Flop overbet

[pzhon]

Villain makes a lot of raises to 3 BB.

On one earlier hand, there was a call and I reraised to 15 BB from the SB, and the Villain folded.

On another earlier hand, I reraised to 11 BB from the SB, Villain pushed for 40 BB with TT and doubled up against my AA.

Online NL, 6-handed. <font color="white"> 1131776263 </font>

Hero is the button, 75 BB.
Villain is MP, 74 BB.
There were no very short stacks at the table, though the SB had only 40 BB.

Preflop:
Fold, Villain raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2 folds.

Flop (2 players, 7.5 BB): 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 32 BB. Hero...?

Well, I liked the flop, but what did that bet of 4 times the pot mean? I can't think of a hand with which I would do that.

[pzhon]

There were many votes, but there hasn't been any discussion yet.

What is the range of hands you put the Villain on after the overbet? How much equity do you have against this range? Which of these hands would the villain fold to a raise, getting about 2.8:1?

[Rockatansky]

If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

I'd fold to the flop bet because, given the texture of the board, there are so few hands that you are dominating. Another way to say it is this: if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake; if calling is a mistake, then it's going to be a huge mistake because you will be drawing to two outs or drawing dead.

Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

[SmackinYaUp]

I agree totally with the above. Welcome regular overbets from donks like this because it makes your life easy.

I can only fathom 88 here. Most pocket pairs other than 99 have you all f*cked up here. It could be the nuts or a scared overpair, but either way its a fold. If its a bluff, thats cool too.

Or it could be something like the time I raised preflop with 79s and meant to continuation bet for $7 but ended up betting $74.

[pzhon]

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Or it could be something like the time I raised preflop with 79s and meant to continuation bet for $7 but ended up betting $74.

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That's a distinct possibility. I should mention the stakes, then. This was NL GBP 100, so the bet was 32 pounds. It could be that he meant to bet 3 pounds, the same size as his preflop raise, but his fin hit both the 3 and the 2.

[pzhon]

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If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

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You sound like an announcer for Live-At-The-Bike. Those are reasons not to reraise him.

Yes, TT is slightly ahead of his range. However, if I reraise, he will tend to fold the hands worse than TT, and call or push with better hands. (He pushed all-in with TT before.) If he pushes, I might or might not be pot-committed against him (because he is a maniac), but I'm not ahead of his range anymore and I will really regret raising. If he pushes, I no longer have a positional advantage.

Calling is a way to use my positional advantage and the fact that I am ahead of his raising range, but probably not ahead of his pushing range.

One problem with calling is that it lets the blinds enter with hands I'd rather knock out, but the flip side is that I'd hate to reraise and then get a call or reraise from the blinds.

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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.

While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.

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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)

Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.

Third, why do you think this is a large FToP mistake? Maybe it is precisely what is needed to bluff me off a better hand. Maybe it is an awesome value bet. Maybe he has a big draw and this bet gives him an informational advantage if I call down but never bet myself, so even if I win 52% hot-and-cold, I'll lose a lot of money in this pot.

Fourth, this was the first time I had seen him make an overbet like this. If he had done it before, I would have mentioned it along with the description of the earlier raised pots I had played against him.

[SmackinYaUp]

Ok, here is my ridiculously long-winded reply. I apologize for the rambling..I tend to do that during midterms for some strange reason [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has T9, folding is a huge mistake. If he has 99, folding is a huge mistake. Only if I am up against a big draw such as a pair plus an OESD (87 or 88) or an OESD plus an overcard (A8) would our hands be about even, which would make folding a relatively small mistake.

While I'm toast against a set, straight, or overpair, I'm only a 2.5:1 underdog against two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with your strong disagreement. Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best. If you could see his cards and know that you’re ahead, sure it’s a huge mistake to fold the better hand. But you can’t see his cards, and you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best. Get involved in a thousand similar situations like this where you have a marginal hand vs a huge overbet on a straight board and you’ll see that folding isn’t a huge mistake. How many times out of this thousand is it a hand you’re ahead of? Not enough to make folding a huge mistake in my opinion.

Besides, what are you going to do? Cold calling would be bad because it’s now a huge pot and what do you do when an A, K, Q, J, 8, or 4 falls? Raising is bad because he gets to fold his complete bluffs and destack you with his real hands.

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Overbetting the pot to this degree is such a horrific FToP error that you will inevitably get Villain's money if he keeps doing this.

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First, I won't inevitably get his chips. Someone will get his chips, but not necessarily me. There are 4 other people at the table. My expected share of any chips I pass up here is quite small. (I had to quit shortly after this hand, too.)

Second, even if I think I'll get opportunities later, I should still make good use of my opportunities now.

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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off. Even so, I think it’s a bad bet. On top of that, its not set in stone that anyone has their name on his chips. You said it’s the first time he’s overbet like this, so we don’t know for sure that he’s a total jackass bent on handing out money to the table. So, what’s with all the rush?

I think there are much better times than in this spot. Calling this bet does not guarantee your winning of his chips. I know you know that, but still, I had to mention it. It’s not like you have aces. Even if he doesn’t have a straight or a draw + overcard, the tens you have are not worth much in my opinion.

[Rockatansky]

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If Villain is a loose raiser, then you should have re-raised him PF since you quite likely have the best hand and have position on him.

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You sound like an announcer for Live-At-The-Bike. Those are reasons not to reraise him.

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Maybe I misunderstood your initial post. I thought you meant that he raises something like 25% of the time, and every time he does so, he raises to 3xBB. If this is what you meant, then I think you're giving up tremendous value by not re-popping him PF with a hand as strong as 10-10. Maybe this guy is so good that he pushes AA-JJ and folds everything else here, but I kind of doubt it.

