Some winrates of mine over 10-30k samples

[Perseus]

The last few days I have seen many posts where people say they are running 3bb/100 over 20k hands and they = god, or that the last 10k hands they've been losing and "HELP ME I SUCK AT POKER".

I wanted to post my winrates over various months to show people that one can run .5bb/100 over 20k hands or 2.5bb/100 over 10k hands. Not only can they do it, but they will do it.

Now I hope people don't see this as a brag post because it's not, in fact my long term winrate is much lower than a lot of great posters on this site. If people want me to delete this thread I will.

These are samples taken from my limit poker sessions only, 2/4-3/6. For the majority of these sessions I was 6-12 tabling, so I would say these are based over 8 table avg's.

Recently I've limited myself to 4 tables at a time because I felt I wasn't getting any better as a player 8+ tabling, so I'm (maybe?) sacraficing some money to become a better player.

Side note: While typing this thread my last 23k hand winrate rose from .99 to 1.10.

Oct: 1.10bb/100 over last 23k hands
Oct: 0.05bb/100 over first 11k hands
Sept 10-: 1.31/100 over 30k hand
Aug 30- Sept 10 2.52/100 over 20.8k
Aug 15-20: 1.17/100 over 20k hands
Aug 1-15: 2.62/100 over 14k hands
May: .084/100 over 21k
Apr: .88/100 over 22k

[W. Deranged]

Perseus,

I appreciate the candor. I think you're message here is a good one. Nice post.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Good post. Sadly i think it will be in vain. I think it is too hard for most people (myself included) to get their head around how much variance there is in short term poker results. Running 4BB/100 for 10k hands feels so good and -1BB/100 feels so bad it is hard for it to not change your perception of your own skill.

Very cool post though.

[xwillience]

im just glad that poker doesnt cost me money.

[chief444]

I've run negative over 15k+. I've had DAYS (although luckily few and far between) where I've lost just under 200 BB. And of course there have been stretches of 10k+ where I've run well over 5BB/100. I thought I had an idea of what long term was. But until I started playing full time I really didn't.

I'll mention also that my win rate in the morning hours is less than half of what it is in the evenings/weekends. So basically yeah, it's almost pointless to compare. Anyone who wins long term is doing OK.

[SmileyEH]

I think variance is underestimated by most players but overestimated by the establishment in SS. Those of us that have played 100's of thousands of hands have seen all sorts of crazy [censored]. But for most players with smaller samples they're week to week results won't be so extreme. Ie; 10k of -1BB/100 and 10k of 5BB/100 doesn't happen *THAT* often. Whatever though, variance blows.

-SmileyEH

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever though, variance blows.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes. Sometimes I heart variance.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever though, variance blows.


[/ QUOTE ]

There would be no poker without variance.








At least that's what I tell myself right now, when i'm in my first 200 bb downswing

[pokerstudAA]

Variance happens. Just work on improving your own game.