Longest Run without AA or KK

Onaflag:

IF I'm not mistaken the chances of getting aces or simply (1/221)^2, since they are independant events. So about 1 in 48841 hands you'll get aces followed by aces.

i have that beat, i have had AA or KK 29 times this week, and have only won with them 4 times! They are currently my most unprofitable hand, how freggin sick!
and i protect them like a knight.
cdl

[emp1346]

ohnonotthat wrote:
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Re the math - I add this since I didn't see it in any of the other posts and there are some who don't know how to calculate it - this one is easy.

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Read the posts you lazy bastard... Like, maybe, the SECOND ONE...

emp1346 wrote:
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As for you run of cards, mathematically, it's extraordinarily unlikely that such a run can last so long...

The odds of not getting AA or KK in 5000 hands is on the level of approximately .000000000000000000018 percent of happening... or something around there...

And I myself can't say I've gone so long without seeing one of these hands...

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not only that, but you came up with the exact same thing posted somewhere before... where was it now? hmm... oh yeah... the second post in this thread...

[DamnRinger]

Again in complete the opposite direction, i got dealt AA 7 times in a 10 hour session at the Tropicana in Atlantic City. This is an amazing feat in itself and definitely the most i've ever seen the hand in one session.

The really amazing feat of this whole thing is i managed to get AA when a player had KK 3 times during that session. Coincidently i made out like an absolute bandit. But i feel that's really the exact of what OP is experiencing.

[DamnRinger]

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i have that beat, i have had AA or KK 29 times this week, and have only won with them 4 times! They are currently my most unprofitable hand, how freggin sick!
and i protect them like a knight.
cdl

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clearly means you need to rework your play with these premium hands.

What will suck is when you Finally get them and lose to J9o

I have actually seen a guy on Poker Stars get them 3 in a row. He busted me out if a tournament because I flopped top pair (Kings) and thought there was no way he could have AA again.

-phxpoker
Phoenix's largest online poker community

[damaniac]

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He busted me out if a tournament because I flopped top pair (Kings) and thought there was no way he could have AA again.

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Cuz that's how probability works, once he's had them, he's less likely to hold them next time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Cuz that's how probability works, once he's had them, he's less likely to hold them next time.

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No, but it sure doesn't seem very likely when you've just seen the same guy show them twice in a row. But there they were. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

- phxpoker

Phoenix's largest online poker community

[meow_meow]

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mathematically you should get aces 1/221 hands (it's 1/13 * 3/51).... and aces OR kings should be every 2/221 hands, which simplifies to about 1/111.... so to say you haven't gotten either in 5,000 hands (45 times the length you should normally have to wait) is highly unlikely.

what is very likely, however, is you have actually gotten both several times and have forgotten.

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Yeah, unless you are using PT of course. Are you?

nah, bad beats of the century, ull have them too eventually.

If I could replay the river beats Ive had on AA or KK in the last month, you would be astounded.
cdl