Bet into again, a pretty common situation

[Perseus]

This has been happening quite a bit lately, and I'm starting to question the standard line I take in this spot.

So, I figured I'd throw it out to you guys, oh wise 2+2ers...

Party 2/4

I am in MP3 with AsJs. Guy before me limps, and he is unknown. I raise. Button is a 24/10/.5 and cold calls. SB is a 23/14/1.5 and cold calls. Folded to MP2 who calls.

Flop comes 6c6s7c

MP2 bets into me.

What's my plan and why?

Usually I raise here unless the bettor is super tight, or super aggro, to fold the button, and hopefully to get a free card on the turn. He could have clubs and you could have him beat, but you are likely drawing live to 6 outs.

[aargh57]

OK, I'll take a shot even though I'm an unwise 2+2er. I think you raise here. I'm thinking that MP2 probably holds a 7 or is on a semibluff with clubs. (How loose is MP2 btw?) I'm thinking that at this point I can count my overcards as about 4 outs plus my backdoor flush. In addition, you may have the best hand against him. If you raise, I highly doubt button and SB will stay in unless SB had the 6. I don't see any hands with a 6 or 7 that button could have and unless he's on a flush draw he's folding.

[W. Deranged]

Things that are important:

1. The board is paired. This means there are fewer cards he could have which hit this board.

2. The board has low cards. Which means that he likely thinks you have very little, and also means he will be more confident in his small/medium pair.

3. The board is chock-full-'o'-draws. This means your opponent may well be betting a draw.

4. Your opponent does NOT likely have a very strong hand. If he flopped trips or a boat, he likely would have slowplayed. You almost certainly have 7.5 clean outs whenever you're behind, and maybe even are ahead some of the time.

So I approach this hand from the perspective that: I'm ahead of the donk-bettor some of the time, but probably not that far ahead, and I'm behind some of the time, but have 25-30% equity in those cases (against the pre-flop bettor).

Now, the problem is that there are players behind you. They may have weak draws, hands like KQ that might hit and limit your outs, or even possibly hands like AK or AQ that kill some of your outs. They often will have missed the flop too with big cards, but pretty much anything they have is something that I would prefer to hvae fold (particularly hands like KQ and 33).

So my conclusion: Raise the flop.

If it gets heads-up as desired, and villain doesn't three-bet the flop and checks the turn, I'm usually betting the turn and folding to a raise. My idea is that very often villain has a draw on the turn and my hand has a ton of showdown value against any draw; I'd prefer to put in a bet on the turn and take a free showdown than check, risk giving a free card, and have to maybe crying-call the river. Since I don't have outs against many hands that would check-raise the turn, I'm happy to fold to a raise. (The exception is if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn; in that case, I'll bet and call a raise. I still like betting because now I have a ton of equity, and I'm still not that scared of a 6).

[ QUOTE ]
Things that are important:

1. The board is paired. This means there are fewer cards he could have which hit this board.

2. The board has low cards. Which means that he likely thinks you have very little, and also means he will be more confident in his small/medium pair.

3. The board is chock-full-'o'-draws. This means your opponent may well be betting a draw.

4. Your opponent does NOT likely have a very strong hand. If he flopped trips or a boat, he likely would have slowplayed. You almost certainly have 7.5 clean outs whenever you're behind, and maybe even are ahead some of the time.

So I approach this hand from the perspective that: I'm ahead of the donk-bettor some of the time, but probably not that far ahead, and I'm behind some of the time, but have 25-30% equity in those cases (against the pre-flop bettor).

Now, the problem is that there are players behind you. They may have weak draws, hands like KQ that might hit and limit your outs, or even possibly hands like AK or AQ that kill some of your outs. They often will have missed the flop too with big cards, but pretty much anything they have is something that I would prefer to hvae fold (particularly hands like KQ and 33).

So my conclusion: Raise the flop.

If it gets heads-up as desired, and villain doesn't three-bet the flop and checks the turn, I'm usually betting the turn and folding to a raise. My idea is that very often villain has a draw on the turn and my hand has a ton of showdown value against any draw; I'd prefer to put in a bet on the turn and take a free showdown than check, risk giving a free card, and have to maybe crying-call the river. Since I don't have outs against many hands that would check-raise the turn, I'm happy to fold to a raise. (The exception is if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn; in that case, I'll bet and call a raise. I still like betting because now I have a ton of equity, and I'm still not that scared of a 6).

[/ QUOTE ]

Damnit you make everyone else look bad.

[sfer]

This hand reminds The Daver of Big Endian's 88 hand last week.

[Perseus]

Wow I f'd up big time. It's supposed to be a flop of 6s6c7h, so there is no club draw. Sorry guys....

But anyways...

So on the flop MP2 bets. I raise. Button cold calls. SB folds. MP2 calls.

Turn comes 5s.

Mp2 donkbets into me.

Now what?

[aargh57]

[ QUOTE ]
Things that are important:

1. The board is paired. This means there are fewer cards he could have which hit this board.

2. The board has low cards. Which means that he likely thinks you have very little, and also means he will be more confident in his small/medium pair.

3. The board is chock-full-'o'-draws. This means your opponent may well be betting a draw.

4. Your opponent does NOT likely have a very strong hand. If he flopped trips or a boat, he likely would have slowplayed. You almost certainly have 7.5 clean outs whenever you're behind, and maybe even are ahead some of the time.

So I approach this hand from the perspective that: I'm ahead of the donk-bettor some of the time, but probably not that far ahead, and I'm behind some of the time, but have 25-30% equity in those cases (against the pre-flop bettor).

Now, the problem is that there are players behind you. They may have weak draws, hands like KQ that might hit and limit your outs, or even possibly hands like AK or AQ that kill some of your outs. They often will have missed the flop too with big cards, but pretty much anything they have is something that I would prefer to hvae fold (particularly hands like KQ and 33).

So my conclusion: Raise the flop.

If it gets heads-up as desired, and villain doesn't three-bet the flop and checks the turn, I'm usually betting the turn and folding to a raise. My idea is that very often villain has a draw on the turn and my hand has a ton of showdown value against any draw; I'd prefer to put in a bet on the turn and take a free showdown than check, risk giving a free card, and have to maybe crying-call the river. Since I don't have outs against many hands that would check-raise the turn, I'm happy to fold to a raise. (The exception is if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn; in that case, I'll bet and call a raise. I still like betting because now I have a ton of equity, and I'm still not that scared of a 6).

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing that I would disagree with is that you say you have 7.5 outs when your behind. You're assuming that villain will never bet out with a 6 here. I think that this assumption is pretty safe but not 100%. Otherwise very good assesment. (It's a good assessment even with the assumption).

[Perseus]

Beautiful flop analysis Deranged, per usual.

[ QUOTE ]
Wow I f'd up big time. It's supposed to be a flop of 6s6c7h, so there is no club draw. Sorry guys....

But anyways...

So on the flop MP2 bets. I raise. Button cold calls. SB folds. MP2 calls.

Turn comes 5s.

Mp2 donkbets into me.

Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]


Disregard my previous post, didn't see it gave us a flush draw. Call.