Longest Run without AA or KK

[Onaflag]

Sorry to bust in here with an opposite story. Lastnight. Local B&M. 3/6 full kill. I look down and find aces. I raise. 2 callers. Flop brings 2 to a suit. I bet. 1 caller. Turn is 3rd of the suit. I bet. 1 caller. River is the fourth of the suit. I don't have one. I check. Dude checks. He takes the pot. Who cares? Pot was small. Didn't bother me.

Guys next to me lament over me getting aces cracked. I could care less, but play along with them and say I'm on tilt (which I am not) and I'm raising any two cards next hand.

I look down and find aces again. Raise, raise, raise, cap. By the river the pot is well over 30 BB, closer to 35. They hold up and the table freaks out. What are the chances of that happening? Aces back to back.

Sorry about your run without aces or kings, but remember that freaky things happen statistically and if you play long enough, you will have seen it all.

Onaflag...........

[SL__72]

I've never gotten AA/KK, consider yourself lucky...

[RRRRICK]

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Jesus! 5000 hands in 100 hours thats about a hand a minute at B&M! Where do you play? The casinoes I play are so damn slow. But I must say that is strange, since statistically you get AA or KK every 100 hands.

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100 B&M + 100 Online

[jojobinks]

in the last 117 times i've had AA i've only won 73.5% of the time. now THAT sucks.

[Pog0]

haha sucker, 73.64% for me, I must be running hot.

[yvesaint]

Man, I haven't gotten 93s for at least 500 hands ... consider yourself lucky ...

I actually nabbed AA 5 times today. Three times I raised 2bb preflop to protect it and everyone, including blinds folded. The other two times I actually lost with the hand, kept betting all the way to the river and a guy caught his trips. Twice. I consider that an 0-5 day by AA standards.

[papa_georgio]

I've got my own streak of no AA/KK going. It's at about 1200 hands.

[ohnonotthat]

the unUSUAL with the unLIKELY and this seems to be an excellent example.

That said, 5,000 hands with neither Aces or Kings is both.

Re the math - I add this since I didn't see it in any of the other posts and there are some who don't know how to calculate it - this one is easy.

There is a 2/221 chance of being dealt one of these two.

The chance of going 5,000 hands with neither is simply 219/221 to the 5,000th power.

The humorous remarks regarding a lengthy run without one of the perennial favorites such as 9-3s or the like demonstrate the principle well; I'm assuming they were made facetiously and that the poster does not actually chart the frequency of hands such as these.

I hope that helped; I realize I did not actually answer your question. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

One last thought:

In the event you are concerned that a lengthy streak with no premium hands could involve some form of shenanigans be assured it almost certainly does not.

If you start getting Aces or Kings once per round you might have reason to be concerned.

It's easy to go off for a mountain of chips with a big hand; it's far more difficult to put a serious dent in your stack without one.

As a dear friend of mine is fond of saying - as he peeks down to see yet another trash hand - "I have never misplayed these two cards in my life", and into the muck they go.

[SL__72]

Last night I got AA in back to back hands and flopped a set both times. Not only that but it was capped preflop and on the flop both times... Also I saw showdowns with both and beat the same guy both times... he wasn't happy.