Am I spewing?

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hadn't of folded the AQ hand face up, I'd say you are spewing.

You say he is a thinking player, hopefully he's thinking of that. And hopefully he was thinking of that when he raised you, and was light.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I would count on that. Pseudo-thinking players, as I call them, may remember the laydown, but I think it comes after Soss makes the 3rd raise, not before it. I just don't see the tighter solid types in those tournaments going through the thought process of lessening their hand requirements for a raise because they might view you as weak tight. I guess I just think it might not get loosened enough to the point where you can safely assume a fold to a push.

What is more likely, IMO, is that he still raised with a good hand, but is more likely to remember the AQ fold AFTER the push, which might limit his hand range that he's going to call with, as he has to assume Soss is pushing with something better than AQ here.

All things considered, I think it's pretty marginal. But I don't make moves like this.

[MLG]

and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[woodguy]

i'm sorry about the 2 cards adding up to 15 comment, obviously T7 is well ahead of those. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I like what nolanfan had to say (you don't post here enough btw)

If he wasn't coming over the top of you since your laydown, he probably hasn't adjusted his re-raising range for you.

Tough one.

When it works its great, when it doesn't it hurts, but I don't think there is a good way of evaluating it without being at the table.

nolan's probably right that its probably thin though.

Regards,
Woodguy

I hate the idea of bluffing preflop giving someone better than 2:1 because it's really hard to fold getting those odds preflop. Also, you're putting in 6700 to bluff at a pot of ~1500, so you need a lot of equity.

I think call preflop, push any flop is much better (especially because of your AQo hand), although folding's the obvious play.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What is more likely, IMO, is that he still raised with a good hand, but is more likely to remember the AQ fold AFTER the push, which might limit his hand range that he's going to call with, as he has to assume Soss is pushing with something better than AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's about exactly where he's at. Exactly that type of player. He probably had a decent hand to reraise, but after I push, I think that he feels that I must have a bigger hand than AQ to make this play.

I think his raising range is something like:
AK-AT, KQ, maybe some lesser non-pair hand, pairs down to 8 or 9 prob.
His calling range is probably something like:
AK, AQ, TT+?. He prob folds 99 and calls JJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

404,103,744 games 0.671 secs 602,241,049 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1325 % 28.86% 00.27% { T7s }
Hand 2: 70.8675 % 70.60% 00.27% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


So I'm 30% against that range when he calls me.

88 - 6
99 - 6
TT - 3
QQ-AA - 18
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
AT - 16
KQ - 16
Total combos 113
10% bluffing ~10 more combos
123 total

He's calling w/ 54 or so of them.

Just to be conservative and for ease of math, let's say I get called half the time.

50% I win 450+800+2400 = 3650
+1825 ev
50% of the time I get called and:
70% of that time I lose an additional 6700 = .5*.7*-6700 = -2345 ev
30% of the 50% I win 450+800+7500 = 8750 * .3 * .5 = 1312 +ev

1312+1825-2345 = +ev ~800 chips or 10% of my stack.

If I was more confident of these ranges (they could be much looser, but probably not much tigher) than I like my play. Given that I might have misread his ability to lay down KQ or AJ or 88, this could be EV nuetral or even slightly negative. Given my chip position and control over the table, I think that it's a bit of a spew.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, now that's funny.

I probably would have called CHTP with AQo. I don't think it's that loose a call agaisnt the range of hands these players push with. Even after the rebuys, these "thinking" players will take pocket 4's to the river.

However, I let go of the T7s hand. The push is totally read dependent on CHTP's ability to laydown a hand...not the fact that you were able to lay down AQ. (Did he turn over what he was pushing with after you exposed?)

And as others have stated, he does have good odds to call with a wide range of hands, especially before the second break.

Decision: Spewing? - YES

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly certain that he doesn't think about hand ranges, price, etc...if he doesn't have a 'good hand', he'll probably let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]


It also means that he probably wouldnt reraise you without a 'good hand'. Anything he wasn't ready to play for all his chips he probably just calls with preflop. Probably.

Of course you could push, get called, suckout, and proceed to get more offers for action than Eva Longoria. Your call.

Everett

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

Regards,
Woodguy

[DeuceKicker]

I'm not very good, but I'm sure I'm better than most of the schmoes you're playing against. You'd probably (accurately) describe me as a thinking player who's still no match for you.

That having been said, after you folded AQ face up, I'd be telling myself, "the next time he comes over the top of me, he probably won't have much." I probably wouldn't have the balls to follow through and call a push without a good hand, but I'd be suspicious. Maybe this guy has the balls.