Old hand to rehash raise the flop/raise the turn debate

[karlson]

Dcifr's QQ hand and The Noted Poker Authority's response reminded me of this hand. This was a while back, so details may be sketchy, but close enough.

B+M 15/30, good game. I get black KK in the cutoff. 3 players limp, I raise, button cold-calls, blinds call. 6 to the flop.

Flop is 6s 7h 9s.

The player to my right bets out. He's a bit bizarre, this could be a number of hands. He is definitely too loose on all rounds though. I decide to call with the plan of raising the turn. The button raises behind me. Button is a halfway decent player, but cold-calls preflop with way too many hands, so even something like T8o is not out of the question. He could also be raising a draw here. Only one player folds, and the bettor just calls.

I decided that there was no way I was risking a free card on the turn by trying to checkraise the button. So since I was going to bet the turn anyway, I might as well collect an extra small bet from everyone now. So I 3-bet.

The rest of the hand wasn't very exciting. The turn was an offsuit Q. I bet and everyone called. The river was a blank and no one called my bet.

[Ed Miller]

This hand is different in a couple of significant ways:

1. You have kings instead of queens. Only one overcard can beat you instead of two.

2. You have only two opponents instead of three.

3. You are in middle position, and the flop raiser has the button. He could easily have just an eight and be looking for a free card. In the other hand, the flop raiser raised from early position into a whole field. That is more likely to be a made hand, rather than a free card play.

The main question is, "How often will I win this hand if everyone stays to the river?" versus "How likely am I to be able to knock players out on the turn?"

The higher the first number, the better 3-betting is. The higher the second number, the worse it is. 3-betting is terrible if the first number is less than 33% in this hand (or 25% in the other one).