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#11
10-10-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This a clear preflop mistake. It is a leak. You should stop REGULARLY 3-betting AQo without a read that tells you this player raises junk; even if they are a semi-loose raiser, it is usually a mistake to play this hand. You are behind too many hands that are raised here. what are you hoping? They have a small pocket pair? KQ? AJ? JJ? 1010?; these are the best possible scenerios for you. [/ QUOTE ] I want others comments on this [/ QUOTE ] If we were running this hot/cold the sim from PS would look something like this: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 47.8825 % 40.55% 07.33% { AcQd } Hand 2: 52.1175 % 44.78% 07.33% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo } As you can see - we're behind, but it's close. I realize that we're not always running all flops to the river. That's exactly why I think that our favorable position, strong holding and PF initiative with a 3-bet can swing these hot/cold PS numbers in our favor with good post-flop play. Personally, I think that 3-betting gives us a lot more chances to win against hands that are dominating us now (i.e. AK, TT) when they miss and we're able to steal on the flop. This isn't going to happen if you call - and it's obviously not going to happen if you fold. I think that chance to fold a better hand (a BIG FTOP victory) + the number of times we dominate a loose raiser makes this a +EV play (however close it may, or may not, be). There's no way I'm ever folding this here - and I think people that are suggesting we should are missing out on a significant amount of value. 
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#12
10-10-2005, 03:58 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This a clear preflop mistake. It is a leak. You should stop REGULARLY 3-betting AQo without a read that tells you this player raises junk; even if they are a semi-loose raiser, it is usually a mistake to play this hand. You are behind too many hands that are raised here. what are you hoping? They have a small pocket pair? KQ? AJ? JJ? 1010?; these are the best possible scenerios for you. [/ QUOTE ] I want others comments on this [/ QUOTE ] If we were running this hot/cold the sim from PS would look something like this: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 47.8825 % 40.55% 07.33% { AcQd } Hand 2: 52.1175 % 44.78% 07.33% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo } As you can see - we're behind, but it's close. I realize that we're not always running all flops to the river. That's exactly why I think that our favorable position, strong holding and PF initiative with a 3-bet can swing these hot/cold PS numbers in our favor with good post-flop play. Personally, I think that 3-betting gives us a lot more chances to win against hands that are dominating us now (i.e. AK, TT) when they miss and we're able to steal on the flop. This isn't going to happen if you call - and it's obviously not going to happen if you fold. I think that chance to fold a better hand (a BIG FTOP victory) + the number of times we dominate a loose raiser makes this a +EV play (however close it may, or may not, be). There's no way I'm ever folding this here - and I think people that are suggesting we should are missing out on a significant amount of value. [/ QUOTE ] I though everyone says the 3/6 games are kind of weak-tightish. Sure a 2+2er will have an UTG opening range this big, but I don't think a typical 3/6 player does.
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#13
10-10-2005, 04:06 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
I though everyone says the 3/6 games are kind of weak-tightish. Sure a 2+2er will have an UTG opening range this big, but I don't think a typical 3/6 player does. [/ QUOTE ] If that's the case - then I can understand a fold. If the UTG PFRs range tightens up much more than what I have shown - I'm not sure that good postflop play will cover the gap in PF equity disadvantage. If the range is equal to, or larger than, what I have shown in my earlier post - I really don't see how you can pass up a 3-bet. As others have said - knowing your opponent goes a LONG way in these situations. In the absence of a good read - and assuming that 85%+ or the time you have a good read (through the usual methods) - I don't see how one action or the other has the potential magnitude or frequency to be a really huge mistake. Raise/fold - either is marginal at best. In these situations I prefer "raise"... As Nick said in the other thread "Because it's fun!" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#14
10-10-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
BLUNDER: NEVER FOLDING AQo to an early position raiser; and yes MP1 still usually has tight raising standards. Further, you assume that the early position raiser is bad and is going to just allow you to take the pot from them. This is wrong on a few levels: (1) you have no read, so you do not know anything about the player; underestimating the player is your very first mistake. (2)How many bad players fold AK heads up? good luck catching that queen. (3)Sure sometimes you will raise the flop and they will fold on the turn; other times you will get 3-bet on the flop, slowplayed, turn checkraised, river raised etc. by a better hand;(4) There will be times that you hit the Ace and pay off to AK (5) The times that you bluff the pot or simply have the best hand alone can't make up the -ev of this bet; this only gets worse the more bets you throw in preflop.(6)running hot/cold helps your hand because it give you a good chance to draw out on someone raising any small pair when in the hand you certainly would not be getting odds to chase a weak draw when you miss on the flop.
You really need to pick your spots and have good reads to make this play; Most of the time your read should tell you to fold.
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#16
10-10-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river Given the likely hands of UTG, his most likely hands are AQ, AK, AJ, KQs and you might be able to fold him out of it. [/ QUOTE ] Betting the river is horrible. You'll never get a better hand to fold. Other A-high hands often won't fold either. You do not really represent any hand that hit this board, so villain will call pretty liberally here. Betting will just cause you to chop a lot and lose the rest of the time. You're also never getting called by a worse hand, obviously.
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#17
10-10-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This a clear preflop mistake. It is a leak. You should stop REGULARLY 3-betting AQo without a read that tells you this player raises junk; even if they are a semi-loose raiser, it is usually a mistake to play this hand. You are behind too many hands that are raised here. what are you hoping? They have a small pocket pair? KQ? AJ? JJ? 1010?; these are the best possible scenerios for you. [/ QUOTE ] I want others comments on this [/ QUOTE ] Yea, AQo is not an auto three bet. A read is important because a tight player you can fold and a loose pf raiser you can isolation/value raise. Also position is key. If it was later it can be weaker and an argument for three betting is there, but UTG raiser eliminates this and makes a read all the more important.
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#18
10-10-2005, 05:40 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
I won't talk about preflop, the right play here postflop is to check the turn and fold the river unless you improve, with any two pair being improving. The reason for this is that you started with the worst hand on purpose preflop and unless you think he raises AJ and KQ which most don't, now you can't win because you are beaten by almost all his hands and tie a % that isn't even covered by pot odds, and he'll never fold to you on this board, so just cut your losses and don't even waste one bet.
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#19
10-10-2005, 05:41 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
wooops, misread the action and thought villain donked the flop and checked the turn. I still don't think betting is that bad here. I don't think villain has an overpair here as he would have put in a bet somwhere on this board. On top of that if he's got AJ/AQ/AK he doesn't have to fold often to make this a +EV bet as we can be pretty confident we're not losing on the river.
As a side note, if the river had been a brick that didn't pair the board, I think betting the river w/AQ is even more correct b/c of the distinct possiblity he has AQ/AK and is willing to fold on that river when he doesn't hit.
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#20
10-10-2005, 05:50 PM
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Re: I dislike AQ example 1
[ QUOTE ]
You're also never getting called by a worse hand, obviously [/ QUOTE ] I'm not so sure this is true. K high hands do call here a fair amount of the time @ 3/6 and KQs is a reasonable raising hand from UTG. You're also not representing a hand that connected w/the board. You're representing an overpair and a real weaktightie might fold A high there. Again, not a big possibility but def something that you should take into conisderation.
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