A theoretical baseball question

[tdarko]

you need to read my post in reply to sossman, you are talking about one player not the league average, you fail to forget that there are hundred of players that are going to bring down the high averages of the ichiro's and pujols and bond's of the world.

a very close friend of mine and former teammate got a september call up this year for the giants and could barely hit over .100, he is a top 3 prospect in their organization and set just about every AA eastern league record and will mostly likely start in the outfield next year depending on what happens with alou...i know for a fact he can't hit .400 if he knows what is coming, and there are hundreds more in his shoes. you are talking about a very select few that won't bring the TOTAL avg up enough to make a difference.

You are wrong. FWIW, my friend is pitching in one of these games on Wednesday, and Ichiro hits over .400 against him even when Ichiro doesn't know what is coming. That is just one example.

You don't realize how hard it is to recognize a slider half way to the plate and be able to make contact, if you know what is coming, then it's much MUCH easier.

Plus you can just waste the breaking stuff until he throws a fastball again. I stand to my original assessment that the league average would be about .140 points higher.

Plus, say you know a slider is coming... and the pitch starts at the low part of the K zone, you can just lay off it assuming it will drop out of the zone. This would help IMMENSELY.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
you seem to be under the impression that everytime a hitter gets out its the pitcher that gets him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all... BUT, there would be less weak groundballs and popups. There are several pitchers who have nasty sliders, but as the OP stated, the pitcher does not know that you know, so it is doubtful that you'd have someone throwing slider after slider. If the hitter knows what is coming, there is much less likelyhood that he'll top the ball to the SS because he got out on his front leg too earlty. You see guys like Manny, ARod, and Pujols who hit everyone hard. Pujols hit .359 in 2003 and I'd guarantee that it would be at least 100 pts higher if he knew every pitch.

We would run a lot of situational hitting/fielding when I was in college, and guys would rip the ball. We would run a lot of hit and run drills. As a LHP, I absolutely hated them because I knew I was most likely gonna take one off the body at sometime (usually my foot) since these guys knew a curveball was coming and had to hit it to the right side. Guys were still hitting ropes to the right side even through they "had" to make contact and were cutting down on their cuts. If you know a curve or changeup is coming, it is much easier to then sit back and groove one.

For a few pitchers, nothing at all would change. Take Tim Wakefield for example. There would be very little change since he throws 90% knukles and everyone already knows it is coming.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't realize how hard it is to recognize a slider half way to the plate and be able to make contact, if you know what is coming, then it's much MUCH easier.



[/ QUOTE ]
i don't? i know a lot more than you think.

if a pitcher throws a pitchers pitch then there isn't anything a hitter can do period. mariano has been throwing the same pitch for years and nothing has been done about it. ichiro is 1 hitter, i repeat 1 hitter. 1 hitter will not make a difference in the entire league average.

yes, the avg's will be higher but there are too many variables. now that what is being thrown is out there, defenses will be shifted more often just as an example.

this little excericise we are talking about, i have done this and i know how it works, one last thing from my experiences...hitters used to complain about "pitchers BP," saying they hated knowing what was coming, that they just wanted to react to the pitch, that when they knew what the pitch was they would think to much and get in their own head and fail more than when they were just reacting. just a thought for you.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
You are wrong. FWIW, my friend is pitching in one of these games on Wednesday, and Ichiro hits over .400 against him even when Ichiro doesn't know what is coming. That is just one example.

You don't realize how hard it is to recognize a slider half way to the plate and be able to make contact, if you know what is coming, then it's much MUCH easier.

Plus you can just waste the breaking stuff until he throws a fastball again. I stand to my original assessment that the league average would be about .140 points higher.

Plus, say you know a slider is coming... and the pitch starts at the low part of the K zone, you can just lay off it assuming it will drop out of the zone. This would help IMMENSELY.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, I said that the league avg would be up 100-150 pts, which is probably a bit hit (75-100 pts seems a bit better) and that the league leaders (Vlad, Manny, Pujols, and the like) would be hovering around .500. 100 HRs would also be very possible. Bonds would have easily hit a 100 when he broke the record if he knew what was coming. How many warning track fly balls did he hit because he got out a bit early on a cutter?

TDarko, you said that hitters get themselves out just as much as the pitcher does. I agree with this and disagree at the same time. You see hitters getting themselves out in many ways (ie rolling over a curveball and failing to go the other way, etc.) but you have to remember that the pitcher still has a major impact in that by keeping the hitter off balance. Pitchers can get away with hanging some pitches because of this. If the hitter knew that a curve/change was coming instead of having to solely react, they would be plastering these hanging pitches even more than they do today.

