O/8 hand

[Walter]

This is from a 5-10 O/8 game. Comment at any stage please.

I am in the big blind with Ad 2s Qs Td
Six players see the flop for 2 bets, so there is $60 in the pot on the flop.

The flop comes Js 9h 8s
This gives me the nut straight, a redraw to a higher straight, and a backdoor flush and low draw.
The small blind bets, I raise, two players fold, someone makes it three bets, then the preflop raiser calls three cold. The small blind folds and I call. At this point, I figure that the 3-bettor has a hand quite similar to mine, and the person who called three cold must have the nut spade draw along with a draw to a full house.

So there is now $110 in the pot and three players.

The turn is the 7h. So I now have a nut low draw. I check, the three-bettor on the flop bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, I raise, the three-bettor again makes it three bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, and I call.

There is $200 in the pot and three players.

The river is the Kh. It gives me the nut straight, but also completes the runner flush. I check, the three-bettor bets, the cold-caller calls, I call.

Results to follow . . .

[iblucky4u2]

This is a classic O/8 hand. It looks like one thing is happening then winds up being somehting else. Some observations - you do not have a "back door flush" draw - you have a legitimate flush draw - although it is only the 3rd nut flush. Flopped str8s are very vulnerable in O/8, to higher str8s, flushes and full houses. In limit O/8, you are not going to drive the nut flush draw out - especially since with the A spades, they proabably have a back door low draw. Same with a flopped set (especially if it is the high set) You have to make up your mind if you want to cap on flop and turn and hope either your str8 holds up, you make a low or if your flush comes it will be good.

Hopefully Buzz will provide the stats on what % of the time your str8 will hold up.

Clearly, with the size of the pot, you are 100% correct to call the river.

[Buzz]

"Comment at any stage please."

"I am in the big blind with Ad 2s Qs Td"

Walter - Nice starting hand. Playable from any position in any kind of game. (passive or aggressive, tight or loose, short-handed or full).

"Six players see the flop for 2 bets, so there is $60 in the pot on the flop. "

Looking good. Seems as though the opponent who cold called three bets on the second betting round is the same opponent who raised pre-flop. Correct?

"The small blind bets, I raise, two players fold, someone makes it three bets, then the preflop raiser calls three cold. The small blind folds and I call. "

Flopped nut straights are notorious for not holding up in Omaha-8. Thus I can see raising on the second betting round to try to win the pot right here with everyone folding to your raise. Trouble is, I haven’t played in many $5-$10 games where this ploy has worked well for me. I'd probably still raise here, hoping to at least limit the field. I can also see limping with a flopped nut straight.

Another consideration is you're out of position here. If the board later flushes or pairs, you'll probably be stuck checking and then wondering whether to call the (almost inevitable) bet or not.

“At this point, I figure that the 3-bettor has a hand quite similar to mine, and the person who called three cold must have the nut spade draw along with a draw to a full house. ”

Not unreasonable.

At this point, unless your active opponents are poor players or maniacs, you have to suspect at least one of them also has QTXX. Maybe both of them do. You wrote that six players saw the flop. I wonder how many players were originally dealt cards. When ten players were originally dealt cards and you are dealt QTXX, then one other player (out of your nine opponents) will also have been dealt QTXX approximately 38% of the time and two other players will also have been dealt QTXX approximately 5% of the time. There is no saying whether or not someone else who has been dealt QTXX would see the flop or not. Depends on the other cards dealt to the player and also on the looseness of the player, among other factors. In a loose $5-$10 game, with the information you have given, there simply is no way to tell for sure. But I’d have a strong hunch that at least one of my opponents also had QTXX here.

After this flop there are, from your viewpoint, 990 different two card combinations possible on the turn and river. Of these, assuming one opponent has QTXX, but nobody else has A2XX:
1/990 you end up with the nut spade flush for a scooper,
80/990 you end up with the nut straight plus the nut low for 3/4 of the pot,
62/990 there is no low and you end up with the nut straight for half the pot,
70/990 you end up with the nut low but not the nuts for high for a possible half of the pot.
74/990 you end up with the nut straight, but an opponent has the nut low and you get quartered for high,
703/990 you don’t end up with the nuts for either high or low. You may win anyway, but it will be with a non-nut hand.

Sobering, eh? As I wrote above, flopped nut straights are notorious for not holding up. But who knows? You may make the 3rd nut spade flush for a winner. Or your flopped nut straight may win even if the board pairs or a heart flush becomes possible via the back door on the river.

Thus you may win anyway, however your flopped nut straight is an underdog to still be the nuts on the river.

I wonder why you didn’t make it four bets on the second betting round. Did you back away because you suspected you might be quartered for high if your flopped nut straight did hold up? (There are clearly a number of other considerations).

“So there is now $110 in the pot and three players. The turn is the 7h. So I now have a nut low draw. I check, the three-bettor on the flop bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, I raise, the three-bettor again makes it three bets, the pre-flop raiser calls, and I call. ”

You evidently checked planning to check-raise. I’m not sure why you did that. I’m not criticizing you for your play, just not sure why you went for a check-raise. (I probably would have bet, rather than going for the check-raise, on the third betting round. Then, after getting raised here by a respectable opponent, I would back off, just as you did). I'd bet here, at least partly, to prevent an opponent behind me (who might have raised on the second betting round with a set) from getting a free card on the turn at my expense.

But now, if there was any doubt after the betting on the flop, it really looks like at least one of your opponents has QTXX plus a redraw to a flush or full house, or also to the nut low.