If, on the other hand, you meant that he raises a normal percentage of the time, and sometimes, but not always, he only raises to 3xBB, then I definitely agree with just calling with 10-10 here.

As for the rest of the hand, of course you're significantly ahead of some of the cards he could be holding, but I believe that you're either barely ahead or, more likely, behind the range of hands that most opponents make this kind of bet with.

Oh, and if you can't take constructive criticism of the way you played this hand, then don't post.

[pzhon]

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if folding is a mistake, then it's probably only a small mistake;

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I strongly disagree. If he has AK, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3:1 favorite in a huge pot. If he has A7, folding is a huge mistake. I'd be a 3.5:1 favorite in a huge pot.

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I disagree with your strong disagreement.

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Are my numbers wrong? They certainly make it look like folding could be a large mistake.

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Folding the better hand in this place is a small mistake. Sure, if you’re up against AK or A7 you’re a 4-1 favorite, but against most everything else that pushes this hard you’re a huge dog at worst and a slight coinflip dog at best.

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You have repeated that there are hands against which I am a small dog. I don't see any. Please give actual hands as examples of this.

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you don’t have a good idea of what he has + you have a huge pot to play with a marginal hand at best.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand. The question is how my hand compares with his range of hands, and how much each of us can get paid off.

A major part of the problem is to figure out the range of hands with which he might make this overbet. What hands do you think he has?


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It’s a mistake to overbet unless he has some sort of maniacal image and thinks he is going to get paid off.

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No, it's not necessarily a mistake. It might be a great bluff, as it would risk 32 BB to pick up 7.5 BB, but apparently many people would fold more than 80% of the time, and he might have some equity if called. It might be a great value bet if this gets the most money in on average with a monster. (See Ed Miller's article in this month's 2+2 magazine.)

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I think there are much better times than in this spot.


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Yes, calling all-in with AA a couple of orbits before was better. That is not a good argument against getting involved here.

[SmackinYaUp]

Ok, I am getting tired of editing the quotes in this tiny box so I'm just going to try and reply to your points in order here. Is there anyways to change the size of the reply window? Its ridiculously small.

1. I think you just need to reread my whole paragraph here. Your numbers being correct has nothing to do with my point and I think you know that. Yes you are a 4-1 favorite over AK. You are also a 96% dog against 89o, 95% dog to 34 &amp; 48o, a 71% dog to 56 &amp; 67o, and an 88% dog to JJ, QQ, KK, AA, 77, 66, &amp; 55.
Let me try to rephrase my point anyways.

You are a favorite over AK. You don't know you are up against AK. The 75% advantage you have over AK doesn't make up for the % of time that I believe you are behind in this hand. In the long term, in situations similar to this, you are behind a high enough % of the time that folding incorrectly in this case is not a big mistake. Added to the % of time you are behind is the % of the time he will suck out when he does have a drawing hand like AK or A8.

In fact, folding to big bets with small overpairs with no reads on bad flops like this is not only not a big mistake, its correct.


2. My point here ties in directly with the point I made just above here. First, I apologize, you are not a slight dog in any cases, he is. You are a 60% favorite over 88, a 56% favorite over Ad8d, a 59% favorite over A8o. In case you are going to say +ev is +ev, I want to remind you that calling and hoping for a +ev coinflip is -ev. Even if you add pure bluffs and misclicks to your list of hopes, its -ev.

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I'm not in the habit of folding just because my hand is marginal, nor of getting involved because I have a strong hand.

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Backwards. Folding marginal hands in big pots and getting involved with big hands in big pots is a winning strategy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Getting involved in extremely marginal situations like this one isn't profitable in small stakes poker because you're not going to be right often enough. It isn't necessary either. You have such a huge edge against most of your opponents in small stakes NL games so what is the point in tangling yourself up in messes like this one?

As to what hands I think he has, I think its either a straight or a bigger overpair/set/2pair that is scared of seeing four to the straight + might think he can get a weak call from someone who thinks he is bluffing by over-representing a straight...although I seriously doubt he is thinking that deep. I can really see 88 here too. Bluffs and misclicks are a possibility here, but I don't think they are seen here from an unknown often enough to play for your whole stack. From the looks of the TT vs your AA hand, he seems to overplay his good hands. The problem is that most hands I think he is betting huge on the flop are ahead of your TT.

4. I have already read the article you referenced, but the overbet here isn't good. I rarely bet small when I have the nuts, but this isn't a good time to overbet. If its a bluff, then how do you defend risking 32 to win 7? If he keeps risking 32 to win 7 then he'll be broke in no time. What kind of equity does he have if called? You mean folding equity on the turn?

5. You're absolutely right when you say that getting AA was a better spot but its not an argument against getting involved. However, I didn't have that or any other previous hands in mind when I made that comment. Everyone seems to hate the phrase 'wait for a better spot', but this is a situation where I think you need to wait for a better spot to try and get his stack. Sometimes poker is a game of patience.

Lastly, where are you going with this hand? I hope your not raising on the flop. If you call, what are you doing on the turn card? What about the river? Or are you hoping that it goes call, check, check, check, check?

In conclusion: I didn't intend to get so detailed on this hand so I apologize for the over-analysis. Honestly, I think its a pretty standard fold and not worth the trouble but you have my reasoning so I hope I've made a good case for folding.

PS - Alan Schoonmaker had a great article back in May that I strongly recommend. It was about making posts asking for advice and then making sure to keep an open mind when recieving this advice. Its been taken down, but I have it saved and could PM it to you if he didn't mind. I have taken quite a bit of time to make these posts in an effort to offer helpful advice.