sm pair + OESD, 2-suited flop

ellipse_87 · #1 08-22-2005, 10:46 PM

BB 25/16/infinite (yet to call when seeing flop) after 32;
UTG 22/0/4.0 after 9;
MP1 13/6/3.0 after 32;
CO 28/13/0.8 after 32

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero ....

******************

In deciding how to proceed, how much significance do you give

(1) the flush draw
(2) the chance of chopping with another 5
(3) the fact that a set may complete a straight

With position on UTG, my inclination is to raise, but there are three behind me.

@bsolute_luck · #2 08-23-2005, 06:22 AM

reraise to clear out any 7s or 3s, fold UI OC and buy outs for your 5s, pot is big. this is the only spot to protect your hand IMO.

#3 08-23-2005, 08:34 AM

I would just call.

Reasons for not raising
- You can not protect your hand against flush draws and overcards
- Many players are still to act
- A raise could scare X7 holders away (you want them in the pot as they are incorrect to call even when the pot offers them 15:1)

@bsolute_luck · #4 08-23-2005, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call.

Reasons for not raising
- You can not protect your hand against flush draws and overcards
- Many players are still to act
- A raise could scare X7 holders away (you want them in the pot as they are incorrect to call even when the pot offers them 15:1)

[/ QUOTE ]

point #1: with OC, this may be true, but to have them fold incorrectly is also worth a try in this large pot. flush draws: who cares about not getting them to fold, make them pay.

point #2: umm...i don't even get why this is a point really. anything to your 5 is an overcard, so getting any/all of these to fold improves your hand. aggressive in large pots to increase your chance of winning

point #3: incorrect. you WANT X7 holders to fold as they ARE getting proper odds (plus implied odds) to call the flop and you want clear them out for your 2 outer. an X7 holder has 4 outs to the gutshot, by calling you are offering them at least 13.5:1 and they only need 11.5:1 to call profitably.

this pot is too big to not fight over and put in an extra SB at this point in the hand to maximize your chances of winning.

#5 08-23-2005, 01:48 PM

lucky

I am still uncertain about the correct line here and would probably just call. My line of thinking is the following. A raise would be either to protect the hand or for value

IMO the hand is too weak for a value raise. A raise to protect the hand I can see if it can make OC to incorrectly fold since the pot is big.

However, given the fact that there are aggressive players still to act (which also probably limits the chances of a free card) I would tend to just call..

Flawed line? Too weak?

aces_dad · #6 08-23-2005, 02:08 PM

I would raise this for value and protection (want to fold UI overs) as you likely have the best hand at the moment and 8 outs to a straight (though 2 are diamonds) and one non-diamond to a set. I'd rather hit the straight than a set though as that completes a gutshot for any 2 or 7.

All your concerns are valid and a set may also complete a flush along with a straight. However you still have too much equity to give up, and calling allows too many draws that you're vulnerable to call profitably.

You're best chance to win this multiway pot is to raise this flop and reduce the amount of cards that can hurt you.

#7 08-23-2005, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

point #3: incorrect. you WANT X7 holders to fold as they ARE getting proper odds (plus implied odds) to call the flop and you want clear them out for your 2 outer. an X7 holder has 4 outs to the gutshot, by calling you are offering them at least 13.5:1 and they only need 11.5:1 to call profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand this logic. How does someone with X7 have 4 outs to the gutshot when you hold two of the 5s? They may think they have four outs, but we know that they have just two. Doesn't this make it more likely that we want them to call?

Overall though I agree we should raise because our pair is so unlikely to hold up in a multiway pot if we don't make the straight.

@bsolute_luck · #8 08-23-2005, 05:18 PM

hahah you're right about 2 outs to the gutshot. still doesn't change my recommendation as if we were someone with a 7, we would count 4 outs and most likely continue in the hand and you don't know what the "x" is.