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#1
07-04-2005, 07:12 PM
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Baseball stat - Jack?
Is there a way to predict a pitchers expected ERA based on his other stats?
I just looked at Gagne's 2003 stats again. Based on his WHIP, strikeout rate, and home runs allowed, it seems like he had to be a little unlucky to not have an ERA below 1.00. Anyone have any idea if there's a way to estimate something like that? 
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#2
07-04-2005, 07:13 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
Be sure to factor in DIPS.
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#3
07-04-2005, 07:17 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
[ QUOTE ]
Be sure to factor in DIPS. [/ QUOTE ] like whether he chews or not and how often?
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#4
07-04-2005, 07:24 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
dont forget YRAQS and reverse implied LAT4 categories. those ones have a direct correlation with the amount of VAWP the pitcher has in games over 6 innings, but not if his OBA+ is too high.
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#5
07-04-2005, 09:08 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
[ QUOTE ]
Is there a way to predict a pitchers expected ERA based on his other stats? I just looked at Gagne's 2003 stats again. Based on his WHIP, strikeout rate, and home runs allowed, it seems like he had to be a little unlucky to not have an ERA below 1.00. Anyone have any idea if there's a way to estimate something like that? [/ QUOTE ] FIP ERC DIPS
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#6
07-04-2005, 09:09 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Be sure to factor in DIPS. [/ QUOTE ] like whether he chews or not and how often? [/ QUOTE ] Defense Independent Pitching Stats.
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#7
07-04-2005, 09:56 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
Using the formula from the FIP link I came up with 0.75 for Gagne in 2003 (I used 3.2 as the league factor).
Does that mean with an average defense his ERA should have been about 0.75, give or take whatever the exact league factor for that years was?
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#8
07-04-2005, 10:03 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
[ QUOTE ]
Using the formula from the FIP link I came up with 0.75 for Gagne in 2003 (I used 3.2 as the league factor). Does that mean with an average defense his ERA should have been about 0.75, give or take whatever the exact league factor for that years was? [/ QUOTE ] Kinda. You have to remember that 81 IP ain't much.
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#10
07-04-2005, 10:11 PM
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Re: Baseball stat - Jack?
BTW, you can check ERC and DIPS for 2003 at the ESPN site.
ERC says 0.71, DIPS says 1.05 Formulas like these usually break down with extreme outliers, though.
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