On the fly thinking -- out counting exercise

6.5/6.5
7/7
6.5/6.5
7/7
15/14 (Qh)
4/4.5 (bdfd)
13/13.25 (wheel)
3/2.75 (bdfd only .25)
7.5/7.5
4/3.75 (-.5 Jh +.25 bdsd)
5/4 (wtf was i thinking?)
1.5/1.5
0?/0
2/2
7/7
5/5
3.5/3.5
4/4
-3/-3
3/3.25 (1.25bdfd)

[Greg J]

3.5 for the gutshot (discounted). You can give nut BDFDs 2 full outs. I counted another .25 for the chance of running 6, 7 or 7, 6 (discounted).

Great post.... here are my 'counterarguments':
Each one will be your answer first, then mine

1) Y:7 M:6.5
Two tens guaranteed, 2 Aces (discounted), 1.5 bdfd, 1 bdsd
did you give 1.5 for bdsd or 2.5 for aces?
2) Y:9 M:7
Oops. totally forgot overcards.... looking again here i think we are closer to 9.5
3) Y:7 M:7 hooray!
4) Y:6.5 M:7
no idea why its low? both straight draws are to the nuts, we cant discount more than 1 for the flush right?
5) Y:11.25 M:14
9 hearts, 3 kings are all guaranteed so no idea how you get under 12. i think you have to give at least another 2.5 outs for overcards too, that answer should be 14.5 or possibly even 15?
6) Y:6.5 M:4.5
2 threes are guaranteed, 2 for the queen, .5 for the bdfd?
7) Y:12 M:13.25
i give 4 for overcards here, probably the difference. then .25 for sucker wheel and 9 obvious fd.
8) Y:3.5 M:2.75
2 Js, .5 bdsd, .25 bdfd? fairly debatable could easily be anywhere between these 2 answers imo
9) Y:8.5 M:7.5
Straight isnt to the nuts, J gives QK the nuts, or any Q a redraw. I think set outs are almost negligent here, the boat redraw isnt more than .25 for sure
10) Y:4.5 M:3.75
2 Ts, 1.5J, .25 bdsd?
11) Y:5.75 M:4
3.5 sd 1.5 bdfd, yeah should be about 5 i guess i was right the first time
12) Y:1.5 M:1.5 Finally....
13) Y:1.5 M:0
1.5? is this for the weak bdfd and the bdsd? i really dont think you can make it anywhere near 1.5....
14) Y:2 M:2 pretty obvious
15) Y:6.5 M:7
you discount 1.5? i discount 1.... fairly debatable? maybe 6.75?
16) Y:6.75 M:5
maybe 6 actually? 2.5 aces 2 fives 1.5 bdnfd
17) Y:3 M:3.5
i only discount .5 for the flush
18) Y:4 M:4 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
19) Y:2.5 M:-3 depends on how you read it.
20) Y:4 M:3.25
probably 3.5? where does the extra .5 come from? bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post.... here are my 'counterarguments':
Each one will be your answer first, then mine[/quote[
Thanks
[ QUOTE ]

1) Y:7 M:6.5
Two tens guaranteed, 2 Aces (discounted), 1.5 bdfd, 1 bdsd
did you give 1.5 for bdsd or 2.5 for aces?


[/ QUOTE ]
A BD draw to the nuts is worth 2 outs.

[ QUOTE ]

2) Y:9 M:7
Oops. totally forgot overcards.... looking again here i think we are closer to 9.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Overcard outs are likely to make someone else a straight.

[ QUOTE ]

3) Y:7 M:7 hooray!

[/ QUOTE ]
We both rock!

[ QUOTE ]

4) Y:6.5 M:7
no idea why its low? both straight draws are to the nuts, we cant discount more than 1 for the flush right?


[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, you might be right on this one.

[ QUOTE ]

5) Y:11.25 M:14
9 hearts, 3 kings are all guaranteed so no idea how you get under 12. i think you have to give at least another 2.5 outs for overcards too, that answer should be 14.5 or possibly even 15?

[/ QUOTE ]
A Queen can make someone a straight.