[tolbiny]

"hitters used to complain about "pitchers BP," saying they hated knowing what was coming, that they just wanted to react to the pitch, that when they knew what the pitch was they would think to much and get in their own head and fail more than when they were just reacting. just a thought for you."

Not that i know dick about baseball- but wouldn't the fact that hitters spend their entire careers learning to hit a certain way, getting comfortable in a certain zone- and that knowing that "pitchers bp" wasn't going to last more than a few days and it wouldn't do them any good, thier adjustments relally aren't going to be there in the same intensitie that it would be if they knew that they would spend the entire season hitting in this fashion?

run on sentances!!!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't realize how hard it is to recognize a slider half way to the plate and be able to make contact, if you know what is coming, then it's much MUCH easier.



[/ QUOTE ]
i don't? i know a lot more than you think.

if a pitcher throws a pitchers pitch then there isn't anything a hitter can do period. mariano has been throwing the same pitch for years and nothing has been done about it. ichiro is 1 hitter, i repeat 1 hitter. 1 hitter will not make a difference in the entire league average.

yes, the avg's will be higher but there are too many variables. now that what is being thrown is out there, defenses will be shifted more often just as an example.

this little excericise we are talking about, i have done this and i know how it works, one last thing from my experiences...hitters used to complain about "pitchers BP," saying they hated knowing what was coming, that they just wanted to react to the pitch, that when they knew what the pitch was they would think to much and get in their own head and fail more than when they were just reacting. just a thought for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rivera is 1 pitcher. 1 pitcher.

And...the other team doesn't know that you know what is coming. Read the OP.

Don't you realize how much easier it is to hit a change-up when you know it's coming? Or to waste a curve-ball if it's in a good spot? Or to get the bat head down on an otherwise good slider?

Even a guy like Brad Lidge would get SHELLED, due to the fact that anyone (in the bigs) can hit a 97mph fastball if they know it's coming. Who's gonna swing as his low and away slider anymore?

You are vastly underestimating the power of deception for the pitcher. Guys like Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer, Tom Glavine... would all be grossly ineffective as they rely heavily on "smart pitching", and putting the ball where the hitter can't adjust to it in time. Example soft stuff low and away then a "sneaky" 87 mph fastball on the inner half. lol. Hitters could wait on this inner fastball and turn on it like you ain't ever seen.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
mariano has been throwing the same pitch for years and nothing has been done about it. ichiro is 1 hitter, i repeat 1 hitter. 1 hitter will not make a difference in the entire league average.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but Mariano has more than just a great cutter. Also, his cutter has been progressively hit harder over the past 3 seasons. If a hitter knew for sure that the cutter was coming, RH hitters would start opening their hips earlier on the inside cutters and driving the ball oppo or just laying off it if it was on the outside corner. LH hitters would be able to get the bat head out in front more so they would not be getting busted on the hands.

[ QUOTE ]
this little excericise we are talking about, i have done this and i know how it works, one last thing from my experiences...hitters used to complain about "pitchers BP," saying they hated knowing what was coming, that they just wanted to react to the pitch, that when they knew what the pitch was they would think to much and get in their own head and fail more than when they were just reacting. just a thought for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have done this little excersize many of times as well. Our hitters never minded this drill because the were able to work better on picking up ball rotation, release angles, etc. If you are facing a patient hitter, they shouldn't mind much. They still work on their reactions, and really start focusing more on location which any good hitter needs to do well. Great hitters would be uncomprehensible if the ONLY thing they had to focus on was location.

It is true, that even great hitters will have a hard time hitting a good pitchers pitch. But good hitters would be laying off of these and waiting for the mistakes. There is no pitcher in the world that has the accuracy to continue throwing these pitches again and again without making mistakes. Also, if the hitter knew that the slider was coming and the pitcher likes to throw it backdoor, the hitter would compensate and a good pitcher's pitch would become a very hittable ball.

Plus, guys like Juan Pierre and David Eckstein... who don't normally hit for extremely high average, but have great bat control and rarely strikeout... these guys would benefit immensely from this power.

They could easily sit there and foul off pitches they don't like and wait on the pitch they do like.

Plus, studying game film would help you a lot too. If a guy throws a curve and you know it's coming but you still can't hit it... study film and see how far off you are... etc. This would be a most effective exercise against the other teams relievers after the first game of a 4 game series, where you can safely assume you'll face them again soon.

If Tom Gordon comes in and K's you in game 1 of a 4-game series, and you guess to see him 1 or 2 more times then study that game film and you'll nail him.

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
HRs would approach 100.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absurdly high.

[/ QUOTE ]

And 73 is not? Bonds hit a HR that year in every 6.5 ABs. You have to also take into consideration that the hitters would be getting many more ABs throughout the season.