On the fly thinking -- out counting exercise

[Greg J]

When we post responses to hands on whether someone should call or fold we make our responses based on the perceived number of outs Hero has. This is good, and what we should be doing. However, we do so with the luxury of time. In the heat of the moment, when you have 4 or more tables going at once we don’t often have the time to sit back and thoroughly count outs. We have to utilize “on the fly” thinking. We don’t only have to make good decisions, but we to make them fast.

Now, one of the best ways to improve on the fly thinking is to review hands, read books, and study the game. There is a lot of good advice on the board, but I don’t see much discussion that openly invokes the importance on the fly thinking. It doesn’t take it into consideration that we are making rushed decisions.

Because we have to make so many rushed decisions, we are going to make some errors. That is just the way it is. What we have to work in is minimizing those mistakes.

So this post is an exercise in on the fly thinking. Don't look yet, but below I have a series of hypothetical flop situations. Here is what I want you to do: Get a piece of paper and mark down how many outs you think you have to improve. Take about 5 second for each decision and then write down a number. Don’t cheat! Don’t think about position, and don’t consider specific action. (I know that action will tend to limit the number of outs you think you have, but that would just complicate the exercise.) I want you to have only one salient assumption: you are behind to top pair or better. Remember to discount outs, as not all outs are always clean. (Overcards are typically counted as half outs, backdoor draws are valued more if they are draws to the nuts, etc.) Be sure to include half outs (some answers might end on .5, or even .25). Ready?

Okay, scroll down and begin.














































You have: <font color="white">……… ………..……</font>Board:

1) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

2) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

3) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

4) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

5) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

6) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

7) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

8) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

9) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

10) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]<font color="white">………………………</font>T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

11) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

13) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

14) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

15) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

16) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

18) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

19) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

20) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="white">………………………</font>A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Okay, now you have done your on the fly calculations. Now beside each answer, I want you to write the answer again, except this time I want you to take as much time as you need for each answer. Think it over, study the board if you have to. Then reply to this and post both answers. For example your answer might look like:

1) 8/7
2) 12/10.5
3) 11/11
4) …etc.
all the way to the last question.

If we have any disagreements, I want us to discuss them. (The above answers are not mine per say, just hypothetical and not necessarily correct, so don’t argue with those.)

EDIT: I screwed up in question 19. You already have 2 pair there, so you proabably have good reason to think you are ahead (but if you ARE behind, drawing thin obviously).

[1337 skills]

1) 6/6.5
2) 9/10
3) 3/4
4) 9/7.5
5) 10/11.75
6) 6.5/6
7) 14/13
8) 2.5/3.5
9) 8/8
10) 4/4
11) 5.5/5.5
12) 1.5/1.75
13) 1.25/1.25
14) 2/2
15) 8/8
16) 6.5/6.5
17) 6/3.5
18) 4/4
19) 5.25/5
20) 3.25/3.5

[milesdyson]

my first go around
edit: i know i'm supposed to go and take some time, but too much goes through my head to actually take time to do this. like, "what if the guy has this and this guy has this and my cat is scratching me and there's a flush draw out and what about the times i get outdrawn on, etc." so consider my answers to be on both sides of the /.

1. 5
2. 8
3. 5
4. 6
5. 14
6. 4.5
7. 12
8. 3.5
9. 8
10. 2.5
11. 4
12. 1.5
13. 1.5
14. 2
15. 7
16. 6
17. 3
18. 4
19. 5
20. 3.5

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
1) 6/6.5
2) 9/10
3) 3/4
4) 9/7.5
5) 10/11.75
6) 6.5/6
7) 14/13
8) 2.5/3.5
9) 8/8
10) 4/4
11) 5.5/5.5
12) 1.5/1.75
13) 1.25/1.25
14) 2/2
15) 8/8
16) 6.5/6.5
17) 6/3.5
18) 4/4
19) 5.25/5
20) 3.25/3.5

[/ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify, this format is excactly what I was looking for.

[VoraciousReader]

1)6.5/7
2)10/9
3)7/7
4)4/6
5)12/12
6)6.5/6
7)12/12
8)5/6.5
9)7/7
10)5.5/4.5
11)5.5/4.5
12)2/1.5
13)3/2.5
14)2/2
15)8/7
16)3.5/7
17)4/3.5
18)4/4
19)4.5/5.5
20)3.5/3.5

This was very interesting. I learned that:

1) I need to look harder for double-gutters and bdsds.
2) I need to remember to discount if my outs are putting 3 to a flush on board.
3) I need to remember to discount if there's an excellent chance my out is to a split pot.
4) That sometimes I have a hard time deciding how much to assign a bdsd. (Actually I already knew that, but it reminded me to review out counting in SSHE.)

[TennesseeKid]

For the ones that are incorrect, I would seriously appreciate someone to explain why the outs ARE counted as such.Thanks:

1) 4.5/7
2) 10/10
3) 3/2.5
4) 3/4
5) 15/18
6) 6.5/6.5
7) 15/15.5
8) 1.5/1
9) 10/8.5
10)5/3.5
11)5.5/4.5
12)2/1
13)8/8
14)2/2
15)8/8
16)6.5/6.5
17)4/3.5
18)4/4
19)5.5/5.5
20)3.5/3.5

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
5) 15/18

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount your overcards much more than this

[PokerSparky]

1. 4/4.5
2. 11/9.5
3. 6/5.5
4. 3.5/7
5. 12/13
6. 4/4
7. 12/12
8. 3.5/3.5
9. 5/6.5
10. 3/3
11. 4/4.5
12. 1.5/1.5
13. 1/1
14. 2/2
15. 6.5/6
16. 4/5
17. 3.5/3.5
18. 4/4
19. 5/5
20. 3.5/3.5

[numeri]

1. 6.5/6
2. 10/10
3. 5/6
4. 8/8
5. 16/15.5
6. 6/5
7. 13/13
8. 4/5
9. 9/7
10. 4.5/4
11. 5.5/5.5
12. 2/2
13. 3/2
14. 2/2
15. 6/6
16. 6.5/6.5
17. 4/4
18. 4/4
19. 5.5/5
20. 3.5/3.5

[WordWhiz]

1. 7/5
2. 11/10
3. 5/4.75
4. 7/7
5. 15/14.5
6. 6/5
7. 14/13.5
8. 5/5
9. 8/7.5
10. 5/3.5
11. 5/5
12. 1.5/1.75
13. 2/2
14. 2/2
15. 8/8
16. 6.5/6
17. 3.5/3.5
18. 4/4
19. 2.5/2
20. 3.5/3.5

The only one I seem to disagree with all the previous poster on is number 19. Look closely. We have two pair, but the problem explicitly says that we're behind. Opponent does not have AQ, KK, etc. He can only have QQ, JJ, 44, QJ, or Q4 (unlikely). Given that range, we're drawing very thin.