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Old 08-15-2005, 10:32 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Posts: 51
Default Missed AK or Flush Draw, or does He Have the Goods?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

$30 + $3

UTG (t895)
UTG+1 (t2910)
MP1 (t1325)
MP2 (t2150)
CO (t1290)
Button (t2490)
SB (t1370)
Hero (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t50.

I will usually call in this spot since I still have 20x BB and am getting more than 3-to-1 odds not counting the implied odds if I flop my set.

Flop: (t225) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t225</font>

I'm usually of the "no set, no bet" mindset, but this looks like a pretty good flop to take a pop at. In hindsight, I probably should have bet t150 to t175 to gain the same information. Does anybody routinely check fold here?

<font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t2050</font>, Hero....?

This smells strongly like the either the missed AK or flush draw. Of course, could be a bigger PP or trips afraid of the flush draw and I'm already beat.

Pot is offering nearly 2-to-1 odds. What's your move, and is it even a hard decision...?
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  #2  
Old 08-15-2005, 10:44 PM
fisherman112 fisherman112 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Default Re: Missed AK or Flush Draw, or does He Have the Goods?

you're asking the forum if they have a better read on your opponents raise than someone who just spent 30 minutes playing with him. this is a clear fold. for the record, a flush draw with overcards is significantly ahead of you at this point, since a 6 counterfeits your hand, giving him 18 outs. even AK has a 35% chance to win when you throw the 6 in. run screaming.

oops, the flush draw with overcards has 17 outs since you have the 5 of diamonds.
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  #3  
Old 08-15-2005, 10:56 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Default Re: Missed AK or Flush Draw, or does He Have the Goods?

[ QUOTE ]
since a 6 counterfeits your hand, giving him 17 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I totally missed that and counted 14 outs twice for about even odds against the flush draw with overs.
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