Couple of independent $22+2 hands - Page 2

tigerite · #11 10-20-2005, 06:27 AM

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Hand 2: This is a great spot. You stand to win a lot by pushing (I imagine you get a walk about 1/3 of the time and otherwise it's mostly a coinflip) but calling for set value is also very good.

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I'm sure a push here is (marginally) +EV but just calling and spiking a set is more +EV overall, your odds are a bajillion to one and with so many in the pot, the chances of stacking one (especially if an ace flops) must be huge.

It's also only 1/20th of your stack so doesn't even hurt you in the slightest should you miss.

The second one is a lot more of your stack (75 of 945) just to call and try to spike a set and there's always the (albeit slim) possibility the BB might try some PVS type crap. I like a call here a lot less than I do in the 2nd one. There's also the metagame considerations of "crap, he defends his small blind so I'd better not try to steal from him too much" should you be called and win, it really is worth its weight in gold (depending on the table and how observant it is, of course)

bennies · #12 10-20-2005, 06:43 AM

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Hand 2: This is a great spot. You stand to win a lot by pushing (I imagine you get a walk about 1/3 of the time and otherwise it's mostly a coinflip) but calling for set value is also very good.

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I'm sure a push here is (marginally) +EV but just calling and spiking a set is more +EV overall, your odds are a bajillion to one and with so many in the pot, the chances of stacking one (especially if an ace flops) must be huge.

It's also only 1/20th of your stack so doesn't even hurt you in the slightest should you miss.

The second one is a lot more of your stack (75 of 945) just to call and try to spike a set and there's always the (albeit slim) possibility the BB might try some PVS type crap. I like a call here a lot less than I do in the 2nd one.

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I agree a call is much better in the second hand, but that's because the second hand is simply a much better spot. Seeing a cheap multiway flop with a pocket pair, what more could we ask for?

The first hand is tougher. Calling is something I see more in multi-table tourneys. If the flop comes with no A and only one overcard we're in pretty good shape with TT even oop.

As I said, I don't mind folding the first hand either. 175 chips is not enough for a push to be mandatory, we can find spots later. But I suspect pushing is slightly +EV against most opponents and I suspect calling to be +EV also if Hero is not scared to play post flop.

tigerite · #13 10-20-2005, 06:48 AM

I'm not so sure about that.. 175 is pretty much 20% of our stack. By the way even if the raiser called 100% of the time (he won't) he could have 55+, ATo+, A9s+ to make this a push. That doesn't seem so bad to me.

However I do agree it's quite close as his range wouldn't be much looser than this, and I don't think when he folds it changes it that much, because if he's raising with more and folding those hands we would rather he call with them (due to us being very far ahead).

Seadood228 · #14 10-20-2005, 07:00 AM

Agree Agree Agree...

I like pushing hand one as well. It's fairly close though.

EricW · #15 10-20-2005, 07:21 AM

My reasoning for the way I played it the way I did in hand two was because there was 240 chips in the pot already. I felt that this would greatly help my stack and my chances in the tourney. I don't know if my reasoning is wrong here but I felt that I'd rather take that 240 (provided that everyone folds and even if they don't, I'd be in a likely coinflip anyways) right away than to hope for a set.

Can anyone tell me if my reasoning is wrong here? I mean we flop a set 1/6 times so 5/6 times I'm wasting 60 chips where I can pick up 240 or more 50% of the time provided it's not a higher PP that's calling. Even if I am in a coinflip, it's not like I'm calling all in so there's a chance that everyone folds and then I have a chance to win on a coinflip.

In terms of EV, is this wrong? With my stack size, it's not I'm a shoe in for anything as my equity of the prizepool is not great at all so is it that bad if I bust out on a coinflip?

Opinions?

tigerite · #16 10-20-2005, 07:29 AM

You're wasting 45 chips. You're in the small blind and already have 15 in the pot

If you are one of the better players at the table you should avoid coinflips early.. this is basic tournament stuff

EricW · #17 10-20-2005, 07:30 AM

Post deleted by EricW

EricW · #18 10-20-2005, 07:36 AM

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You're wasting 45 chips. You're in the small blind and already have 15 in the pot

If you are one of the better players at the table you should avoid coinflips early.. this is basic tournament stuff

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lol I just read your reply and then deleted my other one.

The thing is, of course one should pass up small edges early on if one is better than the rest of the field. However, these aren't big stack tournies at you know. There's not much room to make manuevers especially later on.

So in this situation, it's not not I'm going on JUST a small edge. There's potential for me to pick up 240 chips AND I have a possibility to pick up a small edge.

Bah, tweeking one's game isn't fun [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

tigerite · #19 10-20-2005, 08:10 AM

I agree, but there's also 4 people in the pot so the chances of being called is quite high. I dunno, at 15/30 level I think the risk to reward is just a bit too much to be pushing here, even given the 240 in the pot, and I do understand where you're coming from. Also, I don't think a push is -EV or if it is, it's certainly not by much. (Haven't run the numbers, though)

It's just better to play some poker in the first 2-3 levels if you can without risking too much of your stack in my opinion, it'll make you a better player if nothing else, and give you more of a chance of stacking someone when you really do hit the flop hard, too.

Seadood228 · #20 10-20-2005, 08:12 AM

I forgot to respond to hand two.

Your arguement makes a lot of sense, but unfortunately the others might not think that way drastically reducing your FE in this particular situation.

You DO have quite a large edge here and the pot is laying you a nice amount if you push, but the fact of the matter is this is a $20 SNG and I really think there will be greater opportunities later on. I just don't think ~250 chips is worth it at this stage.

As you move up in levels I think this becomes more and more of a push, the level of competition alone dictates this.