After the 7h on the turn I really like ten cards for you (3c, 3d, 4c, 4d, 5c, 5d, 6c, 6d, Kc, and Kd). You should show a profit if any of these cards comes on the river. You might scoop or you might split with one or two other QTXX highs - and/or split with one or two A2XX lows.

I feel kind of neutral about twelve other cards (Ac, 2c, 2d, 3h, 3s, 4h, 4s, 5h, 5s, 6h, 6s, and Ks). You’ll get a share of the pot with any of these twelve cards, but it might be only a quarter or a sixth of the pot. Or you might get lucky and 3/4 or scoop - but considering the active betting, respectable opponents would be expected to have decent hands with many (but not all) of the possibilities covered. .

I don’t like the other twenty two cards for you, any one of which can mess you up so that you might get nothing here. You still might get lucky and get a share of the pot (or even scoop) anyhow if one of these 22 cards shows up on the river, but I don’t think you should count on doing well if one of these remaining 22 cards appears on the river.

Although I would have bet the turn, after considering your outs and the fact that you only have two opponents, in hindsight, I don't think the odds are favorable for a bet on the turn. It's something for me to think about in terms of the way I play myself. Calling as you did, rather than capping the betting, after your check-raise gets raised on the third betting round seems proper play.

“The river is the Kh. It gives me the nut straight, but also completes the runner flush. I check, the three-bettor bets, the cold-caller calls, I call. ”

Ugh. Regardless of the result, because of the size of the pot, you’re stuck calling here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

Buzz - thanks for supplying the detailed analysis and stats. I did not realize that 703/990 combos = no nut high or low with these cards. Based on that, it is almost a fold on the flop as this hand would be a huge underdog 7 out of 9 times!

[Buzz]

iblucky4u2 - You’re welcome. Here are a few more details, in case you’re interested. You only back-door a low 160/990 with this hand/flop. For exactly half of those lows, 80/990, the nut straight holds up and for the other half a heart or spade flush becomes possible (10/990 for the heart flush and 70/990 for the spade flush).

“ I did not realize that 703/990 combos = no nut high or low with these cards. Based on that, it is almost a fold on the flop as this hand would be a huge underdog 7 out of 9 times!”

After this flop, the hand is a 71% underdog to end up as the nuts, but while you usually need the nuts to end up a winner for low, that isn’t the case for high nearly as often as it is for low.

For example, I’m fairly confident, when you make a king high flush holding exactly two cards in the flush suit in four card Omaha or Omaha-8, that the probability of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make an ace high flush is 0.401 in a ten handed game and 0.356 in a nine handed game. Thus in a loose ten handed Omaha-8 game, a non-nut king high flush should win for high about three times out of five while losing to an ace high flush the other two times out of five.

I don’t know exactly what the probability is of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make either an ace high flush or a king high flush, when you make a queen high flush. I also don’t know exactly what the probability is of an opponent having been dealt cards that would make a full house if the board pairs on the turn or river here. If you were certain one of these was going to happen, you’d probably do better folding on the flop.

However, you don’t know for certain the board will pair or flush on the turn or river. And even if it does, there is a fair chance your hand may hold up for high, either as a straight or as a non-nut flush. Similarly, you don’t know for certain a higher straight will become possible, and even if it does, there is a fair chance your non-nut straight will be good for high.

Thus I would not fold this hand after this flop. The small blind led with a bet after this flop. Walter raised, then backed off when one opponent made it three bets and yet another opponent cold called the three bets. Walter’s actions on the second betting round seem very reasonable to me. It would seem difficult to foresee the re-raise and the cold-call of three bets coming ahead of time. Then, considering the size of the pot, calling the re-raise on the second betting round seems the correct thing to do. There is still hope for the turn and river and Walter was getting pot odds of twenty to one for the call here at the end of the second betting round (plus implied pot odds).

The seven of hearts on the turn is not a great card for Walter, opening the door for a heart flush. However, neither is the seven of hearts a horrid card, since it doesn’t pair or flush the board and since it also gives Walter a draw for low. Although I originally suggested leading on the third betting round, as I think more about it now, maybe the best way to handle the third betting round, considering the betting action up to this point, would be to check and call. Because of the size of the pot, Walter certainly has odds to see the river card. Then, also because of the size of the pot, I think Walter should call on the river.

Walter hasn’t posted the results yet. We still don’t know if maybe he lucked out and somehow scooped, with neither opponent having the heart flush and also neither opponent somehow having the QT straight.

But I don’t think this is an automatic fold on the flop.

Just my opinion at this time. Thanks, as always, for your excellent input.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

Even though the odds are not ther for the str8 to hold up, I would never fold this hand on the flop in a limit O/8 game, nor do I know anyone who would. The same cannot be said for a nut str8 on a flop of say 467 (especially two to a flush) where a BB hand might have 58xx. Here the low is already made and there is no possibility to scoop - a factor that I believe makes the hand Walter posted much more worth while (if anyone has read my posts, then my view on how hands that can scoop are much more valuable). I might fold this crap on the flop. Just my view.

[Walter]

Thanks for all of the insight. I have implanted a calculator in my arm to run the numbers before these types of hands develop.

Sadly, the cold-caller not only had the nut spade draw, but he had a heart draw as well (As8sQh6h), and a weak low draw (dead to a deuce).

The other player had AKQT with a king-high spade flush draw. So if the board had paired, no one would have improved to a full house.