Small pot, deep stacks.

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When your bet represents either the nuts, or a busted draw just pot it.

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That's not what game theory says.

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yeah as far as I was aware the correct bet is all-in

but this assumes a perfect oponent, so although I agree that an all in bet here is best, but for different reasons

tanget - I think when the stacks are deep enough, and you have the nuts but it's possible he does to, I think an all-in is incorrect. If you don't want this thread to be hijacked, that's cool, phzon, but I'd like to hear your thoughts

[Proofrock]

I like at least three answers here, and would mix my play between these three.

(1) Standard value bet (whatever yours is - 1/2 to full pot seems good)
(2) All-in.
(3) 70BB - I choose this if I think there's a good chance Villain will see my overbet as a bluff and will put me all-in. this option is only really available because of the deep stacks. However, since your description of Villain seems pretty loose/passive, I'd choose option (1) or (2), depending on my mood. I'd reserve option (3) for a LAG opponent who likes to push.

-J.A.

[Bukem_]

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When your bet represents either the nuts, or a busted draw just pot it.

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That's not what game theory says.

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yeah as far as I was aware the correct bet is all-in

but this assumes a perfect oponent, so although I agree that an all in bet here is best, but for different reasons

tanget - I think when the stacks are deep enough, and you have the nuts but it's possible he does to, I think an all-in is incorrect. If you don't want this thread to be hijacked, that's cool, phzon, but I'd like to hear your thoughts

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I like pot based on your opponents hand strength here.

In other cases, or in the general case, all in may be best.

But I really don't see his hand being strong enough to consider calling an all in bet. I think if he is going to look you up for any amount, he will look you up for pot.

[pzhon]

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I think when the stacks are deep enough, and you have the nuts but it's possible he does to, I think an all-in is incorrect.

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Yes, if your opponent has either the nuts or a bluff-catcher, and you have the nuts or a bluff, there is an optimal bet size depending on the probability that your opponent has the nuts. If your opponent could only have a bluff-catcher, you would want to bet as much as possible, so there would be no optimum bet size.

This was news to me. Thanks.

If I calculated correctly, the optimum bet size is pot*(p^(-1/2)-1), where p is the probability that your opponent has the nuts. For p large, you should never make a large bluff, and your opponent should not call a large bet without the nuts.

I like all in. Depending on the looseness of the person, maybe a pot size raise or bigger could be correct too. I definitely dont like the idea of putting in a small raise and hopes he'll come over the top. First of all, there's 1 card to a straight on the table, unless he's very very bad at poker, he wont come over the top with an 8, because he'll most likely know if you call a check raise, you'll get an 8 beat, thus if he has an 8 he'll only call. And if a player's that loose, an all in would be the right move even more so, especially that he's passive. Since he showed weakness on the river he wont respect your move as much, in fact if he has an 8 then he'll most likely check call a raise, and if he's loose he'll call an all in often enough. If he doesn't have an 8, he wont call any money worth discussing about. You would then raise a few dollars and hope to get that out of him. An all in raise is most profitable unless you're 100% certain taht an 8 is not in his range.

[pzhon]

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Preflop:
UTG posts 1 BB. UTG checks, Villain limps, Hero limps with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Button limps, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop (6 players, 6 BB): T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB folds, 2 checks, Villain bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, 3 folds.

Turn (2 players, 10 BB): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, Villain calls 9 BB.

River (2 players, 34 BB): 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero?


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Hero quickly pushes for 257 BB, Villain takes less than 1 second to call 173 BB with 98.

Hero wins 380 BB-rake.

I believe making a proportionate bet is not just wrong, but wrong by a lot, and most SSNL players would get this wrong.

I had represented a lot of strength by calling on the flop and then making a substantial raise on the turn. The call of my turn raise suggested either a decent made hand or a draw. A set seemed unlikely, and two pair might not pay off much. A busted flush draw won't pay anything, but a 1-card straight draw just hit. So, even though the Villain checked to me, I thought that if he had anything, there was a decent chance that he had an 8. People don't like to draw to a hand and then fold when their draw hits. I thought he would probably call a push with an 8.

By the way, in the villain's position after checking and a huge overbet by a non-maniac, I'd fold an 8, but I would call with J8. (At the table, I thought it might be right to call 1/3-1/2 of the time, but in retrospect I think calling is just wrong.) With just an 8, I might check-raise over a very small bet, then fold to a push. I would just call a medium-sized bet. I probably would not have checked the river with an 8, though.

It is often right to push in situations like this where there is a big second-best hand which seems likely and with which many players will call a push but not raise a smaller bet, and it seems unlikely that worse hands will call much. I get paid off frequently. Many players would make a normal value bet without thinking, and don't realize how much money they would leave on the table. I only need to get called a small fraction of the time to make these pushes more profitable than pot-sized or smaller bets, and when the pushes are not called, they seem to induce later tilt-calls.

Another reason to push was that it looked very different from what I had done with the (2 card) royal flush earlier. Some people make really bad calls when I vary the sizes of my river bets. I could imagine someone with a bluff-catcher hand calling, convinced that he knew I wasn't making a value bet, and that I must be bluffing the scare card after his check.

[barongreenback]

It is possible to give a rational argument for why a push here might be seen as a bluff and there is also the game theory line but that isn't why I voted to push.

The reason is that all poker players are irrational, to some degree or other. In particular, people often think of hand strength as absolute rather than relative. That’s why I would never push with bluff here but still expect to get called when I do push. What happens when a hand is discussed on a poker forum and what goes on in a player’s head in the middle of a hand are not the same thing.

Against a good player whether or not to push with an 8 here is interesting. You have to judge the quality of your hand reading.

James

[Lucky]

I probably bet 3/4 of pot.

Theres really one question here: how much will he call with an 8???

a good player wont call that much with an 8, a donk will. For you to decide is where in the gray area your opponent is.

[rachelwxm]

I think a push is good if you think there is enough chance he had 8 or J8 here and he would call the huge overbet. But based on his passive action, I don't think he is likely to have J8. And I think it's a tough call for a lone 8 if he is any decent.

I fold 8 here 100% since your large over bet with 4 to a straight at least representing a straight to me. Any chance that you might have the higher straight is a free EV for you. Based on your turn action, I think it's very likely.

I think if he is bad enough to call with 8, don't you think if you lead 2/3 pot on river, he might reraise and then make a crying call there? So there is a chance you get his stack anyway if he has the 8 and there is some good chance he calls you 2/3 pot size with any other marginal hands?

If he bet the river, I think all in is a very good move.

I am still learing this game.

[mindflayer]

It is interesting how i am the only person who voted to bet
5BB or 1/2 of the pot....

Not a single person here mentions that you want the villian to call with a T or K or two pair.

In my mind, the bet is also weak enough that the villian will very likely come over the top with an 8. THEN you can put the hurts on him. If he is a passive player, i would gess he would only call a pot size bet with an 8...


just my 2c..
maybe im way off, enlighten me please.