Never done this before

byronkincaid · #1 06-02-2005, 07:17 AM

I blame it on Daliman and his easy read post.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

Kristian · #2 06-02-2005, 07:28 AM

What is the buy-in? Any reads?
If answers are <100 and no, I say horrible fold.

pergesu · #3 06-02-2005, 07:31 AM

You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

You are not daliman.

curtains · #4 06-02-2005, 07:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I blame it on Daliman and his easy read post.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a truly dreadful fold for many reasons, one of which is that if one of your opponent's do have AA, you are basically getting the correct odds to draw out on them, especially with another player in the pot. And of course you simply can't know for sure.

You have 2 players who are playing very strangely, and it's almost for sure that one of them doesn't have AA. If one player can play like a loon without AA, two can also. There is just no possible way you can be this confident about your read with such a large % of your stack in the middle.

Even if you were correct, you made the wrong play, especially since you are getting about 5-1 on your money making the logical assumption that the cold caller is coming along for the ride.

byronkincaid · #5 06-02-2005, 08:14 AM

I'm probably starting to go a bit cris brown at the moment what with me running bad at the moment. Just had soooo many small reraises when I know they got AA and I call anyway with my KK. That seemed like a leak so I thought this time I'd do it differently. Not that it matters but here is the outcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t1020)
MP1 (t545)
MP2 (t1150)
CO (t1415)
Button (t2230)
SB (t878)
BB (t1195)
UTG (t1567)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t150, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, MP2 calls t450, 4 folds, UTG raises to t750, Hero folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t2025) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t817 (All-In), MP2 calls t400 (All-In).

Turn: (t3242) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3242) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3242

Results in white below: 
UTG has Kd Ks (one pair, kings).
MP2 has As Qs (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP2 wins t2825. UTG wins t417.

byronkincaid · #6 06-02-2005, 08:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You are not daliman.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes thanks for reminding me. We must be grateful for small mercies. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

jcm4ccc · #7 06-02-2005, 08:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

curtains · #8 06-02-2005, 08:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the probability that he doesn't have AA combined with the fact that even if he does you are getting okay odds makes this a relatively brainless decision.

Basically I think it'd be wise to save such monumental preflop folding decisions for those times when you dont have almost half your stack in the pot. Obviously I'm not suggesting calling if you know 100% that your opponent has AA (although I actually believe you probably should call if you know they both AA, but thats another story)

(Just found out that KK only scores 2% better against both players having AA....so maybe it's still a fold after all. I thought the EV would go up by 4-5%)

(While we are at it two more random yet cool facts:

1. If you know your opponent is pushing with any 2 cards, you would rather have AJs than AKo

2. If you know your opponent has JJ, you would rather have AJ than AT.

pergesu · #9 06-02-2005, 08:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 5-1, and the guy behind you is probably calling too. Plus implied odds if you hit a K. So even if homie has his aces face up you should be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are saying (and curtains says it too) makes no sense to me. If the guy shows you AA, there is an 80% chance that he will beat you. You will be out of the money 80% of the time, or you can have 600 chips to work with 100% of the time. If the guy shows me AA, I am absolutely folding. This is not a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or a big stack 20% of the time...and that's under the assumption that the guy shows you aces.

But account for the fact that he doesn't have aces. Maybe put him on a range of hands. Maybe say he'll do this with QQ+, AQs+, AKo. I dunno, pick a range.

The point is you can't peg him on aces - I think you said you haev no reads - thus 5-1 is just too good to pass up here.

The once and future king · #10 06-02-2005, 08:48 AM

Often on this forum the utterly important differance between TCEV and $EV is forgotten.

Whilst from a TCEV point of view this is no brainer, from a $EV point of view the fold needs more complex anaylsis.

I cant be assed to do the sums as I am currently 4 tabling.

Its not as clear cut as saying 80% of the time you bust, or 100% of the time you have 600 chips, as he wont have AA 100% of the time.

You have to make an assumption about how often he had AA to clarify if this fold was $EV.

No one has done that yet which is indicitave of the TCEV bias in the thinking on this forum.

That said I probaly never fold here.

Edited to add that alot of this post became redundant as I was typing it.