Bluff raising the river

[jjacky]

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well, there aren`t so many 3 bets, but maybe about 15% of the time (if the remaining players 3 bet it with 10s or better AK and AQ which is a reasonable assumption, regarding to the image of UTG and hero). and when nobody 3 bets it, someone will cold call or call from the blinds about half the time or more. that leaves you with a chance to isolate UTG of maybe 45%. and if he happens to have as weak a holding as A6o or K7s hero is behind anyway.

that doesn't sound like a favorable situation, does it?

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Do you have the math for this? With just a handful of players behind us, I really find the estimation that we'll be three-bet 15% of the time to be high.

Secondly, the fact that we may be behind to something like A6o or K7s isn't a big deal. The preflop play puts us in position to win the hand unimproved with a bet on the flop or the turn. So not only are we winning when we do have the best hand at showdown, we're also winning some percentage of the time that we actually get a better hand to fold and we take the pot down without improving.

You're right to consider the frequency of the blinds calling, though I have no idea from where you got the 45-50% number.

-McGee

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explanation of the numbers:
15%: the likelihood to get dealt a pair of Ts or higher or a AK or AQ is about 4.5%. that means the probability that at least one of the remaining four players has one of those hands is about 17%. that might roughly be the range of 3-bet hands.

45%-50% just a wild guess. don't have numbers for that but as far as i experienced it, that comes close to reality.