[ QUOTE ]

6) Y:6.5 M:4.5
2 threes are guaranteed, 2 for the queen, .5 for the bdfd?


[/ QUOTE ]
two 3s, 3 Qs, and 1.5 for the third nut bdfd.

[ QUOTE ]

7) Y:12 M:13.25
i give 4 for overcards here, probably the difference. then .25 for sucker wheel and 9 obvious fd.


[/ QUOTE ]
I only count 3 for overcards. I didnt consider the sucker straight draw. You have a point there. 12.25 then?

[ QUOTE ]

8) Y:3.5 M:2.75
2 Js, .5 bdsd, .25 bdfd? fairly debatable could easily be anywhere between these 2 answers imo


[/ QUOTE ]
.75 for both BD draws.

[ QUOTE ]

9) Y:8.5 M:7.5
Straight isnt to the nuts, J gives QK the nuts, or any Q a redraw. I think set outs are almost negligent here, the boat redraw isnt more than .25 for sure

[/ QUOTE ]
I think 8 is right here. I think you are right about the J outs.

[ QUOTE ]

10) Y:4.5 M:3.75
2 Ts, 1.5J, .25 bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]
You can count the Js more than that I think.

[ QUOTE ]

11) Y:5.75 M:4
3.5 sd 1.5 bdfd, yeah should be about 5 i guess i was right the first time


[/ QUOTE ]
Outside chance at running 6,7

[ QUOTE ]

12) Y:1.5 M:1.5 Finally....

[/ QUOTE ]
YEAH!

[ QUOTE ]

13) Y:1.5 M:0
1.5? is this for the weak bdfd and the bdsd? i really dont think you can make it anywhere near 1.5....
14) Y:2 M:2 pretty obvious
15) Y:6.5 M:7
you discount 1.5? i discount 1.... fairly debatable? maybe 6.75?
16) Y:6.75 M:5
maybe 6 actually? 2.5 aces 2 fives 1.5 bdnfd
17) Y:3 M:3.5
i only discount .5 for the flush
18) Y:4 M:4 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
19) Y:2.5 M:-3 depends on how you read it.
20) Y:4 M:3.25
probably 3.5? where does the extra .5 come from? bdsd?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll try to address this later. This is time consuming and my wife needs the computer, sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll try to address this later. This is time consuming and my wife needs the computer, sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ok thanks, its stickied so whenever

[bravos1]

Greg.. Awesome post. I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this

1. 6.5/6.5
2. 10/9.5
3. 5.5/6
4. 5.5/6.5
5. 12/11.5
6. 4.5/5 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
7. 12.5/12.5
8. 4/4
9. 7.5/8
10. 2.5/4.5 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] missed a few the first time around LOL
11. 3.5/4 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
12. 1.5/1.5
13. 3/3 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
14. 2/2
15. 6.5/6.5
16. 5/5 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
17. 1.5/3 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] this one gave me your headache!
18. 5/5
19. 5.5/5.5
20. 5/4.5

The ones I marked with [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I would like to have a bit of a discussion against. I'm a bit pressed for time, as this does take some time (in the best way), maybe you could just spell out how you came to yours a bit more and I can come back.

One thing I noticed it that you give at minimum 1/2 an out more on nut flush draws. I typically only give 1.5 even if it's the nuts. The odds of pulling the flush are the same and it is not likely enough to go flush over flush enough to give 1/2 - 1 full out more IMO.

Thanks again.. this is awesome!

1. 6.5
10
6
3.4
5. 13
2
14
3
8
10. 6
7
1.75
2
2
15. 8
6.5
3.5
4
5.5
2

(1) 6.5/6.5
10/10
6/6
3.4/3.4
(5) 13/13
2/6.5
14/14
3/3
8/8
(10) 6/6.75
7/3.75
1.75/3.75
2/1.5
2/2
(15) 8/8
6.5/6.5
3.5/3.5
4/4
5.5/2 if behind
2/2

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]

3.4/3.4


[/ QUOTE ]

3.4 outs? 4 tenths??

yeah, that's about right