Folding KK btf

[karlson]

I know I'm supposed to be able to get away from KK before the flop sometimes. I've done it once before (I haven't played all that much NL) but it seemed obvious then. I couldn't do it here. Should I have?

Four-handed, 1-1-2. I'm first in for 6, button folds, sb calls, BB makes it 32.

BB is an experienced player, and is quite aggressive. He has a huge stack, I have about 350, SB has about 300.

He's been coming over the top of my raises fairly frequently, usually betting the flop too. I make it 100, something I've only done once before (we'd been playing a couple of hours). I had TT and had to fold after he moved in on the turn on a scary board.

SB folds and he puts me all-in.

Probably some people will say "Well, you just have to know the guy, and know if he can only have AA here". If this is your answer, just tell me approximately what proportion of decent NL players you'd fold against.

Of course, I called and he had AA.

[Paul2432]

Probably some people will say "Well, you just have to know the guy, and know if he can only have AA here". If this is your answer, just tell me approximately what proportion of decent NL players you'd fold against.


This would be my advice. The answer depends not just on the opponent but also yourself. If you have been playing in a straightfoward manner, fairly tight, then he must certainly put you on either AA or KK to raise to 100. If he has KK then you are six times as likely to have AA as KK but he has set you all-in anyway. Unless you have some reason to think your opponent is not playing his A game (tilt) then I think you can strongly consider folding here.

One other quick thing. If you do fold here never show. As far as your opponent is concerned you were re-stealing and got caught.

Paul

[crockpot]

depends on your definition of decent. against anyone smart enough to analyze the betting and think before making a betting decision, i fold here.

paul's comments are very good here. if you fold and show, not only do you tell this guy you know how he plays (so you encourage him to mix it up against you), but you're telling the table that you can fold a hand like kings preflop, and people will start taking shots at you.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey. If he's good, you want to call preflop. Raising means AA QQ JJ wont make a mistake.

[tewall]

Your opponent's optimal bluffing % is 250/700 (the amount of his bet over and above his call over the amount that will be in the pot after you call), which is about 1/3. Your optimal calling % is 200/450, just under 1/2.

If you think the chance your opponent is bluffing is less than 1/3, then fold. If more than 1/3, call. If exactly 1/3, call about 1/2 the time.

Paul makes a good point, which is that the most likely hands your opponent has is KK and AA, and AA is much more likely than KK. So if he's not bluffing, he's very likely to have you beat.