ICM says this is a fold. I always thought this was a push...wtf

[The Don]

It's defintely a push... I don't think ICM takes into account that you are being hit with the blinds next hand.

[Nick B.]

I wouldn't push A7o utg 5 handed, there is too great a chance that you will be called and only have 3 outs. I would push KQ though.

[eastbay]

There's an important thing to consider for SnGPT analysis UTG, and the current version of SnGPT does not do it automatically, although it's something that's going in very soon, to be more user-friendly for newer or less familiar users for hands exactly like this.

Here's the deal: Your "$EV fold" which provides the baseline for comparison against your push is computed from your stack after you fold this hand, but before you post any blinds in any future hands.

If you are going to be taking a big blind hit in the next hand, you really should be discounting your fold equity.

This is very easy to do. Just take the big blind out of your stack NOW and recalculate. You should consider your fold equity to be somewhere between the nominal value and the discounted value. In a very passive game, where you are likely to get a pass in your BB, you should consider it to be closer to the pre-blind value. In a more aggressive game, were you are not likely to get a pass, you should consider it to be much closer to the discounted value. Exactly where to choose is a matter of judgement based on the game conditions, but it is probably reasonable to just pick the discounted value as a conservative default.

Now compare THIS new "$EV fold" to your original "$EV push". I think this answer will be less surprising, although you are still subject to horrid position here, so the true range may be far tighter than you realized even with the discounting adjustment.

Look for an update soon that automatically takes care of this position based equity discounting.

eastbay

[derdo]

I wouldn't push this for 2 reasons.
1) big stack is the big blind. he'll call a good % of the time.
2) Big stack is to your right and You have two medium stack to your left. Even if you eat the blinds you have some folding equity against them. I think, it is safer to push with two worse cards when big stack folds.

Cem