Weak play, or right play

[drewjustdrew]

It might have been bad, but not awful in my OPINION (no proof). I'll give my thought process in response to a later poster.

[drewjustdrew]

These were most of the points I considered. As I said in another response, my play may not have been the best, but it wasn't horrible either. Too extreme.

[drewjustdrew]

8 times the big blind, but 4 times the cost per round. It was about $4000 per round. there are many more hands than two that i don't want calling here. Any ace, any king, AA, KK. Plus potential for suckout. In later position, i make the play, but with 7 to act behind me, 6 with substantially more chips, I figured a call was likely and I would be AT BEST a 66% favorite. Now, you think that is automatic, and maybe it is, but AT BEST means I could have been much lower.

[drewjustdrew]

The payout structures have flattened out since a lot of the literature on tourney play has been written. While finishing in top 3 or 5 is still the best result, it is not the end all be all of tournament goals. Especially when near the money.

If I have an average stack, I make the raise. I was at about the worst stack amount for my decision. I had enough to virtually guarantee making money, but not enough to force people to fold to an all-in if they held overcards.

I don't play weak-tight usually, and when I do I have strategic reasons.

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Remember tournament pros usually survive by winning a few tournaments a year, rather than cashing in many tournaments.

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There are not that many tournament pros surviving on tournaments.

[drewjustdrew]

marginal IMO (obviously)

[Potowame]

This is Bad Bad thought process.

I would push JJ and 1010 here with that stack, my bubble dosn't start till 20 players, I define the bubble for myself as the 20 - final table. Most of the time I am very aggressive around the "bubble" and it pays off when players are folding hands like QQ utg. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[drewjustdrew]

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Easy all-in. If this needs an explanation, by all means respond asking for one and I'll put a post together. Actually, I'd rather hear the reasoning behind folding, because I can't come up w/ a single one.

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OK, here is my explanation for any interested:

1. On the spot decision (no math calculated, just some very rough estimates)
2. I have 16000, Avg stack is 52000. There are 5 or so players behind me in chips (8000 or less), one of which will be knocked out soon. This guarantees me $120.
3. If I go all in and no one calls I go to $20,000.
4. If I go all in and am called and win, I go to $36000
5. If I go all in and lose (assuming the one short stack doesn't call). I am out. Result $0.

I would say at this point, stealing the blinds is the same as folding because $4000 is inconsequential, so the main issue is getting called. The odds that I am called are fairly substantial. The odds of me winning the tournament if I double up are still fairly remote, though not close to inconceivable. With $36000 on a double up, i have 2% of the chips. Therefore I should win 1 time in 50 all things being equal. $5200 for first place puts the value of winning at $104. With the payouts for placing 2-9,10-18,19-27 also being higher, it possibly would have been a no brainer decision if we ASSUME i double up and win the hand.

If we are not exactly on the bubble guaranteeing me cashing, I make the raise automatically.

I was fairly sure how the people here would post, but I made an unusual play and wanted to see if anyone would have made the same considerations I did. It sounds like Zaxx thought about it for a second and didn't go into autobet mode. Everybody else played their cards only (and may have made a better decision than me in the process). This should not be an automatic play.

[drewjustdrew]

My bubble changes based on my results leading up to the bubble. I think that should be a consideration when considering expected value.

[zaxx19]

Good analysis I was prepared to whip out the Donkey label and other assorted chidings...then remembered a MTT I had recently played. It paid 30 and like 10-30 were almost identical payouts bc it was a low buyin. Also there was a HUGE gulf in stack size between 1-13 and 13-35 that had developed for whatever reason( statistically this WILL happen at times) perhaps the fact that UB plays with its table assignments in odd ways iunno. In that case playing to cash might NOT be a horrible thing transgression there. I hate laying QQ anytime deep into a tourney and rarely have done it(perhaps 5 times??) and I probably DONT LAY IT HERE but in some situations the move maybe muddled at best.

[dmk]

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I would say at this point, stealing the blinds is the same as folding because $4000 is inconsequential

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I disagree here. $4000 is very consequential - it's currently 25% of your stack. If all of the short-stacks fold until they're blinded out, you'll be down to $8000 when the average is ~$55,000 and the blinds are bound to be 1500/3000 by then, which means you have 1.5 orbits left to live. $4000 is extremely significant to you right now.

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... so the main issue is getting called. The odds that I am called are fairly substantial. The odds of me winning the tournament if I double up are still fairly remote, though not close to inconceivable. With $36000 on a double up, i have 2% of the chips. Therefore I should win 1 time in 50 all things being equal. $5200 for first place puts the value of winning at $104. With the payouts for placing 2-9,10-18,19-27 also being higher, it possibly would have been a no brainer decision if we ASSUME i double up and win the hand.


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I don't like this kind of reasoning. That's like saying that by buying into a 2000 person event you have a 1/2000 chance of winning 1st, which pays out 400x buy-in. Hence, you're getting bad odds to play, so you shouldn't even enter. You can't just say "50 ppl left, i have 2% chance of winning." It has a lot more to do w/ your relative stack size and how much of a better player you are compared to the rest of the field - another reason you want more chips when you have an insanely good situation (like QQ...)
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If we are not exactly on the bubble guaranteeing me cashing, I make the raise automatically.


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Let me ask you this...if you have AKs or KK do you go all-in or fold? If so, you're putting your opponents that call on waaaaaay too narrow a range of hands. The difference between having KK/AK and QQ here are negligable. You're basically saying that opponents will only call your QQ raise w/ AA/KK/AK, which is completely weak thinking.
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I was fairly sure how the people here would post, but I made an unusual play and wanted to see if anyone would have made the same considerations I did. It sounds like Zaxx thought about it for a second and didn't go into autobet mode. Everybody else played their cards only (and may have made a better decision than me in the process). This should not be an automatic play.

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If making it into the money is your sole concern, then you made the right choice. If placing first is what you want to do in this tournament, then pushing is clearly the correct, and should be automatic, play.