AQ in a large pot: anyone find a fold?

Dudd · #1 05-19-2005, 07:55 PM

This hand had me all sorts of confused. BB and MP2 had similar stats (approximately 60/9, so very loose), but I only had 11 hands on them so take those stats with a very small grain of salt.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

tipperdog · #2 05-19-2005, 08:03 PM

Button 3-bets pre-flop AND 3-bets a multiway field on an AKx rainbow flop? It is reasonable that he has anything other than AA, KK, or AK? I fold.

Was your AQ suited or not (your post title says "yes"; the hand says "no"). Obviously, if you held AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] folding the turn would be insane.

Nick C · #3 05-19-2005, 08:10 PM

When Button 3-bets the flop, I'm thinking there's a really good chance you're beat. And, annoyingly, if you are, you most likely only have runner-runner outs.

But I would have called down too. Button could have an equal or worse ace (or even some hand he's now greatly overplaying), and sometimes when he has AK, KK, or the one available AA, he'll just cold-call on the flop and come to life on the turn. (So the 3-bet doesn't have to mean you're in big trouble.)

Dudd · #4 05-19-2005, 08:11 PM

Forgot to add my read of the button: total donk. 45 VPIP, 33 PFR over ~50 hands. So, while it's possible he had AA, KK, or AK, his range looked like it could be very wide.

Nick C · #5 05-19-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add my read of the button: total donk. 45 VPIP, 33 PFR over ~50 hands. So, while it's possible he had AA, KK, or AK, his range looked like it could be very wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way I'm folding top pair against this player, with no one else showing much strength.

man · #6 05-19-2005, 08:22 PM

I would bet the turn and fold if popped.. but that's probably why I'm a longterm loser. in these places, you're almost always getting popped, so screw that. As for folding on the flop, maybe I'm too inexperienced, but I don't like folding for 23.5:1 (did I count that right?). I think to call the flop, and check/fold the turn is probably best. although folding to a bet on the turn seems weak as well. folding when you're getting 9:1 on your money (implied odds calc., I don't know if it's dead-on) seems like such a sin.

tipperdog · #7 05-19-2005, 08:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add my read of the button: total donk. 45 VPIP, 33 PFR over ~50 hands. So, while it's possible he had AA, KK, or AK, his range looked like it could be very wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's kind of important, don't you think?

At this point, the question is fairly academic. Button would have to be one heck of a donk to be 3-betting preflop and 3-betting on an AKx flop with Ax or JJ. But, if you think he could really be holding that type of hand here, then call down.

If you put him on AA, KK, or AK (which would be the hand range for a normal player in this spot), you should fold even if the pot were 3 times its current size.

athosandaramis · #8 05-19-2005, 08:58 PM

I must reiterate that if you were suited there is no way you can fold. But given your read, even with your off-suit top pair second kicker, the pot is just laying to much to fold. Everyone else is showing weakness to this three bettor who could very well be on a draw w/ diamonds or JTs. the 1/2 and 2/4 hold'em at Party have a lot of players who will play hands like this very fast. I thought you played it fine.

w_alloy · #9 05-19-2005, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add my read of the button: total donk. 45 VPIP, 33 PFR over ~50 hands. So, while it's possible he had AA, KK, or AK, his range looked like it could be very wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

This completely changes the hand. I cap flop and lead the turn, call down if you get raised.

I know this sounds rediculous, but with the 2 mega fish and a mega donk in the hand, you will be ahead more than 1/4 times and hence this is for value. The times you arent you need to fold a king who has 5 outs against you.

Dudd · #10 05-19-2005, 09:42 PM

The button ended up having AK, so I was drawing to running queens/runner runner straight from the flop on. The other two had TT and A9, so you can see the donk label fits well. I'm just in the middle of a 7k hand break even stretch and am trying to figure out where I'm going wrong.