I dislike AQ example 2

Perseus · #1 10-10-2005, 03:30 PM

BB Villian is 25/7/1 but only after 60 hands

MP3 is a passive calling station

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 calls, Hero ...

What's my plan?

W. Deranged · #2 10-10-2005, 03:39 PM

1. The pre-flop three-bet in my opinion is better here because the cold-caller is quite likely to have a hand that you are significantly ahead of (something like QJ, KQ, AJ and so on). With the likely-donkish cold-caller in between you and the raiser, a three-bet here works nicely because you likely have an equity edge and you can buy position and control of the hand and keep the pot short-handed.

2. Getting over 13-1 at this point I think you need to peel here. BB is not all that likely to have trips already since he called two out of the BB, and often would slowplay such monster flops anyway. Even with some discounting (to like 4.5-5 outs) I think we have clear odds to continue on here. I don't like raising because you don't have that strong a draw, there are not really any outs you can clean up at this point (because of relative position and the fact that you have the second-best possible overcards), and in such a big pot you are unlikely to be able to buy free-cards or to protect a possibly good best hand. You should acknowledge that there is a small portion of the time your hand is still best, but you can't protect it now anyway, and it is better to wait until the turn to reevaluate your holding and the action in front of you before deciding what to do.

3. By the time you get to the turn, the pot will again be pretty big, and you might be getting as much as 9-1 on your turn call. The decision to peel (or even raise) the turn becomes much closer, and you will need to use your reads of the opponents. I think that raising will sometimes be correct if, for example, MP3 folds and you have a read that BB is aggro and might be try to steal a widowed pot, or you think that he is simply on a draw. (You'd be taking a free showdown most of the time in these scenarios).

#3 10-10-2005, 03:55 PM

I'd bet that BB has a pocket pair, and lets assume MP3 will call down.

I would call the flop bet drawing to A or Q (4~6 outs). I expect BB to lead again on the turn, and if mp3 calls, you'll get 9:1, which is just enough to call, drawing to A or Q. But your outs are not necessarily clean, as either opponent may have pocket clubs (or a set or AK). Still, I think that any A or Q will give you the lead often enough to stay in the hand with mp3 subsidizing. If a club Q or club A falls, i just might raise and fold to a reraise. River play is straight forward. Of course any mp3 raise is scary. Also, I think some people might raise the flop or turn to try for a free card, but for me, i'd prefer to do that with more outs.

Nick C · #4 10-10-2005, 05:41 PM

It's too bad the flop sucks, because the hand got off to a pretty good start. (You gotta love it when someone raises preflop and then folds to your 3-bet.)

Anyway, I would call the flop. I suspect BB has a pocket pair. And I hope MP3 isn't stepping on some of my outs with a flush draw. But, chances are, he just has overcards too.

It's entirely possible I'd peel again on the turn. If MP3 folds to a turn lead, then maybe the showdown raise W. Deranged recommends is a good idea. I have trouble figuring out when to use those. If BB bets the turn, though, I doubt he has anything he's going to fold to a raise, so the main advantage of a turn raise that I see here occurs when BB only has a draw and will give up and not fire as a pure bluff on the river if he misses. Also, though, if Villain will get scared on the big broadway cards that improve you and check-call the river, then a raise does allow you to get three bets in on the big streets when you end up with the best hand while only paying two when you don't improve (well, so long as you were planning to call down anyway and also so long as Villain cooperates after you raise and doesn't stop-n-go on a river blank or 3-bet his TT on the turn).

So . . . I'm rambling. Someday I'll get the hang of these free-showdown raises.

Calling down is another option, but I'd be more inclined to do it against a more aggressive opponent. Calling the turn and check-folding the river unimproved is something else to consider, and against this BB, there's a good chance that's what I'd do.

If BB leads a blank turn and MP3 calls, then I'm probably calling in a pot of this size, planning to check-fold the river unimproved. If the turn is another club and the action goes bet, call, then I'm probably just giving up and folding.

HajiShirazu · #5 10-10-2005, 06:23 PM

I usually call the flop with the intention of folding most turns, but sometimes calling down if good cards (non-club, non 8/9) come on the turn and river and MP3 folds the turn. I will also usually bluff raise a king.

Alex/Mugaaz · #6 10-10-2005, 06:29 PM

I usually raise the flop on paired board when I'm in position. You never get 3bet unless they hit trips and you get a free turn virtually all the time. I fold the river UI, and fold the turn if bet into most the time.