did I induce bluffs or miss bets?

[karlson]

Standard question, just thought I'd try to get some thoughts on this specific scenario.

8-handed 15/30. Third guy raises first in. I've never seen him, but in the first few rounds, he's made the impression of being reasonable, if a little passive. I 3-bet in the CO with the minor suit AA, and it's heads up.

Flop is 9h 7h 2d. He bets and I call
Turn is the 9d. He bets and I call.
River is the 3d. He bets, I raise.

He showed me his hand, so I know the results, but I won't tell you what he did on the river.

[elysium]

hi karl
with the draw on board, you must bet to take down the pot right away. of course, that won't happen, but if it does, you don't care. you cannot sit around and be calling while the board is running away. you need to be raising and reraising at every opportunity on the flop.

raise the turn and call a 3 bet. your heads-up man. you're hand just improved. you must bet before the board gets any scarier. another flush card or pair, and you won't be seeing the action you're getting now. this is your last chance. bet! bet for crying out loud.

[HiatusOver]

I think you played the hand perfectly, raising the flop is a disaster. Raising the turn would normally be very acceptable but that is not a great card and you couldnt like a 3-bet. I like the river raise a lot, because there is a good chance 3 9's wont re-raise you, but you will get calls from as little as ace-high. Eulysium contradicted himself thoughout the post, something i have seen him do often lately

[Manzanita]

Karlson,

I think that raising on the turn is slightly more profitable than waiting until the river. Consider what your opponent may have.

If he is on a flush draw he will call your turn raise and check-fold the river when he doesn't get there. By just calling his turn bet I think that you'll miss a bet on the end (unless you get lucky and he bluff-bets the river).

If your opponent has two big cards (e.g., AQ) he may call you down when you raise the turn and bet the river. But if you just call his turn bet, he will usually not bet the river and he may not call your bet on the end.

If your opponent has an overpair, which appears to be the case, he is likely to call you down if you raise the turn and bet the river. Assuming that you just call his turn bet it is debatable whether he will bet the river or not. The reasons that he may not are that he has got to be suspicious that you have a big pair given the way that you have played (especially your 3-bet preflop), he may check the river hoping to induce a bluff on your part (hoping that you have something like AK), and most importantly, you said he was a little passive (in my experience, a lot of passive players choke on the end and are content to just check-call).

-- Manzanita

[astroglide]

answer: "it depends"

i think you played it fine.

[karlson]

So I pretty much agree with most of the comments, and in retrospect it's not that interesting of a hand. But he called and showed me KK, which really surprised me.

I thought his most likely hands when he bet the flop were something like 77-JJ, with some chance of a flush draw, or I guess in theory he could have had a set.

Against a more aggressive opponent I'd probably raise the flop hoping for a 3-bet. I think the fact that this guy may chicken out if an overcard comes on the river makes raising the turn right. I don't think he would fold a pair here.

Oh well. Thanks.

[DanZ]

If I had a nickel for every time I played this hand this way... ok, I gets lots of nickels every time...

the only way to make more is to raise the flop in the hopes that he comes back at you. Once he does, you may be able to raise later, but you'll often be beat if you do get action.

See poker essays 3 for a similar sitution. Much of the time, this player has QQ or JJ and is betting for information (which they will often ignore), and is not about to go to war with you.

If you appear to be a wild player to this opponent, rasing earlier has much more merit. Now he might want to get crazy with a paint pair.

Dan Z.

[HiatusOver]

>>>If you appear to be a wild player to this opponent, rasing earlier has much more merit<<<

very good point

[karlson]

This would be my default play. This time, however, I didn't think my opponent would 3-bet the flop with a hand like TT or JJ.

[SA125]

"raising the flop is a disaster."

I disagree. I think elysium is right. With a draw in h's out there, you must raise the flop.

Taking it down right there and losing bets is better than a couple of h's sucking you out cheap.

Your raising and ruining their implied odds, if they're on a draw, is correct poker play.

When the odds are with you heads up - raise.