Button and SB fold, I call in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] . We're heads up.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, he bets, I raise, he 3-bets, I call.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, he checks

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

Comments on all streets appreciated.

Results and thoughts later.

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I'd check-raise the river.
-James


EDIT: God damn you gambler for responding first! But seriously, if it isn't obvious his hand is Ax or unpaired flush draw on the turn, then I am really out of touch with how live poker plays. Check-raise the river and cackle loudly.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River c/r time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Seems to me there are two ways to get one more bet on the river.
- You bet he makes a crying call
- You check he makes a bluff bet

(If number 1 > number 2 then a bet is in order)

Other possibilities:
He has a ace (smaller or bigger) or some other hand that beats you (not sure how this is possible).
- You bet he raises you call (win or lose 2 bets)
Usually I would expect you win, but will be unwilling to risk a 3 bet.

- You check raise he 3 bets (Are you laying it down?). Lose 3 bets almost always.
Usually I would expect you lost.

I would do the hand combo thing but I find that the assumptions of creating what's possible is so wide that a 'feel' is better in this case than some numbers with potentially large errors.

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You need to use some hand-reading here. It's highly unlikely that Sucker has anything besides a missed draw or an ace. Both of which he should bet on the river, one of which he will not call a bet on the river.
-James

[Brian R]

Here is what I'd do. 3 bet preflop 90% or the time and all just 10% of the time. If he raises me on the flop I'd 3 bet about 60% of the time and call 40% of the time. If he 4 bets me I check fold turn otherwise check/call the turn. The river I bet out about 70% of the time and c/r 30% of the time....

[bicyclekick]

You're giving up quite a bit by not check/raising the river.

[Michael Emery]

Am I going to be the first one to have to beg for a three-bet preflop here or what? I assume you didnt do it for deception purposes and possibly thought you might be able to extract more from him later on? Is this worth it?

Mike Emery

[brick]

If he got sucker to go 3-bets with a worse ace or draw then it was worth it.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River c/r time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Seems to me there are two ways to get one more bet on the river.
- You bet he makes a crying call
- You check he makes a bluff bet

(If number 1 > number 2 then a bet is in order)

Other possibilities:
He has a ace (smaller or bigger) or some other hand that beats you (not sure how this is possible).
- You bet he raises you call (win or lose 2 bets)
Usually I would expect you win, but will be unwilling to risk a 3 bet.

- You check raise he 3 bets (Are you laying it down?). Lose 3 bets almost always.
Usually I would expect you lost.

I would do the hand combo thing but I find that the assumptions of creating what's possible is so wide that a 'feel' is better in this case than some numbers with potentially large errors.

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this is just wrong.

AK bets the turn. his most likely hand by far is an ace. this is a standard river checkraise. especiallyy given pf call.

Barron

[mike l.]

3 bet preflop and c/r the river.