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#21
12-21-2005, 01:51 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
Well the bet on the river is a semi-bluff kinda. I think you are right here that if he calls you on the turn you probably are behind and that is the reason for the bet. The draw won't call. But you might be able to take him off his hand with a bet. The raise on the turn is huge. It says "I have a monster." The call there usually means he doesn't WANT to believe you. And thats why I would bet the river, to make him believe me. I mean a check behind is ok too. But I think that a check behind on the river usually ends up you losing the pot. I guess the bet on the river would really depend on your read. Did this guy pick off a lot of river bluffs? Is he more inclined to call or fold here on the river? I think a check behind is the safest route but I don't mind a bet on the river here neither. Either play works for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#24
12-21-2005, 03:07 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah as I wrote, he's "sort of a donkey", he hasn't exactly been throwing his money at me. But when I call the turn what's the plan for the river? Pot will be $340 and we'll have lots of $$$ behind, and he's not the kind to make a blocking bet that's a min-bet. In other words I might face a close to pot be on the river. [/ QUOTE ] If you raise the turn, will he still be inclined to bet a worse hand for value on the river? If not, you can make a smallish (1/2- to 2/3-pot) raise on the turn and fold to a reraise or a river donkbet without committing as much as if you call turn and call a pot bet on the river. Basically, your turn raise is a blocking bet to set your price for showdown but its no good if a call of the turn raise followed by a river bet could possibly be a worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I don't see him 3-betting the turn or donking the river for several hundred with just a weak pair, so I like a turn raise to ~$300 for the reasons Ghazban says
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#25
12-21-2005, 04:33 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
Flat call and call a reasonable river bet. I don't think it's wise to raise and stick more money in with TPTK. I would love for someone to convince me this is the best line. I think when you flat call and keep the pot 'small', you have a better chance of getting to a showdown for a reasonable pot size.
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#26
12-21-2005, 04:38 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
[ QUOTE ]
Ghaz, If you raise you are putting in $250-350 with the possibility of folding. If you call you are putting in $100 on the turn + a possible river bet of ~$340 (probably closer to $300, maybe lower). $350-450 total If you raise and are ahead there he folds a weak draw (maybe), a crap pair, and a complete bluff. You make $100 in those instances. The times hero is ahead and villian calls the turn you make $250-350. However, you will often not get to showdown and whe you are behind you stand to lose $250-$350. If you call the turn the Villian is now given the oppurtunity to bet with complete air, a busted draw, and a worse pair (that he may believe is ahead). These times you now make $300-$450. If villian checks the river you make $100. If you are behind you stand to lose the $300-450. You also have the option (if so inclined) of bluffing a scarecard if you think you can push villian off of some random 2-pair. Plus, you now often have the benefit of seeing Villian's cards and getting a better handle on how he is playing. I dunno, sometimes I play passively, is this comepeltely unreasonable? (if villian is prone to overbets at all then this post should be completely disregarded) [/ QUOTE ] No. I personally don't understand the raise line myself and thought of it pretty much like you did. A worse hand is liekly not calling, and a better hand or even split ahnd may put you to the test. I really thought this was standard poker, but perhaps I have a lot to learn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#27
12-21-2005, 04:39 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] EDIT: Given the above, I'm not looking to fold (although if someone can make a persausive argument to do so I'd consider it). But I'm probably not looking to play a huge pot either as I'll almost surely lose if I do. [/ QUOTE ] If this is true, you have one option and its totally obvious. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but I could be facing another bet on the river... There's still the option of raising the turn and not putting any more money into the pot. [/ QUOTE ] let's say you raise to $300 and he calls. Now he leads the river for 2/3 pot. What are you going to do?
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#29
12-21-2005, 05:39 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
With that flop, I'd make it 60 on flop, planning to check turn, and play poker on river. If he calls 60, bringing the pot to 180 and comes at me with a 140 bet, i can fold.
I'm all for 2/3 type bets on flop, with the right flop, position, etc. This wasnt it tho, IMHO. As you played it, tough decision, I may call here.
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#30
12-21-2005, 06:53 AM
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Re: 400nl AK turn decision vs. deep opponent
[ QUOTE ]
I think when you flat call and keep the pot 'small', you have a better chance of getting to a showdown for a reasonable pot size. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, if he has a worse hand than you on the river You think he's slows down on the river with 2 pair + ? Also, if you call, the pot on the river is $340, so a decent bet from him is $200-$300, whereas a turn raise from you can be $150-$200 more. So I say that raising the turn is cheaper when you are behind
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