Bigstack ITM: Overcall with KJo?

[TheNoodleMan]

NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee
Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Thursday, October 06, 18:15:41 EDT 2005
Table Table 11929 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: ASEXYSUE ( $1345 )
Seat 7: rainman_mon ( $2095 )
Seat 10: <font color="red"> Hero </font> ( $4560 )
Trny:16385182 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to <font color="red"> Hero </font> [ Ks Jc ]
ASEXYSUE is all-In [1345]
rainman_mon is all-In [1995]
<font color="red"> Hero...? </font>

<font color="blue"> Should I sit back and get HU, or take a shot at ending the whole thing right here? If they each have a non dominating ace or a pair TT or lower, I'm in pretty good shape. Thoughts? </font>

[Taraz]

I'm curious about the answer to this as well. I would probably fold and virtually guarantee myself 2nd. It just seems that for one of the smaller stacks to call the other's push would indicate a very strong hand.

[Deuce2High]

I think that this would be a bad call.

[MegaBet]

Fold, no question.

I'm guessing that you're asking this question because you would have hit your king and won, but don't be results oriented.

[unreal_nh]

blinds only 100/200? FOLD

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, no question.

I'm guessing that you're asking this question because you would have hit your king and won, but don't be results oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]
actually, I'm asking because SNGPT doesn't do overcalls, but it would be a nice feature, wouldn't it?

[Deuce2High]

Yes, it would... *Cough Cough Eastbay Cough Cough*

[ QUOTE ]
actually, I'm asking because SNGPT doesn't do overcalls, but it would be a nice feature, wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Overcalls aren't a realistic and/or helpful feature on sngpt because you are playing way too much guesswork by putting two people on ranges of hands. Usually you should only consider overcalling with a stack much bigger than your opponents or a really great hand anyway so I don't see how this feature would help that much unless you had a really good read on your opponents.

[TheNoodleMan]

Okay I'm just thinking out loud here so bear with me, this might be horribly flawed.
For the sake of argument, lets say that the small stack pushed with AQo and the other stack called with 99.
If I overcall with KJo, twodimes serves up the following:
Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1264452
pokenum -h ad qs - 9s 9h - ks jc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
<font color="blue"> Player A </font> Qs Ad 489380 35.70 877737 64.03 3637 0.27 0.358
<font color="blue"> Player B </font> 9s 9h 466295 34.02 900822 65.72 3637 0.27 0.341
<font color="blue"> Player C </font> Ks Jc 411442 30.02 955675 69.72 3637 0.27 0.301

So, 30% of the time is game over. Player C wins.
34% of the time palyer B wins. Leaving me HU facing a 5535-2465 chip deficit.
36% of the time Player A wins.
This is where it gets a little sticky. A little more than half the time, the 99 beats my KJ and player B stays alive. The rest of the time I get HU with player A. I going to guess and call it 55% to 45% (If you can come up with a more accurate figure, please chime in with it.) That means:
16% of the time I'm HU with player A. He has a slight 4035 to 3965 lead.
20% of the time player A has 4035 chips, player B 1500 chips, player C has 2465.

So now we need to bring in the ICM calculations for each scenario.
30% of the time player C wins 50% of the prize pool. $150
34% of the time player C wins 36.16% of the prize pool. $108.48
16% of the time player C wins 39.91% of the prize pool. $119.73
20% of the time player C wins 33.09% of the prize pool. %99.27

So if crunch all of these stats together, we get combined ICM value of 40.29% $120.89
Folding and letting the 2 short stacks battle it out gives player C 40.0% of the prize pool when player A stays alive and 40.9% of the prize pool when player B eliminates player A. Folding gets a combined 40.49% of the prize pool, $121.48

So what does this all mean? Well considering that we can't really put both players on exactly these specific hands and that if player C were to have a dominated hand or be up aginst AA-JJ this would turn soundly -ev, and this nearly best case scenario wins only an extra 59 cents, the best option is to fold fold.

[caretaker1]

[ QUOTE ]


<font color="blue"> Should I sit back and get HU, or take a shot at ending the whole thing right here? If they each have a non dominating ace or a pair TT or lower, I'm in pretty good shape. Thoughts? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Sit back and watch your equity rise. KJ isn't that great here.

$.02

BTW: Nice analysis noodle.