Pushing too hard or just right?

Kyle · #1 11-02-2005, 08:53 PM

The original raiser in this hand is a total lag 40/20/1.5. His late postion raising standards are very thin however I havent seen too much of his play from earlier positions. The cold caller is a loose passive donkey.

Did I push too hard or put in the right amount of action?

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+2 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.67 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (11.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23.33 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP3 folds, Hero raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.33 BB.

Joshssj4 · #2 11-02-2005, 08:57 PM

I'd cap the river.

partygirluk · #3 11-02-2005, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

SirFelixCat · #4 11-02-2005, 09:47 PM

I like your line. IMO, as an earlier poster said, capping the river is -EV. I like the raise/call RR on the river. Would AQ be that far of a reach, or KK or AA here? I'm thinking QQ is more likely, but I've seen KK and AA played the same here.

ihardlyknowher · #5 11-03-2005, 03:44 AM

I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

MCS · #6 11-03-2005, 04:06 AM

I think you played it fine.

elindauer · #7 11-03-2005, 01:22 PM

You might consider ending the post with "hero raises..." as the knowledge that your opponent 3-bets may influence the answers.

The river raise is the only place I have any doubt. Yeah, he raises 20% of his hands, but is he really capping KT? Is he really going to give all this action with 1 pair? These seem pretty doubtful, so you have to believe he has either 99, which we don't know he'll cap, and QQ, which he surely will. Since you are offering 2:1 on the river raise, I think a call is in order.

-Eric

elindauer · #8 11-03-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call the river. He capped the turn and came out firing on the river. KT and QQ are more likely than 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

We beat KT. If you put KT in his hand range, you should raise, as there would then bet 16 KT's and 3 99's we beat, vs 3 QQ's we don't, making us better than 6:1 favorites.

good luck.
eric

MNpoker · #9 11-03-2005, 01:34 PM

What could MP3 have called 4 bets on the turn and folded the river with? Not really relevant but I am curious can we put him on a hand that makes sense at all betting points?

I think we are missing a bunch on hands UTG could have assuming he is a 42% players. That's a HIGH number and 20% PFR! And he STILL has a PFAF of 1.5!
Certified maniac!!

He can certainly have:
AA
KK
KT
QQ
99
QJ
AQ
AJ
J9
T8suited
33

All you lose to is 33 and QQ. (If this were a 4 raise game my decision may be altered)

I cap the river.

DcifrThs · #10 11-03-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd cap the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

opponenet is 40/20/1.5

he doesn't think like you.

Barron