AJ flop decision

[Perseus]

Can't bring up converter website for some reason.

3/6 at party.

Donk UTG limps. I have AJs in the CO and raise. Button is unknown and cold calls. Big blind calls.

Flop comes K44r, none of my suit. Checked to me, and I bet. Button raises. Folded to me.

Do I peel here?

Do I bet the flop into this big field?

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Do I peel here?

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No. You have 2.5 outs on average.

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Do I bet the flop into this big field?

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That depends on your grasp of the opponents. You may want to throw a bet out there for fold equity, but if you get any resistance, prepare to surrender.

[stigmata]

I would think we have more than 2.5 outs -- villain could easily have a medium PP, and very rarely have a 4. AK seems unlikely, more likely KQ or KJ. More like 3 or 6 outs in most instances, average 4ish to be on the safe side. Getting 11:1? it's bang on borderline. Given that if we hit the Jack it could just cost us more money, I just fold it and move on.

Easy flop bet into 3 opponents on this board - it's pretty unlikely to have hit anyone, your getting good odds, and it's a "believable" bluff. They don't have to fold that often, but they will more than enough.

[witeknite]

I agree with Stigmata. It is much closer than 2.5 outs. Since we probably don't have much in the way of implied odds if an A comes, and there is the prospect of reverse implied odds with a J, I think a fold is good here.

WiteKnite