3/6 top set, am I still raising?

[chaos]

You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

[Buzz]

Hi Beernutz - Nice picture.

[ QUOTE ]
even though the top set may in fact be the one now on a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is indeed on a draw, and only playing for half the pot.

Hero does not have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot. Hero's only getting a one-to-one pay off on fresh money.

But even though two different straights are already possible, Hero would greatly increase his chances to win half the pot by knocking out an opponent.

Thus Hero's raise wouldn't be a value bet. Hero's raise would purely be an attempt to intimidate an opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps?

[/ QUOTE ]

You call the double bet. You have favorable odds to call the double bet.

If the betting gets capped behind you, the raise will have been a failure, but if hero just called in the first place, Hero would have been facing a double bet anyway. (Indeed it's more likely there will be a double raise behind Hero if Hero just calls).

If Hero raised and the betting was capped behind him, Hero would be getting something in the neighborhood of seven to one half-pot odds to call the cap. Since the odds against the board pairing on the river, from Hero's vantage point, are about four to one (against), Hero would clearly have favorable odds to call the double re-raise - and that's not even figuring Hero's implied half-pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps? Call 2 here or [yuk], fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd call. Because of the size of the pot, you'd have favorable odds to call. (way, way, way more favorable than you'd need).

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it make more sense to call and keep the other players on a draw in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Vee - No. You want them to fold, in case the board doesn't pair. Your top set may win here even though a straight is already possible. You don't want anyone drawing to and making a straight that isn't there yet.

At this point someone needs a 36XY or 68XY to have the straight. 36 and 68 are not favored two-card combos.

A2, A3, AA, KK, etc. are favored two-card combos. Nobody who knows what they're doing is playing a hand with 36 unless they have something like A2, A4, A5, AA, or maybe 24 or 25, to go along with it. It's even tighter for 68. (maybe A2, suited A3, or suited AA).

Buzz

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chaos, first thanks for responding. Second, I'm not sure the scenario where the trip jacks win 22 for an investment of 2 is likely to occur since that hand is already counterfeited for low. It is unlikely, IMO, for that hand to scoop both halves at this point given the fact that the turn is being capped. Won't it cost that hand 2 to win 11 (5.5:1)? The draw still appears to be +EV but not quite as good as previously reported.