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View Poll Results: Your action?
Fold 4 12.12%
All-in 29 87.88%
Voters: 33. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 11-21-2005, 02:35 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Posts: 66
Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks. (RESULTS)

[ QUOTE ]

I think if he is bad enough to call with 8, don't you think if you lead 2/3 pot on river, he might reraise and then make a crying call there? So there is a chance you get his stack anyway if he has the 8 and there is some good chance he calls you 2/3 pot size with any other marginal hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's an alternative line. However, I think he won't often pay off even a 2/3 pot without an 8, and I think I'll get paid off much less on average when he has an 8. Some players would check-raise with only an 8, and then feel pot-committed to call a push, but some players would fold to a 3-bet and many would just call rather than check-raising.
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  #22  
Old 11-21-2005, 10:55 PM
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Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

Assuming you and opponent both know that one of you has the nuts, or that you have nothing and opponent has a bluff catcher...

[ QUOTE ]

If I calculated correctly, the optimum bet size is pot*(p^(-1/2)-1), where p is the probability that your opponent has the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get... solve this quadratic for B:

(1-B)(1-B+BN-2N) = BN(1+B-BN)

Then set

W = 2B(1-N)/(1-B+BN)

C = BN/(1-B+BN)

This assumes no splits and opponent never bluff raises.
N: prob opponent has nuts, given you do not
C: prob opponent calls, given no nuts
W: amount to wager in units of the pot
B: amount of time to bluff (proportional to amount of time you have nuts)

Add: If W exceeds betable amount, or B exceeds bluffing opportunities, then adjust using equation for W=. Maybe other conditions or something I'm missing.
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  #23  
Old 11-22-2005, 06:56 PM
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Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

Okay, rested now. So these equations work out to:

B = (1-sqrt(2N)) / (1-N)
W = 2 (1-sqrt(2N)) / sqrt(2N)
C = N (1-sqrt(2N)) / (1-N)sqrt(2N)

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
N B W C
1% 0.867 12.1 0.061
5% 0.720 4.32 0.114
10% 0.614 2.47 0.137
15% 0.532 1.65 0.146
20% 0.459 1.16 0.145
25% 0.391 0.83 0.138
32% 0.294 0.50 0.118
40% 0.176 0.24 0.079
50% 0.000 0.00 -----
</pre><hr />
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  #24  
Old 11-22-2005, 07:03 PM
Voltron87 Voltron87 is offline
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Posts: 1,326
Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

[ QUOTE ]
how is this even remotely interesting
2/3 or pot it

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #25  
Old 11-22-2005, 07:10 PM
soah soah is offline
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Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

You gave us no information about what conditions he'd need to checkraise the river. If he'll checkraise you there with an eight then the money all goes in no matter what you bet, so that case should be entirely ignored and you should focus on how much to bet to get called by other possible hands that he could have.
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  #26  
Old 11-26-2005, 01:39 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

[ QUOTE ]
You gave us no information about what conditions he'd need to checkraise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know I usually just call with 1-card low straights, but I still don't know whether he would have check-raised with just an 8. It's up to you to make some guesses, just as I did at the table.

[ QUOTE ]

If he'll checkraise you there with an eight then the money all goes in no matter what you bet,

[/ QUOTE ]
That assumes he will check-raise 100% of the time with an 8 and that he will call a 3-bet all-in 100% of the time. Particularly if the initial bet is small, the reraise all-in is much scarier than an open-push.

You might find a player who would fit these assumptions, but they are bad unless you know you have run into such a player.

[ QUOTE ]

so that case should be entirely ignored and you should focus on how much to bet to get called by other possible hands that he could have.

[/ QUOTE ]
That seems penny wise and pound foolish. You're making some bad assumptions about a potential 380 BB pot so that you can focus on getting a few extra BB from weak hands.
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  #27  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:03 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Another example.

Villain (SB) has 245 BB.
Hero (CO) had 262 BB.

Preflop:
3 folds, MP raises to 2 BB, Hero calls with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 1 fold, Villain calls, BB calls.

Flop (4 players, 8 BB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 checks, Hero bets 8 BB, Villain calls 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB, 1 fold.

Turn (3 players, 32 BB): 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB, Hero raises to <font color="red">80 BB</font>, Villain calls 72 BB, 1 fold.

River (2 players, 200 BB): J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero pushes for 172 BB, Villain calls 155 BB.

Villain has Q5o. Hero wins 510 BB-rake.

The analogous action in this hand was that I raised far more than normal on the turn. The point was to knock out flush draws while keeping the low straights. A side effect was that it left the villain pot-committed on the river even when the flush card hit.
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  #28  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:19 AM
Mercman572 Mercman572 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 261
Default Re: Small pot, deep stacks.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how is this even remotely interesting
2/3 or pot it

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we sometimes fall victim to group think and different points of view get ignored that would benefit alot of people if they were to be considered, as in this case. If someone takes time to post something, they obviously think it's interesting. I think Phzon's point of the overbet is actually very interesting, and rather than ignore someone that looks for alternate lines we should consider them in a cost/benefit or EV analysis to decide if they do have merit. Personnaly, I have whiffed quite alot in situations like this, but probably not enough to lose EV to a 2/3 pot that weaker hands would call. NH
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