CardPlayer Quiz

drewjustdrew · #1 08-31-2005, 01:25 PM

From Cardplayer (link probably changes when new quiz is added.)

Question

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A $10-$20 game. You raise from middle position with the A-K after an early player limps. Two middle players call as well as the early limper. There is $95 in the pot and four players. The flop is: 9-7-3, leaving you with two big overcards. The early limper checks. You bet and one of the middle players calls. There is $115 in the pot and two players. The turn is the A, giving you top pair, top kicker. You bet and get raised. What do you do?
Answer

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Fold. Similar to many problems in this chapter, when you get raised on the turn, you are almost always beat when having one pair. (On occasion, you are up against a tricky player who likes to semi-bluff draws on the expensive street.) There is $175 in the pot and it costs you $20 to call. These are pot odds of 9-to-1. If your opponent is raising on aces-up, then the number of outs you have depends upon his second pair. With him having aces over nines, you have three outs (any king). With aces over sevens, you have six outs (any king or nine). With aces over treys, you have nine outs (any king, nine, or seven). So one might conclude that on average you have about six outs, which is a 7-to-1 shot, and therefore you have a call. However, if your opponent does have two pair, you do not know which two they are, and thus may lose additional money on the river. Furthermore, your opponent may have a set, in which case you are drawing dead. Since he cold-called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with 9-9, 7-7, 3-3, or A-9 than some other holding.

Do people agree with this line? Is it kinda convenient to think that A-9 is one of his 4 most likely holdings here?

SeaEagle · #2 08-31-2005, 01:42 PM

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Do people agree with this line? Is it kinda convenient to think that A-9 is one of his 4 most likely holdings here?

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IIRC, these questions are from one of Ciaffone's books. I think Bob's opponents tend to be a lot more solid than your typical online SS player. I'm sure his reasoning includes the idea that villian wouldn't have called a flop bet without a piece of the flop so when he raises the turn, you're always behind. Online SS, I would expect to see villian with something like AJ (or a bluff) a lot more often than the 1 in 6 I need to make calling down the right play.

fizzleboink · #3 08-31-2005, 01:44 PM

This seems incredibly weak to me. Maybe if you had some read on him as a super good player.

If he's an idiot he might have thought: "Hey I just paired my ace, maybe he has a pocket pair, I'll raise!".

I think the reverse implied odds of hitting the wrong two pair on the river probably cancel with the implied odds of hitting the right two pair on the river. Unless he always checks or folds the river when he gets counterfitted.

callmedonnie · #4 08-31-2005, 01:44 PM

Yea, I instinctively go into call down cheap mode in these spost. Against a maniac I obviuosly raise, and against a solid player calling two cold and put them on a set. But HU I don't usually fold to suspected sets I call down. With other players giving action, even thought my odds go up I can get away easier if I have no redraws.

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Since he cold-called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with 9-9, 7-7, 3-3, or A-9 than some other holding.

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I am going to use this sentence as a "read" and assume you are playing against a good player. Since he is not afraid of the Ace, a fold is probably best.

shant · #5 08-31-2005, 01:52 PM

My usual line at this spot on the turn is to stop reading CardPlayer.

drewjustdrew · #6 08-31-2005, 01:52 PM

Do good players call raises cold with A9 suited? That's what's confusing. If you can give credit for this hand, you can give credit for 10-8 suited, JT suited or really any suited ace.

Bodhi · #7 08-31-2005, 01:53 PM

The players in that game must be very tough, because in the games I play in the the guy to me left will have 73sooted or something like that. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

jskills · #8 08-31-2005, 02:04 PM

10-20 live is a lot different than what most people here play which is 2-4, 3-6 online. Sure you'll likely encounter better players at 10-20 than we do online.

No way in hell I fold in 2-4 in that spot. Just couldn't.

krubban · #9 08-31-2005, 02:07 PM

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My usual line at this spot on the turn is to stop reading CardPlayer.

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excellent [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

W. Deranged · #10 08-31-2005, 02:12 PM

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10-20 live is a lot different than what most people here play which is 2-4, 3-6 online. Sure you'll likely encounter better players at 10-20 than we do online.

No way in hell I fold in 2-4 in that spot. Just couldn't.

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No. Live 10-20 players really suck. I'm not sure about 2-4, but I can say with confidence that 90% of 3-6 online tables I've played are harder than the average live 10-20 table I've played. I played 10-20 last night at Turning Stone and in the course of 7 hours of play and probably 15 opponents I didn't encounter a single player who could play at all.

By the way, this advice is one case where Ciaffone and Jim Brier can best be likened to 4 year old girls. Easy call down.