Too tight or just right?

Perseus · #1 10-30-2005, 07:08 PM

Villian was a 15/10/1 player, and I havn't seen anything special from him so far.

Am I getting anything by betting the turn?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

clownshoes · #2 10-30-2005, 07:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Am I getting anything by betting the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

A chance to win the pot. You can fold to a c/r.

SeaEagle · #3 10-30-2005, 07:27 PM

What was your logic behind checking the turn?

#4 10-30-2005, 07:33 PM

It looks to me from this action that the villain, has either 99,QQ, or ATs. On the river you are a 6-5 favorite to have the best hand so I would call. You induced a bluff by checking the turn so I think you must call the river. The mistake you made in this hand was not betting the turn, and thus you lost control of this hand. Betting that turn card should be easy since you can easily fold to a checkraise against most players, and you still may have the best hand.

bungyrocks · #5 10-30-2005, 07:43 PM

I would bet the turn, but since you didnt I would call the river 100% of the time.

Nick C · #6 10-30-2005, 08:33 PM

Although QJ and also hands like QTs/KTs can't be ruled out for Villain, it's more likely that one of you has a two-outer on the turn, and it's hard to say which of you that is.

I would bet the turn. I kind of doubt Villain will fold a better pocket pair or the other two jacks on the turn, but you never know. He's more likely to fold a worse pocket pair, which would now be looking at two overcards (including a dreaded ace), but that's okay. You're only losing value if you can get a bet out of the worse unimproved pair on the river. Otherwise, you're just giving infinite odds. (Or, if you're sure you're beat, you're saving a bet and chasing your weak draw for free. But I'm not at all sure you're beat.)

Anyway, I would probably call the river. I'd be expecting to lose, though. Villain's stats say he's not all that aggressive postflop, so when he bets the river, I'm thinking the chances he just has 99 or 77 or even J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] just went down (though your turn check did encourage that bet). Also, it's entirely possible he whiffed on a turn checkraise with his TT/88/AT. And there are other ways you could be behind.

I think the turn check would gain more merit if you had a read that Villain was very likely to fire on the river, no matter what he held, after your show of weakness on the turn.

Edit: Also, if you're confident that (1) Villain won't fold a better hand on the turn, and (2) a bet from Villain on the river will reliably tell you you're beat, then that's another scenario where I'd consider checking the turn.

W. Deranged · #7 10-30-2005, 09:52 PM

You really need to put in at least one big bet before giving up on this hand. Arguments can be made for:

1. Betting the turn and folding to a raise.

2. Checking the turn because you think villain is very unlikely to have more than 2-3 outs against you and villain will bet the river. In this case you check the turn very specifically to induce a bluff.

I bet here like 95% of the time, but in certain situations checking is right. The major point to realize is that you cannot simply give up on the hand because the A comes. By checking the turn, you are encouraging villain to bet a large variety of hands, including many hands you beat and bluffs. So you really need to call the river.

Shillx · #8 10-30-2005, 09:59 PM

I like the way it was played until the river fold. He has a pair just about everytime he bet-calls the flop. The check behind on the turn is good since you don't want to lose 77 or 99, but you have to call on the end if you are going to take this line.

TomBrooks · #9 10-31-2005, 12:37 AM

I would bet the turn since UTG showed weakness by checking it. He might have folded there. I wouldn't want to let him pair a Queen (like what came) or King with a free river card.