Digging out of this hole

I think calling is the best option. Villian doesnt feel like the type that would call preflop with too many better aces. Would push back prob. with AK, AQ, maybe AJ. Eliminating that from his range, the most likely are twenty hands KJ, KQ, AT, or some type of flush draw like 98h. I would call, and if board bricks, Push.

[SossMan]

I don't know how to identify a brick. There are too many combo draws (esp w/ the Ah)

Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[Roman]

No read on villian? I fold this.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ] The problem with this calculation is that it assumes all hands that you put the villian on are equally likely (given the cards that are left in the deck and the cards that are needed to make the hands you put the villian on).

[Sam T.]

Tough position. I started to make the argument that the villain would not make this play without a strong hand, but changed my mind. Hero's range is pretty wide here (I'll go with AA-77, KQs-T9s, AK-AJ), so thanks to his position the villain can call with similar range.

When the Hero c-bets, villain still doesn't know much except that the Hero has either an ace or a pulse - nobody's eyes pop out when the PF raiser bets at an ace-high flop.

For his part, the villain probably caught at least a piece of the flop. Decent pair, some sort of draw, or both. So now what? Well, the c-bet is hardly proof of an ace, and you've got the big stack, so why not use it? If the Hero comes over the top of your raise, you fold and have t50k - 83 BBs, which even a donk like me can work with. So raise and put Hero to the test.

Back to Hero. Villain is making this play with a wide range of hands, but he is probably either ahead or has a draw. In a normal tournament I can see the argument for folding, but in a first-or-bust situation, it's much tougher. You need a big stack.

I'm pushing.

[locutus2002]

[ QUOTE ]
given your description of villain, i probably move in. i think he has a million different pair+gutshot hands here or draws or what not, and he's going to play them fast. if it were regular MTT payout, i'd fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero is about even in hand. I'd expect villain to turn up a pair w/ a gutshot, and and backdooor and be 50% in the hand.

[durron597]

I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?

I guess the plan is to ch-raise to 10k and fold to a push?

[Double Eagle]

This seems like a pretty easy fold as hero is either a little ahead or drawing dead....