Dumb river bet or not? Preflop play?

[purnell]

Results irrelevant. All comments/corrections accepted gracefully. Let's assume no player reads. Thanks!

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, SB folds.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

[easypete]

Looks pretty standard.

It's worth one bet to try for the pot (hoping that your opponent was on a flush or straight draw).

[chief444]

Looks ok. I think after you bet the turn betting the river is best. There aren't many better hands that will fold (although there are a few) but if you check you're setting yourself up to lose this to a bluff from a worse hand.

[Brian]

Hi purnell,

I don't think that this bet has positive long term expectation. You're going to have to pick up the pot 1 time in 5 to have +EV, and in my experience at the low limits, this just doesn't happen. I recommend value betting more often and bluffing rarely at the micros.

-Brian

[RicktheRuler]

I like the way you played the hand. The only thing you need to worry about on the river is if he made a boat, which is highly unlikely as he would probably not play q4 or t4, if he had Aces I would think there would be a raise in there somewhere to try and get you to go away. You may have tried a check raise at the end if he was aggressive--no read--but I think it is always best to get your money in the pot with no reads on anyone.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Judging from the board and the opponent's passivity, I would say that the opponent will be on a draw at least 1 in 5 times for our hero to be a winner. But I agree with Brian that the bet itself is unprofiable (but for different reasons) What kind of draws are out there that our hero can't beat? The only hand hero can fold that he's losing to is a K high flush draw. Any other draw our hero can already beat with the the J high and he's not going to get called anyways. Then you would assume that if the villian has a pocket pair or a piece of the flop and called the turn, he'd surely call the river (unless you think he'd fold the river with second pair which doesn't happen that often at micro levels) These factors combined leads me to believe the bet to be unprofitable. An important thing that the bet DOES do, however, is prevent worser hands from bluffing the hero out, where our hero would almost certainly have to fold any river bet, which is the only reason why I see in betting the river, because you're not going to be bluffing enough times to make that the sole reason.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
An important thing that the bet DOES do, however, is prevent worser hands from bluffing the hero out, where our hero would almost certainly have to fold any river bet, which is the only reason why I see in betting the river

[/ QUOTE ]
That was my thinking. I believe that is the only thing that makes this even remotely close as I agree there are very few better hands that would fold to a bet.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Yea, but if we agree better hands aren't going to fold, and clearly worser hands aren't going to call, what percent of the time will a worser hand bet the river if checked to, assuming its a worser hand in the first place. I don't see that sole line happening enough times to make the bet itself profitable though. I think our hero's hand will be good 1 in 5 times with a showdown, but the bet won't be good 1 in 5 times for it to be profitable.

[purnell]

Thanks guys. The biggest thing I've learned from this forum is that I was playing too passively. I'm working on it, but need to find the right level of aggression. Thanks for all the help!

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea, but if we agree better hands aren't going to fold, and clearly worser hands aren't going to call, what percent of the time will a worser hand bet the river if checked to, assuming its a worser hand in the first place. I don't see that sole line happening enough times to make the bet itself profitable though. I think our hero's hand will be good 1 in 5 times with a showdown, but the bet won't be good 1 in 5 times for it to be profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]
If the opponent bluffs with a worse hand 1 in 5 times or more and you fold but the opponent never raises as a bluff then the bet is good (not including those rare times a K-high or better folds). If the opponent rarely or never bluffs with a worse hand then checking is better. That's why I feel this is a close call. We really don't know how often this particular opponent would bluff. So I'm certainly not disagreeing that this is a -EV play. I really can't say for sure. But that was my thought process for saying in my first post I thought the bet was OK. I think a check would be fine as well absent a read on the opponent's bluffing tendencies. But this is definitely my main concern with whether or not to bet this river as opposed to just what better hands would fold or worse hands would call (very unlikely). If that were the only concern than it would be a clear check.