Do you go with 88 here?

[PrayingMantis]

It's a $22 rebuy, final 2 tables, 12-13 left. I'm not in a great shape, pretty significantly below avarage. It isn't an easy table, since people are constantly calling PF raises or reraising over the top, and insisting on making all kinds of gutsy calls and huge bluffs. It's fun, but also a situation where you actually need some cards at some point... There isn't a realy big jump in prize-money until it's maybe 6th or 7th place at final table. At this stage all win about $220. First is about $5000, 2nd $3000, 3rd $2000 etc.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 ante 400 (6 handed) converter

UTG is a loose player (specifically a kind of loose caller), but since he raises UTG now, and he isn't very aggressive, I put him on relatively good hands, 99-AA, AJ-AK, KQ, something like that, maybe more maybe less. Button's call can mean many things, he can have some marginal crap here also. So the pot is ~62,000 when it gets to me. I am pretty sure that if I push UTG will call, and there's a nice chance button folds. So I'll be putting around 70K to win about 120K, when I'm around 3:2 dog against his possible range (there's also a small chance he and button fold of course, and also a chance that both stay in, which complicates things more).

SB (t109183)
Hero (t79508)
UTG (t138480)
MP (t88392)
CO (t67434)
Button (t141694)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t24000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t24000, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t79108</font>

Well?

[Allinlife]

i hate it. you have near no folding equity from UTG...and if UTG calls, so will the button and you will be playing 88 in 3 way pot where they'll just check their over cards.

I think you either gotta stop n go (rather gutsy vs 2 players) or fold this preflop.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it. you have near no folding equity from UTG...and if UTG calls, so will the button and you will be playing 88 in 3 way pot where they'll just check their over cards.

I think you either gotta stop n go (rather gutsy vs 2 players) or fold this preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I still think there's a pretty good chance button folds. However, surely this is not a FE spot. I'm doing it because of the juicy pot. Don't you think the pot gives me more than enough here with a medium pair?

[schwza]

if utg folds, button will see ~85k in dead money for a call of 55k. i don't think you're winning this pot without a showdown. the odds at this point are pretty high that you're up against at least one overpair, which is pretty unappealing. i fold.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
if utg folds, button will see ~85k in dead money for a call of 55k. i don't think you're winning this pot without a showdown. the odds at this point are pretty high that you're up against at least one overpair, which is pretty unappealing. i fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

The thing here, is that I'm much more "worried" about UTG's hand. IMO button (with the read I have on him and the play of this hand with stacks and position) can have a lot of crap he might fold if UTG pushes behind me. I think the scenario of UTG-folds-button-calls is much less probable, and actually, if it does happen, with the wide range I put button on, I still think its a very good spot with regard to the odds I'll be getting.

[schwza]

hmmm... maybe i wasn't putting enough stock in button's possibly have bad cards. if utg folds and you can flip button, that'd be great. obviously if utg folds and button calls with A6/44/etc that's uber-great.

do you think utg folds 99/TT here? you're showing a lot of strength with this play. the push is looking a lot better...

[bugstud]

I am honestly inclined to either fold, or stop n go. As stated, I don't like the push because it's hard to fold 99/TT here against most players.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think utg folds 99/TT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately no. I think this might be the most problematic part of this move.

Edit: He MIGHT fold 99.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I am honestly inclined to either fold, or stop n go. As stated, I don't like the push because it's hard to fold 99/TT here against most players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a stop &amp; go against 2 players (who are callers in nature) is marginal in this spot. I agree that it's hard to believe he folds 99-TT, but even with the full range I've mentioned, I think the odds are in my favour. If he even FOLDS some small % of the hands that beat me (or are about 50-50 against me) this is just a bonus.

It's not that I'm saying wow pushing is great, I'm just not sure I'm not getting too much overlay here in order to not push 88.

[mcteecho]

Was that last sentence a quadruple negative?